Iran-Israeli Conflict Thread

A simpler explanation for the stop is that Israel had managed to rope the US into sending those bombers to attack those nuclear sites and they decided to "take profit" and cash out their gains before coming back for more.

Also out of curiosity, do you think Iran is doing some sort of 4d chess right now and is intentionally sacrificing the ayatollah and other senior figures as well as their regular navy as some sort of rope and dope strategy to exhaust all US/Israel military resources and at some point they are finally going to unleash some sort of secret weapon we haven't seen that will win wipe out Israel once and for all?
Not Iran.

The true Master of Muslims and False Jews.

Satan/Lucifer.

The secret weapon is called "tricking Americans into fighting another war for Israel to make Jews rich, Americans poor, and waste their time while paedophiles prey on innocents".
 
The current US death toll stands at 6 and the felt need to artificially inflate enemy casualty numbers is a sign of weakness by bloviating+ posturing. Making dumb and easily debunked claims is par for the course in that part of the world anyway, the Middle East and Indian Subcontinent are the worst.

As for following ridiculous claims, yesterday Iranian state owned media outlet Mehr News claimed a Iranian missile had struck a US warship and uploaded video game footage to prove it, just silly stuff. They have since removed it.


^There's also Iran having already lied about the ayatollah being alive the day he was assassinated. I was keeping track of more than one Iran observer slop X accounts claiming that he was about to emerge and give a speech the day of.
 
Reality is that we don't know the depth of Iran's missile stockpiles and launchpads. It's also not clear whether the Iranians were holding more modern type of missiles in reserve in June. What is clear though is that the USAF/IAF is working around the clock to destroy that missile infrastructure hence my emphasis on statistics and data.

What makes you think that Iran's missile inventory will not be replenished by China and N. Korea.

What do you think China's missile production capacity is, and how does it compare with to the US/NATO's interceptor production rate of a dozen per month.

Perhaps Eric Prince and the fired Joint Staff brass know something you don't.
 
^There's also Iran having already lied about the ayatollah being alive the day he was assassinated. I was keeping track of more than one Iran observer slop X accounts claiming that he was about to emerge and give a speech the day of.
What makes you think that Iran's missile inventory will not be replenished by China and N. Korea.

What do you think China's missile production capacity is, and how does it compare with to the US/NATO's interceptor production rate of a dozen per month.

Perhaps Eric Prince and the fired Joint Staff brass know something you don't.
Goku would beat everyone involved here, then get bodied by Jesus for the mass civilian casualties.
 
This whole perspective completely ignores a basic fact: if Israel wasn't suffering from the blows that they were getting from Iran, there is no way in hell they would have stopped bombing Iran.
The 12 day war was round one. When Tel Aviv was taking hits they called it quits so they could analyze the data and improve their defenses, now they are back and ready to do round two with less damage to their own and more to Iran and the Gulf States.
 
The current US death toll stands at 6 and the felt need to artificially inflate enemy casualty numbers is a sign of weakness by bloviating+ posturing. Making dumb and easily debunked claims is par for the course in that part of the world anyway, the Middle East and Indian Subcontinent are the worst.

As for following ridiculous claims, yesterday Iranian state owned media outlet Mehr News (and others) claimed a Iranian missile had struck a US warship and uploaded video game footage to prove it, just silly stuff. They have since removed it.





The naval episode in your argument here is a strawman.

Boats move, buildings and bases don't.

12 missiles in a 2020 Iranian attack with advance notice on a US base located in central Iraq yielded 110 injuries including several dozen serious brain trauma.

How many casualties would several hundred missiles launched at a dozen plus targets yield.

This is not a middle eastern or pajeet fantasy argument, it's a pretty basic logical exercise.
 
The 12 day war was round one. When Tel Aviv was taking hits they called it quits so they could analyze the data and improve their defenses, now they are back and ready to do round two with less damage to their own and more to Iran and the Gulf States.

The main reason they are doing Round Two is that they believe they can decapitate the mullah regime with a bombing campaign and the killing of top leaders. They're not built to go the distance, Round 3, 4, 5 would be disastrous going against a nation with a cult of martyrdom backed by the industrial might and military experience of China and Russia.

This wouldn't be the first time the Israelis have miscalculated due to their excessive hubris, see the Lebanon campaign of 2006, or more recently. the Houthi war, or Round One of this war.

As well, the Iranians also will be improving their offense with what they saw of Israeli defense, for example designing warheads equipped with multiple decoys.
 
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The Chinese leadership is ecstatic over this war, Iran is their Ukraine, the US/NATO/Israel are effectively getting into a war of attrition that is fought with missiles.

Without a quick regime change in Tehran, the US is going to be depleted of air defense in a matter of weeks, and the east Asia/Pacific front will be undefended.

This is what the Pentagon was worried about, but Trump had other priorities with the neocons simultaneously throwing hundreds of millions at him and breathing down his neck.
 
What makes you think that Iran's missile inventory will not be replenished by China and N. Korea.
.

There's a clear pattern on the narrative of supposed Russian and Chinese aid to Iran, you've been repeating this shtick for years, at some point these hopium laced takes lose their shine. List below is probably incomplete anyway, you're welcome to til in the blanks. Quick recap.


1. On August 23, 2024 you stated that Iran had received the S-400, S-500, advanced radars and advanced electronic warfare systems from Russia. Source brought up was Douglas MacGregor.

