Not necessarily California, as many other areas also have this problem today.
This is old news and the tide has already shifted in the opposite direction. Real estate is local, so I can only speak for my area, but I’ve watched it like a hawk since 2019 and this is what I have observed:
*mid 2022 was the end of the hot market (for my area). Everything since has been a downhill slide since interest rates went up.
*Real numbers, same house:
2019- $260,000 mortgage, $52,000 down, 4.5% interest rate, $900 home insurance, $4800 property tax: $1530/month
2022: $535,000 mortgage, $52,000 down, 6.5% interest rate, $2000 home insurance, $7,200 property tax: $4170/month
*people are TAPPED OUT. Everyone just threw in the towel and accepted crazy high prices. I know people trying to sell for over a year and half in overpriced HOA neighborhoods and it’s not gonna happen. The amount of car notes that are $1000 a month, credit card debt and Affirm/Klarna debts, etc., are at all time highs. Many are/will find themselves underwater on their homes (definitely in my area) and this will, at the very least, obliterate their downpayment for a next home. It’s not uncommon to already see sellers listing homes for 30-60k less than what they paid in 2021-2022, and that’s before the 6% agent commission. The pool of buyers able and willing to finance homes at crazy payments is much smaller now.
*just looking at social media, in 2022-2024 there were tons of people building brand new homes or doing extensive renovations. I don’t see that same volume this year, not anywhere close
*amount of foreclosures and unfinished construction shells for sale has significantly increased. Lots of auctions active.
*I’m nosy and if a property has certain characteristics I’ll cross check the owners name in public or court records. Many people are getting sued by their credit card companies and selling homes due to general insolvency…. A lot put fantasy football/online gambling debts on credit. Yikes.
*A lot of people with student loan debt bought in 2021-2024. This pervasive feeling that loans would be forgiven, or at least that the old payment plans would be kept, 0% interest SAVE plan. These plans that let you pay $0 per month for 20 years are mostly gone, you will be paying a minimum of some kind, and for a $30k loan that’s like $300 a month. I already see people crying online that they have a mortgage, big car payment, and now their $100k student loan repayment is $1100/month. That’s a huge increase the average person is not prepared to absorb. The fiasco will really start in 2028 when everyone will be forcibly kicked off SAVE.
Outside of markets in the North East currently, any market that was hot the last couple years is going to see major price cuts coming up. People just need to be patient and clear up any debt they have and things will improve. There are soooooo many houses under 300k, even 250k now in areas where you couldn’t dream to find such prices even a year ago. Yes, location dependent, high insurance rates and flooding is a major problem, but this still applies to older homes with decent bones that have new roofs, not in flood zone, and just need cosmetic work.
It’s cheaper to buy a new construction McMansion right now than a used house. Many are under $300k with interest incentives. It’s also still pretty expensive to renovate, so older homes will continue to decrease in my opinion. Since it takes several years for permitting and plans, many huge developments are still in the process of being built.
Playing around with the payment tool on Zillow, homes will either have to decrease to 2019 prices or interest rates will have to be totally slashed for affordability to return. Unless you have a huge downpayment, it’s still cheaper to rent than buy, which is not sustainable. Huge companies like Invitation Homes paid cash for their properties, so they can continue to slash rents and private landlords, homeowners who are choosing to rent their houses out because they won’t sell, and mature AirBnBers are really gonna get screwed. You can’t cash flow most of these homes.
Prices will come down, but there will be much gnashing of teeth.