Geopolitics Lounge

The Venezuelan Supreme Court of Justice has ordered a plebiscite to be held on the future of the Essequibo region. This referendum will be held on December 3.

Essequibo is the subject of a territorial dispute between Venezuela and Guyana. The dispute stems from the days of the British Empire and currently it is administered by Guyana. Essequibo comprises of about 2/3s of Guyana's territory.

Venezuela says it wants to win Essequibo over by Peace Diplomacy. Guyana something worse. Venezuela also alleges the USA is militarizing the area. There are many newly discovered oil fields in Essequibo, as a result Guyana's GDP will grow by 38 percent this year.

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LaAguilaNegra said:
The Venezuelan Supreme Court of Justice has ordered a plebiscite to be held on the future of the Essequibo region. This referendum will be held on December 3.

Essequibo is the subject of a territorial dispute between Venezuela and Guyana. The dispute stems from the days of the British Empire and currently it is administered by Guyana. Essequibo comprises of about 2/3s of Guyana's territory.

Venezuela says it wants to win Essequibo over by Peace Diplomacy. Guyana something worse. Venezuela also alleges the USA is militarizing the area. There are many newly discovered oil fields in Essequibo, as a result Guyana's GDP will grow by 38 percent this year.

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There hasn't been a genuine plebiscite like this since 1938. I pray it gets resolved peacefully, but if there are expendable resources involved that can keep one population starving under socialism and one profiting off of the extraction, there will be some glowing interventions. Hopefully these people can see past it.
 
Very interesting Twitter thread on the current situation in Myanmar's Shan province. Myanmar's borderregions are quite lawless, and local warlords make a lot of money smuggling drugs into China (neighboring Yunnan province has that same association in China).

The Myanmar junta has been considered friendly to China but it seems this is slowly changing. The junta has lost control over the borderregion with China and it seems China is not too concerned about the fate of the junta.



Most of the borderregions in Shan state are populated by Han Chinese that were drawn outside China's border during Qing era border agreements. Most of the warlords are Maoists and some have modeled their territory and structure on CCP/China (Wa State for instance).

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Wa State in Myanmar. Even the traffic officers uniform is modeled after China.

 
MusicForThePiano said:
There hasn't been a genuine plebiscite like this since 1938. I pray it gets resolved peacefully, but if there are expendable resources involved that can keep one population starving under socialism and one profiting off of the extraction, there will be some glowing interventions. Hopefully these people can see past it.
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The sudden emphasize is very strange. It's been a dispute for 100 years. Maduro is a bit weird but I cannot imagine he would actually use this plebiscite as some sort of popular legitimatization to invade another country.

Venezuela is a basket case state already.
 
Xi JinPing has arrived in San Francisco for the APEC meeting. He'll be meeting with Biden and all the others bigwigs in tow.

Many of the pro Russia and even pro Russia channels are a bit worried about the purpose and content of these meetings. Basically they fear China and the US will strike a deal centered around reversing the recent deterioration in ties.

Chinese government mouthpiece The Global Times:

 
LaAguilaNegra said:
Xi JinPing has arrived in San Francisco for the APEC meeting. He'll be meeting with Biden and all the others bigwigs in tow.

Many of the pro Russia and even pro Russia channels are a bit worried about the purpose and content of these meetings. Basically they fear China and the US will strike a deal centered around reversing the recent deterioration in ties.

Chinese government mouthpiece The Global Times:

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China's having their own internal struggles also... And they still need us to buy things from them.

Had the chief security officer and spokesman (a former US prosecutor) for Huawei in one of my classes last semester...He's a skill for the CCP, but it was interesting that he was fairly open that both the Biden admin doubled down on Trump's anti China trade policy.
 
Get2choppaaa said:
China's having their own internal struggles also... And they still need us to buy things from them.

Had the chief security officer and spokesman (a former US prosecutor) for Huawei in one of my classes last semester...He's a skill for the CCP, but it was interesting that he was fairly open that both the Biden admin doubled down on Trump's anti China trade policy.
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Any stop or reverse of deterioration will be temporary. China remains its mercantilist character and doesn't learn from others' (Russia) lessons. The Chinese truly believe that 'mutual benefits', 'cooperation' and of course 'deepening trade links' trump foreign meddling, soft power, culture wars and holding hardly any power in the infosphere.

The security situation in the Indo Pacific is deteriorating quite rapidly. I have yet to figure out China's grand strategy beyond aforementioned mercantilist slogans. We know about the 9 dash line, the BRI, lowering dependency on the USD, the naval build up but beyond that? They seem terribly slow in anticipating changing circumstances - which is a characteristic of authoritarian highly centralized political structures. Now they might patch up with the USA. Does China even do diplomacy?

Brian Berletic is the point in case. He understands that the USA is simply buying time. They are absolutely going to take a shot at China. But he feels frustrated by China's slow and at times absent response. So he keeps on yapping about muh tradelinks and muh railway lines whilst he damned well understand the US will simply pick, break and flip South East Asian countries one after the other whilst militarizing the region + the Indian subcontinent + Japan. Does Beijing really believe they can go back to the pre 2015 days?

Anyway the meeting is yet to be done but the reporting of the Global Times kind of already spilled the beans.
 


There are times I wish we have the same approach as Mexico and outlawed other countries flags on display ...

It'd sure quell somebody the side taking over the last couple years/weeks/ months regarding foreign wars.
 
LaAguilaNegra said:
The security situation in the Indo Pacific is deteriorating quite rapidly. I have yet to figure out China's grand strategy beyond aforementioned mercantilist slogans. We know about the 9 dash line, the BRI, lowering dependency on the USD, the naval build up but beyond that? They seem terribly slow in anticipating changing circumstances - which is a characteristic of authoritarian highly centralized political structures. Now they might patch up with the USA. Does China even do diplomacy?
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The ability of modern China to engage successfully in any meaningful theatre of operations militarily is questionable at best. The track record isn't strong, from the days of WWII and Korea to Viet Nam, Indochina, and more recent border skirmishes with India and UN banner operations in Africa.

One can lambaste aspects of the US military all one wishes to, but to carry out sustained, high-temp carrier ops, logistics, and force projection is something the US and only the US does alone. And it takes more than floating out a 75% Xerox of a Kuznetsov and driving it around a 500-mile radius of the mainland to harass Filipino fishing trawlers.
 
dicknixon72 said:
The ability of modern China to engage successfully in any meaningful theatre of operations militarily is questionable at best. The track record isn't strong, from the days of WWII and Korea to Viet Nam, Indochina, and more recent border skirmishes with India and UN banner operations in Africa.

One can lambaste aspects of the US military all one wishes to, but to carry out sustained, high-temp carrier ops, logistics, and force projection is something the US and only the US does alone. And it takes more than floating out a 75% Xerox of a Kuznetsov and driving it around a 500-mile radius of the mainland to harass Filipino fishing trawlers.
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Fact. I've made this point many times also, but it's lost on many who've not served or just don't understand how force projection works.

Our sustained logistics caps are ahead of all peers in all aspects.
 
Argentina's new president will be Milei.

Not sure what to make of it.. He's got some good ideas on weapon ownership, small government, central banking and communism.

But he's a raging Zionist and Jewish convert that worships the US Dollar to the point that he wants to dollarize the Argentinian economy (byebye sovereignty?)

Obviously this will also kill Argentina's BRICS acsesion.

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US' main geopolitical thinker and executive for the last 50-60 years (up until his death, he was in Beijing trying to salvage the China Project couple of months ago) is dead.

 
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