JayR
Heritage
^^ The TL;DR part ^^
@eradicator No I won’t be taking profits. I won’t be selling the superior asset to buy an inferior one. I have a a low risk tolerance, and am not a gambler.
Just because there have been 4 year cycles, doesn’t mean there will be this time. Once a G7 or a FAANG starts buying btc, that’s the whole game. Fiat liquidity will no longer have up/down effects on bitcoin, only up. I won’t be left holding the fiat bag.
Just because there have been 4 year cycles, doesn’t mean there will be this time. Once a G7 or a FAANG starts buying btc, that’s the whole game. Fiat liquidity will no longer have up/down effects on bitcoin, only up. I won’t be left holding the fiat bag.
It’s just starting to sink in how profound a Trump win could be for bitcoin. I’m under no illusions about Trump’s understanding of bitcoin…but if he has Lumis, Long, Ron Paul, Vivek, all whispering in his ear and there is a US strategic bitcoin reserve: we very well could have a 2 sigma “cycle” to $700k, if we even have cycles anymore. Chinese state media has already mentioned the possibility of such, which means they are probably in the process of starting a reserve of their own. Game theory from there.
That and the elimination of income tax and capital gains - I hope Trump survives his term.
That and the elimination of income tax and capital gains - I hope Trump survives his term.
I know you guys are feeling euphoric at the moment (enjoy your victory lap), but $700k? Please, for your own sanity, come back to reality. I can assure you, Bitcoin is very low on Trump's priority list. Everything he said about Bitcoin and crypto during the campaign was transparently just pandering for votes. Like every good politician, he does the exact same thing to every group he's talking to at any given time, and will have much bigger fish to fry once he takes office. That being said, I think this current run up will be short lived, and that we're much closer to a cyclical top than a fresh launching point. Once it becomes apparent that Trump's talk about Bitcoin was just his typical bluster and pandering - and that he is actually much more focused on strengthening the U.S. dollar, Bitcoin's bête noire, than on Bitcoin itself - the wind will quickly come out of the sails.
It's also worth considering the risk of Democrat vengeance prosecutions, with the idea that if they can't get Trump directly, they'll try to get anyone and everything associated with him. Thus we can expect that the more closely crypto is associated with Trump, the more it will become a target of Democrat lawfare. Bitcoin itself obviously has little to fear from this directly, but Tether, Binance, Bitfenex, et. al. are all extremely vulnerable, with Tether having already been targeted by the litigious and highly partisan NY AG. Can Tether withstand additional legal and regulatory scrutiny, given that they've already been fined for wrongdoing and have still yet to pass an audit? It's a shaky proposition. And given how important Tether is to both the price of Bitcoin and the entire crypto ecosystem, it's a major risk that needs to be taken seriously (especially if you claim to have a low risk tolerance!).
I join @eradicator in encouraging some sensible profit taking.
Are you on record already that the cycles will be dampened, or essentially erased? It's possible, but I'm not sure what will happen. I do think to some degree, the diminishing returns is baked into it (like the power law states) but we're talking much less downside in the future if the cycle is dampened with major players FOMOing and game theory already at play.
You still have no idea of what you don't know. It's a very interesting to see that kind of normie-ism on this forum. You're locked into a non-thinking and non curious attitude.
I’m on record giving a non-answer, hedging my bets on cycles: every bull run someone says “it’s the last cycle, super cycle inbound.” That said: A US strategic Bitcoin reserve (first posited by Maj Jason Lowery, in SoftWar) will, with 100% certainty, ignite nation state FOMO, is likely to break the 4 year cycle.Are you on record already that the cycles will be dampened, or essentially erased? It's possible, but I'm not sure what will happen. I do think to some degree, the diminishing returns is baked into it (like the power law states) but we're talking much less downside in the future if the cycle is dampened with major players FOMOing and game theory already at play.
You still have no idea of what you don't know. It's a very interesting to see that kind of normie-ism on this forum. You're locked into a non-thinking and non curious attitude.
This is truly uncharted territory, especially if Trump continues to live.
I'm not sure why it's so difficult for you to understand that people can think about the same topic and reach different conclusions.
You still have no idea of what you don't know. It's a very interesting to see that kind of normie-ism on this forum. You're locked into a non-thinking and non curious attitude.
Serious question: what tangible value is gained by holding a "strategic Bitcoin reserve"? Given that Bitcoin is not an actual commodity with intrinsic value like oil, minerals or agricultural products, what does a country gain relative to other countries by holding it? Imagine if a country stockpiled the largest Bitcoin reserve on earth. What does that actually do for them? Bitcoin's only value is from its network creating the perception of value. It is inherently an asset based on nothing but shared delusion. By definition, then, it cannot serve as a strategic asset, since if any single nation state acquired a large enough pool of Bitcoin, game theory dictates that other countries would simply stop utilizing it and turn to some alternative in order to deny their rival whatever power their Bitcoin reserve previously allowed them. In other words, because Bitcoin doesn't actually do anything or even exist in the real world, at some point it can be - and will be - simply ignored and disregarded. The very idea of a "strategic Bitcoin reserve" is like promoting an arms race to spend billions of dollars creating paper airplanes.