This turned out to be false.




2. On August 24, 2024 you stated that Iran had received the S-400 system as well as advanced electronic warfare equipment. The source brought up was none other than Douglas McGregor again.

This turned out to be false.


3. On October 24, 2024 you stated that Russia had delivered S400 and advanced radar systems to Iran.

This turned out to be false.



4. On July 8, 2025 you shared a post on the delivery of the advanced Chinese AD system HQ-9B to Iran.

This turned out to be false.




5. On July 9, 2025 you stated that China would deliver at least 40 J-10s to Iran which were probably already earmarked for delivery.

This turned out to be false.




6. On July 25, 2025 you stated that China is arming Iran and that Iran would receive J-10s and advanced Chinese AD systems before the end of 2025.

This turned out to be false.



7. On July 30, 2025 you stated that Russia had delivered S-400s to Iran. This time even with Russian advisors.

This turned out to be false.




8. On February 5, 2026 you shared a video on the delivery of Chinese YLC-8B radar systems to Iran.

This turned out to be false




9. On February 16, 2026 you stated that Iran might be in the possession of DF-21 anti ship missiles. For the first time in the list using a conditional, progress.

Either way, that turned out to be false too.




As for the why, because they don't want the smoke. Russia and China aren’t actively assisting Iran, and that's not going to change either. Russia is way too close to Israel and has its plate full in their piss poor efforts in Ukraine already. China is not much different, their entire long term strategy is structured around Taiwan and they will not upend that by risking direct conflict with DC. North Korea might unironically be the only rogue state with potential.
 
This is also why the decision to char the Macran Coast and take out the Iranian Navy is a big set back for Tehran, without their naval assets a partial blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is so much harder, even if they do manage to get a boat in open water they can't fuel it.

DC is betting on Beijing to restrain Tehran in imposing a full blockade. Changs should have enough leverage and Tehran doesn't want to tell their 'friends' that the Strait is now clogged and China just lost 20-25 percent of its oil imports with a ballooning price to boot. Proper assessment.


China would get first dibs on all Russian oil exports, plus shipments of Iranian oil on rail or through the Caspian/Russian route in addition to their current non-GCC supplies from around the world. They could start aggressively sidelining their ICE vehicles and encourage their populace to switch to EVs, which would stimulate their auto industry while reducing their demand for oil. In fact one of the main impetuses for China going all in on the EV industry is precisely this situation. There would also be a boom in EV demand in places like Thailand, Vietnam, Brasil etc.

The Chinese would also love to see Japan's economy get into a deep recession with oil prices at $150+.
 
I was getting the feeling after Syria shot down a Russian military plane with the Russian AD they'd given to Syria, after which Russia appeared to be making moves to support them less and less; as well as following Iran's shooting down of its own passenger jet with Russian AD, that Russia had concluded these people were too retarded to use their newest S-300 or S-400.

Maybe I'm wrong, but that's how it looked a few years ago and last year's attack on Iran seemed to confirm that neither Russia nor China was going to get involved much with defending Iran. Seems to be the pattern that needs to be disproven.
 
There's a clear pattern on the narrative of supposed Russian and Chinese aid to Iran, you've been repeating this shtick for years, at some point these hopium laced takes lose their shine. List below is probably incomplete anyway, you're welcome to til in the blanks. Quick recap.

As for the why, because they don't want the smoke. Russia and China aren’t actively assisting Iran, and that's not going to change either. Russia is way too close to Israel and has its plate full in their piss poor efforts in Ukraine already. China is not much different, their entire long term strategy is structured around Taiwan and they will not upend that by risking direct conflict with DC. North Korea might unironically be the only rogue state with potential.

You're right about the slow pace and extent of the delivery of large, bulky systems and extensive networks of hardware, perhaps this also explains the sense of urgency in Israel wanting to strike Iran sooner rather than later, but China has already delivered sensitive material for Iran to produce and improve its missiles, rare earths and guidance systems compatible with the Chinese BeiDou systems, and has been actively supporting Iran with ISR.

We could also find out down the road that the Chinese might have been involved in the downing of the three F-15s through disruptive EW, the first time after over 50 years that an F-15 was ever downed. One plane could be incompetence, but 3 in a row, with the pilots not even putting up active countermeasures or evasive action, is pretty weird.

Both China and N Korea have assisted Iran in improving their missile tech.

You're right about China wanting to avoid direct conflict with DC, but they might like a proxy war of attrition with Iran as their battering ram. If NATO can get Ukraine to sacrifice 2M plus men in an attempt to weaken Russia, Iran would be good for a few hundred thousand martyrs too, a walk in the park compared to the million dead in their war against Iraq, when their back wasn't even against the wall.

The Russians as well can now retaliate if Trump and NATO give Ukraine increased capacity to strike deep into Russian territory by providing Iran with the capacity to sink ships as far as the eastern Mediterranean or the Arabian Sea, a capacity that China also shares.

We're really in uncharted waters, no one knows where this is all headed, but I doubt the Chinese are going to let Iran go, it is too close to home and the stakes are high.
 
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@Cooper
@LaAguilaNegra

I'm gonna go ahead and preemptively remind You to keep it civil.
Argue on merit. Do not trade personal blows.

Hey it's all good, it's Purim tonight and we're in good spirits! 😂

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