Bitcoin and Crypto Thread

[chance vought]

Misconceptions regarding cryptocurrencies as an alternative to fiat

Caveat emptor.

neofeudalreview.substack.com

I stumbled upon this the other day and encourage you guys to read it. It's a nice writeup on Tether that has links to several other even more detailed breakdowns. It's interesting that the author of this piece independently arrived at the same conclusion I've voiced in this thread previously - that Tether has been captured by the U.S. Deep State and is being used for laundering money, paying bribes to corrupt politicians and funding off-the-book black operations. Regardless whether or not that's true, it's clear that Tether is functioning as Bitcoin's own Federal Reserve, and has massively inflated the price over the past several years. If Tether implodes, the damage it will inflict on Bitcoin - and on the entire crypto ecosystem - will be incalculable. It's a ticking time bomb, and one that the Deep State can very likely detonate at will. Why would they do that? Well, it's much easier to sell and justify the introduction of a government-backed CBDC after Bitcoin and all other cryptos have essentially been destroyed in a controlled demolition.

A good article, @scorpion
You seem to think that Tether needs to be backed by USD, at 100%. What are your bank deposits backed by? Are they backed by USD at a ratio of 1:1? Not even close. They aren’t required to be backed 10:1 or even 100:1. Ironically, Tether probably has more backing than most FDIC banks in the US.
The HELOC I took out in order to buy Bitcoin: that money didn’t exist until the bank created the loan. I bought Bitcoin with nothing.

Even if Tether were 100% backed by USD…what are dollars? No longer 1/20 oz of gold. They are digital nothing that can be counterfeit ad infinitum by banks, to steal your time. We are in a period in history when you can trade worthless, infinite digital tokens for valuable, scarce ones. This is only possible, because of information asymmetry…if everyone had perfect information, no amount of dollars could buy 1 bitcoin.

The more fiat is created to buy bitcoin (fake fiat? It’s all fake!), the more fiat collapses.

 

[Blade Runner]

What are you talking about? I understand that you're a greedy, gambling crypto jew who wants to teach young men to get in bed with dark arts pedophiles using untraceable bitcoin.

Your comments are beyond bizarre. An antidote would be to just buy and hold BTC, and think about doing more study of it, as nothing you say has helped people - quite the contrary, in fact, as I have pointed out.

There's literally no reason you would prefer Bitcoin over gold in this role. If I have 100 tons of gold sitting in a vault, that's something real and tangible that actually exists. It cannot be ignored. If I have $100 billion worth of Bitcoin, I have entries on a shared ledger, and my Bitcoin only has power insofar as others recognize the importance of those ledger entries.

You still don't understand centralization or counter party risk. I guess you never will. We gave up on the "value" assessment angle long ago, since after a while we don't have time or energy for people who refuse to listen and read.

It wouldn't take much work from blue state AGs and/or the FBI to have a huge negative impact on crypto exchanges. Trump has not been elected king - even with a sweeping mandate he will still have a LOT of opposition within the existing government bureaucracy, both at the state and federal levels.

God State complex is back! In the face of it not being around anymore --- ooh, we're scared. You can't make this stuff up. Do you walk around talking about how others having fun are actually going to hell? lol - seems like a waste of time to be that negative

Major powers have no incentive to focus on Bitcoin and are much better off focusing on managing their own sovereign currencies

It's funny how you continue to find new ways to be more wrong than ever, when all the evidence is otherwise.

If Tether implodes, the damage it will inflict on Bitcoin - and on the entire crypto ecosystem - will be incalculable

Is that you Mike Green? Oh yeah, 2022 is paging you and wants all that crow you are eating.

 

[chance vought]

The Tether doomsayers are hilarious, after bitcoin has “died” over 500 times already.
Anti-fragile: bitcoin is the very definition of that word.

 

[Blade Runner]

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They didn't listen to me on this either. Hmm, I wonder if buying stocks now is also something that criminals do?

It's fun making nonsense arguments up on the spot. Especially when I'm poorer than I should be!

 

[scorpion]

You seem to think that Tether needs to be backed by USD, at 100%. What are your bank deposits backed by? Are they backed by USD at a ratio of 1:1? Not even close. They aren’t required to be backed 10:1 or even 100:1. Ironically, Tether probably has more backing than most FDIC banks in the US.
The HELOC I took out in order to buy Bitcoin: that money didn’t exist until the bank created the loan. I bought Bitcoin with nothing.

Even if Tether were 100% backed by USD…what are dollars? No longer 1/20 oz of gold. They are digital nothing that can be counterfeit ad infinitum by banks, to steal your time. We are in a period in history when you can trade worthless, infinite digital tokens for valuable, scarce ones. This is only possible, because of information asymmetry…if everyone had perfect information, no amount of dollars could buy 1 bitcoin.