Because it’s not a shared delusion. You have a fundamental misunderstanding of what money is and how it arises. Most of us, including myself, once thought as you do. There are certain properties of good money that reward people who adopt it. Bitcoin has all of these properties in abundance well above any current money.
Pretend for a moment that bitcoin does have value. How does a strategic reserve help? It is a savings account for emergencies. It also can serve the same function as forex reserves (especially in foreign countries.). Countries can defend their fiat currencies from speculative attacks, and soft bond markets (the JPY would be at 200¥/$ is the BOJ had not sold hundreds of billions of US debt .). This only works if they restrain their money printing - there is no free lunch . But it can soften the blow of the inevitable fiat collapse.
TA says a high of 140k to 160k is realistic with a blow off top of maybe 170-190k. Maybe next bull run will be higher. But we will likely drop to 50k-60k when the bottom falls off. As we have more volume then ever expect this bull run to be shorter and hotter than last cycles, and yes most retail will get caught with their pants down and get boned
Vengeance does not seem feasible given trumps landslide victory and the fact that the republicans will likely have most if not all of the supreme court judges shortly being republican supporting judges. How exactly are the democrats going to get their revenge? Via state prosecutors who will get overturned by the republican supreme court judges? Trump will likely have the power to choose all of the key regulators (head of SEC, head of EPA, etc)
The problem with this thinking is you are seeing things in a vacuum. Even if other sovereigns decide to stop stockpiling Bitcoin other players such as pension funds, large corporations, individuals etc will still stack Bitcoin so the network effect will still be there and the Bitcoin price will still be high/rising so the nation states that do stack Bitcoin will be financially rewarded which will then kick game theory into gear and cause the other nation states to adopt Bitcoin.
There is already speculation that China will begin a strategic Bitcoin reserve to compete with the USA.
Wont you be withdrawing some of those profits to use in your daily life? A small % to renovate your house or to boost your business or to take your wife and kids somewhere nice for the weekend?
Or are you waiting to reach a particular goal?
Please try to remain coolheaded during debate.
What are you talking about? I understand that you're a greedy, gambling crypto jew who wants to teach young men to get in bed with dark arts pedophiles using untraceable bitcoin.
Yes, I know you are laughing at me. Thanks brother. It's just like a jew to choose money over Christianity.
Where do you think pedophiles, pornographers, scammers, and the cartels are hiding their money? Go ahead, stay in bed with your dark arts brothers on the platform known as bitcoin. Birds of a feather flock together. Maybe you remember a little incident about the Colonial Pipeline? Here in the southeast we didn't have gas for 3 days until 75 shitcoins were delivered to your brothers in arms.
At some point, but the next few years are not the time. That $5k vacation is actually $500k in 10 years. I will borrow against it, maybe, but won’t be selling for anything until it is the dominant money.
What a surprise: scammers, cartels, and other people you don’t like would rather have real money than cuck-shekels from the government!
There's literally no reason you would prefer Bitcoin over gold in this role. If I have 100 tons of gold sitting in a vault, that's something real and tangible that actually exists. It cannot be ignored. If I have $100 billion worth of Bitcoin, I have entries on a shared ledger, and my Bitcoin only has power insofar as others recognize the importance of those ledger entries.
You can't name a single function Bitcoin performs that couldn't be done equally well or better by some other cryptocurrency. Go on, try to name one. Technologically, Bitcoin is not unique as far as crypto goes, and is actually fairly primitive. The only reason it has any value whatsoever is completely due to its first mover advantage - its network effect. This is indisputable.
It wouldn't take much work from blue state AGs and/or the FBI to have a huge negative impact on crypto exchanges. Trump has not been elected king - even with a sweeping mandate he will still have a LOT of opposition within the existing government bureaucracy, both at the state and federal levels.
Major powers have no incentive to focus on Bitcoin and are much better off focusing on managing their own sovereign currencies. A minor country like El Salvador might actually stand to gain from speculating on Bitcoin, but that's basically just gambling on their part. And as I pointed out to chance vought, gold makes much more sense as a strategic reserve asset (which is why central banks buy it and not Bitcoin).
Misconceptions regarding cryptocurrencies as an alternative to fiat
Caveat emptor.
neofeudalreview.substack.com
I stumbled upon this the other day and encourage you guys to read it. It's a nice writeup on Tether that has links to several other even more detailed breakdowns. It's interesting that the author of this piece independently arrived at the same conclusion I've voiced in this thread previously - that Tether has been captured by the U.S. Deep State and is being used for laundering money, paying bribes to corrupt politicians and funding off-the-book black operations. Regardless whether or not that's true, it's clear that Tether is functioning as Bitcoin's own Federal Reserve, and has massively inflated the price over the past several years. If Tether implodes, the damage it will inflict on Bitcoin - and on the entire crypto ecosystem - will be incalculable. It's a ticking time bomb, and one that the Deep State can very likely detonate at will. Why would they do that? Well, it's much easier to sell and justify the introduction of a government-backed CBDC after Bitcoin and all other cryptos have essentially been destroyed in a controlled demolition.