Tether is clearly a gigantic fraud machine. Those articles I linked prove that beyond reasonable doubt. Given that they ostensibly have the world's most simple business model, the fact that they can't pass an audit is as ludicrous as it is alarming. It's also ridiculous and totally hypocritical that you sit here and level all manner of criticism at fiat money printing but turn a blind eye when Tether is operating the exact same way. Further, there is literally nothing that makes Bitcoin's "scarce" tokens valuable except the shared delusion of those who buy and hold them. If Bitcoin completely disappeared from the face of the earth tomorrow humanity would lose absolutely nothing.

You still don't understand centralization or counter party risk. I guess you never will. We gave up on the "value" assessment angle long ago, since after a while we don't have time or energy for people who refuse to listen and read.

Physical gold has zero counter-party risk. You claim that Bitcoin does - but Bitcoin is still reliant on its network of miners to support it. Indeed, Bitcoin basically exists only as its network. You can't really even possess a Bitcoin(s). You simply have an entry on a shared ledger.

It's funny how you continue to find new ways to be more wrong than ever, when all the evidence is otherwise.

Is that you Mike Green? Oh yeah, 2022 is paging you and wants all that crow you are eating.

You obviously didn't read the main article or the other articles it linked to.

 

[GoodShepherd]

At some point, but the next few years are not the time. That $5k vacation is actually $500k in 10 years. I will borrow against it, maybe, but won’t be selling for anything until it is the dominant money.

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Ok I see, so I remember you once said you would be able to take a loan against your bitcoin without having to pay it back, an article you shared, something along those lines.

For me personally I wont be going this route i will be cashing out a certain percentage when I need to especially during these spikes.

 

[chance vought]

[

Ok I see, so I remember you once said you would be able to take a loan against your bitcoin without having to pay it back, an article you shared, something along those lines.

For me personally I wont be going this route i will be cashing out a certain percentage when I need to especially during these spikes.

This is not a spike…this is nothing. $85k is just the beginning.

Selling is the wrong strategy. Why sell something that is holding its value, for fiat that is losing value?

To pay off the loan: take out a new loan to pay off the old one. If I had an outstanding loan on 1 BTC, for $10k, but BTC is now $100k, I could use another BTC as collateral for a $20k loan, pay off the old loan, and buy 0.1 BTC with the extra $10k.

If BTC goes to $1M, I take out a new loan, using the 1 BTC I had on the $10k loan. For that BTC I get $200k loan, pay off the old $100k loan, and buy another 0.1 BTC with the extra $100k. Infinite money printer (until fiat collapses.)

I’m not counting how many fiat dollars I have - I am counting the amount of bitcoin I own.

If I have less bitcoin at the end of the year, instead of more, I am losing wealth.

Selling BTC incurs capital gains taxes, and the lost appreciation of 50% annually, vs holding the asset and simply using it as collateral for infinite fiat money.

 

[GoodShepherd]

[

This is not a spike…this is nothing. $85k is just the beginning.

Selling is the wrong strategy. Why sell something that is holding its value, for fiat that is losing value?

To pay off the loan: take out a new loan to pay off the old one. If I had an outstanding loan on 1 BTC, for $10k, but BTC is now $100k, I could use another BTC as collateral for a $20k loan, pay off the old loan, and buy 0.1 BTC with the extra $10k.

If BTC goes to $1M, I take out a new loan, using the 1 BTC I had on the $10k loan. For that BTC I get $200k loan, pay off the old $100k loan, and buy another 0.1 BTC with the extra $100k. Infinite money printer (until fiat collapses.)

I’m not counting how many fiat dollars I have - I am counting the amount of bitcoin I own.

If I have less bitcoin at the end of the year, instead of more, I am losing wealth.

Selling BTC incurs capital gains taxes, and the lost appreciation of 50% annually, vs holding the asset and simply using it as collateral for infinite fiat money.

A person needs to buy things sometimes or an emergency comes up, thats what Im talking about, I wouldnt be withdrawing into fiat just to let it sit in my bank account, thats dumb, its to be used, Sometimes an opportunity or business deal might cross my path, for example, I once did a business deal and I doubled my money in 30 days, quite a large sum.

Yes thats what I remember you mentioning some time back, taking out loans, Im not knowledgable enough for that kind of thing yet you far ahead of me in this, with time I will learn.

 

[Lonewolf1968]

Gentlemen, all Maxi vs No coiner discussion aside here is the NUPL for today, I bought on red and orange in 2023, and sold in green back in May in the midcycle top. We're back in Green but just got in. I don't think we'll reach blue due to diminishing returns.

 

[JayR]

A person needs to buy things sometimes or an emergency comes up, thats what Im talking about, I wouldnt be withdrawing into fiat just to let it sit in my bank account, thats dumb, its to be used, Sometimes an opportunity or business deal might cross my path, for example, I once did a business deal and I doubled my money in 30 days, quite a large sum.

Yes thats what I remember you mentioning some time back, taking out loans, Im not knowledgable enough for that kind of thing yet you far ahead of me in this, with time I will learn.

My plan is to exit the same way I entered -- DCA (BCA?) out when I retire (which is a lot closer after the last few days) .

Knowing that I could unload some for quick fiat in the case of emergency is a nice-to-have option, but the plan is to hodl until retirement.

 

[chance vought]

A person needs to buy things sometimes or an emergency comes up, thats what Im talking about, I wouldnt be withdrawing into fiat just to let it sit in my bank account, thats dumb, its to be used, Sometimes an opportunity or business deal might cross my path, for example, I once did a business deal and I doubled my money in 30 days, quite a large sum.

Yes thats what I remember you mentioning some time back, taking out loans, Im not knowledgable enough for that kind of thing yet you far ahead of me in this, with time I will learn.

Ok so don’t use all the excess loan value to buy more bitcoin, use some to live on and the rest to buy more bitcoin

TLDR you should never be selling bitcoin: only borrowing in fiat

 

[chance vought]

Silver is behind us now

 

[Blade Runner]

If Bitcoin completely disappeared from the face of the earth tomorrow humanity would lose absolutely nothing.

At this point I come here just for laughs.

Physical gold has zero counter-party risk.

Not if you actually want a money that is global with a global (and not local) network. Again, I have some gold, but why is gold going down right now? Probably because stocks are better right now, and BTC is already known to be better.

Selling BTC incurs capital gains taxes, and the lost appreciation of 50% annually, vs holding the asset and simply using it as collateral for infinite fiat money.

The only reason you'd do it would be if you hold a proxy and you are worried about the cycle issues, OR you have high conviction that you can sell it and buy it back. I wonder if the power law guy still thinks it will go back to this level after it reaches the mid power range level of ~200 next year.

 

[chance vought]

At this point I come here just for laughs.

Not if you actually want a money that is global with a global (and not local) network. Again, I have some gold, but why is gold going down right now? Probably because stocks are better right now, and BTC is already known to be better.

The only reason you'd do it would be if you hold a proxy and you are worried about the cycle issues, OR you have high conviction that you can sell it and buy it back. I wonder if the power law guy still thinks it will go back to this level after it reaches the mid power range level of ~200 next year.

I’m all for sticking with a “plan” during the emotional bull market. However - a strategic reserve changes EVERYTHING. I’m not sure how likely that would be, and it would probably lead to a successful assassination.

 

[Blade Runner]

It looks like we'll be getting where I said we would by Thanksgiving. But we'll see, it could easily retrace back to high 70s after moving up really fast.

What is the highest price you think it touches next year, @chance vought?

 

[scorpion]

At this point I come here just for laughs.

Not much of a rebuttal to my argument, but then again I don't blame you, since the point is indisputable even for Bitcoin maxis. If all BTC suddenly vanished off the face of the earth, 99% of the population wouldn't even notice. That fact doesn't really square with it being "the most valuable asset on the planet", does it?

Not if you actually want a money that is global with a global (and not local) network. Again, I have some gold, but why is gold going down right now? Probably because stocks are better right now, and BTC is already known to be better.

Do you think BTC would have cratered 30% in a week if Kamala had won? We're obviously just riding the Trump election wave with this pump. I mean, Dogecoin is up massively more than BTC in the past week. Is it also "known to be better" than stocks and gold? The entire thing is completely retarded, but you guys will embrace any rationalization for the line going up.

 

[chance vought]

It looks like we'll be getting where I said we would by Thanksgiving. But we'll see, it could easily retrace back to high 70s after moving up really fast.

What is the highest price you think it touches next year, @chance vought?

2 sigma is $700k and I think that is possible, if not likely

 

[FrancisK]

My advice for any investment would be not to listen to anyone who is trying to convince you not to take a profit.

 

[JayR]

My advice for any investment would be not to listen to anyone who is trying to convince you not to take a profit.

It's important to have an exit strategy before entering into any investment so you can tune out the noise and execute.

 

[chance vought]

It's important to have an exit strategy before entering into any investment so you can tune out the noise and execute.

For me, Bitcoin isn’t an investment; it is the exit strategy!