Bitcoin and Crypto Thread

[chance vought]

I think it has more to do with human nature than with any monetary system or currency. Do you really think that on a pure gold (or Bitcoin) standard, people wouldn't be attracted to get rich quick schemes? Greed, sloth and dishonesty are not going anywhere regardless of what we use as money.

When savings is possible, most people will choose to save, rather than gamble.

More lottery tickets are bought by lower income people, who are unable to save, than by upper middle class, who can save via money substitutes like real estate and equities.

Evaporating money causes people to take irrational risks, spend it on things they don’t need, and/or give up on real investments. Case studies being any third world country with a worse currency than the dollar. Even the Chinese are buying incomplete apartments, some of which are never completed, most of which can never be lived in.

 

[scorpion]

When savings is possible, most people will choose to save, rather than gamble.

More lottery tickets are bought by lower income people, who are unable to save, than by upper middle class, who can save via money substitutes like real estate and equities.

I don't want to derail by belaboring this argument much further, but again, I think this mostly comes down to psychological and behavioral patterns. I mean, the poor are using the same dollars that the wealthy are, and these days you can open a brokerage account with less than $100. There's no financial barrier to entry to saving/investing, in fiat or any other currency. The only thing stopping people is their own lack of discipline and willpower. And the sad fact is that the poor are usually their own worst enemy in this regard, and that is why most of them stay poor all their lives. (This is also why working class and lower-middle class people traditionally rely so much on home ownership for "building wealth", simply because paying a mortgage is essentially a form of forced savings that they otherwise could never discipline themselves to maintain long term).

 

[Blade Runner]

Travel anywhere with high inflation fiat: there are more scams being run than legitimate businesses.

Exactly. These places also tend to be circular, in that lower IQ places will have higher corruption as well, leading to a feedback loop on the population level.

I regard Bitcoin as the grandfather of all shitcoins.

This doesn't even make sense. It's the first mover that was always the original money protocol and by definition all that came after it was chasing the shit, proving the point once again.

"Invest" in getting outside, turning the tables on the money lenders, learning to live simply with minimal electricity and use of the internet, and developing healthy hobbies that can provide you with food, shelter, and water in a time of unforseen social crisis.

Yes, if you also understand something about risk. One of things that people don't know about "gambling" is how someone with a solid and critical mind will learn risk assessment, because he will be forced to (if he's not a low level shot taker/entertainment person). What you miss out on here is what I bring up fairly often, that of not overweighting probabilities of doom scenarios, such that your life isn't enhanced in the big picture. You can have saver scenarios where you are prepared for many eventualities, but weigh the better life surroundings higher, which will provide greater returns for you in life and enjoyment in the future. Few really think about this stuff, which is why I'm here to tell people (with the risk of you disliking it when I post things of that nature - but they are true).

And the sad fact is that the poor are usually their own worst enemy in this regard, and that is why most of them stay poor all their lives.

Yes, in general. What's different now is that these people are locked out. We aren't in Kansas anymore, Dorothy. Whether the poor know it or not, they're knocked out. Or it could be a TKO. Either way, the ability to move up in America is more or less done unless "lottery." Interestingly enough, your inability to see BTC for what it is (the golden ticket) proves this, and even funnier you're holding the "poor" back from the only shot they've got (in your arguments or suggestions). It's curious how things turn out in life, very paradoxical at times.

 

[scorpion]

Either way, the ability to move up in America is more or less done unless "lottery." Interestingly enough, your inability to see BTC for what it is (the golden ticket) proves this, and even funnier you're holding the "poor" back from the only shot they've got (in your arguments or suggestions).

I disagree that the only way for the poor to move up is via some sort of longshot/lottery. I also disagree with the idea that Bitcoin is a "golden ticket" to wealth. In fact, I don't believe that there is such a thing as a golden ticket at all. Pointing at people who took extreme risks and/or got very lucky with bets does not imply that they found a golden ticket. It's just engaging in survivorship bias, highlighting the few who came out ahead and ignoring the vast majority who ended up worse off. For example, if you took 100 guys and gave them each $10k, had them bet it all on red or black in roulette and had them keep their winnings on the table and double their bet with each win (HODL!), after six spins of the wheel, statistically one of them will win six times in a row and walk away with $640k. But the other 99 will walk away with nothing.

For every guy who ends up extremely wealthy after taking substantial risks in business or investing, there are at least twenty guys who came out on the wrong side of those same bets, waiting tables in their fifties to make ends meet.

 

[Blade Runner]

I disagree that the only way for the poor to move up is via some sort of longshot/lottery.

This statement depends on the point of view of the person and what they consider to be "moving up" of course.

It's just engaging in survivorship bias, highlighting the few who came out ahead and ignoring the vast majority who ended up worse off.

This is a good point in general, but the reason why it doesn't apply is because what I'm promoting, and have been, isn't based on the survivorship, or gambling. If people don't get scared and make too many moves/trades/etc and just HODL, it's not survivorship bias - it is a proven strategy for gains. This is still the case for you even. If you don't get psyched out, realize what this is, don't leverage or trade in and out, but just rather HODL. You win.

Yes, it is that simple. But clearly it's not simple for people to really understand what it is and have the conviction for them to just stick with it, but it remains the reality.

 

[scorpion]

If people don't get scared and make too many moves/trades/etc and just HODL, it's not survivorship bias - it is a proven strategy for gains.

This has historically been the case with a broad-based/indexed equity portfolio, and in most markets with real estate. It has also been the case in Bitcoin thus far, especially for those who bought and HODLed pre-2017 runup. But most of the buyers since 2021 haven't made exceptionally great returns (even if you timed the bottom perfectly in 2023 you're not even up 4x at this point). There is very little reason to believe that Bitcoin will do another 5, 10 or 20x from here. The risk vastly exceeds the potential reward, in my view. You obviously disagree. Time will tell.

 

[JayR]

But most of the buyers since 2021 haven't made exceptionally great returns (even if you timed the bottom perfectly in 2023 you're not even up 4x at this point).

"Not even up 4x" (i.e., 400%)?? Your opinion of "exceptionally great returns" differs from mine.

I started DCA'ing in April 2021 (thanks Redbeard) -- I'm currently up 90% making BTC the best-performing asset in my portfolio over the last 3 years. I consider those "exceptional returns." Plus, I enjoy all the other benefits (freedom money, store of value, inflation hedge, sticking it to the man, etc.).

There is very little reason to believe that Bitcoin will do another 5, 10 or 20x from here.

Money printer goes BRR. Capped supply vs. exploding demand. There are so many reasons which have all been discussed here ad nauseam.

 

[PurpleUrkel]

You can have saver scenarios where you are prepared for many eventualities...

Just prepare for one eventuality, death. One can do this by living a good life so that when one starts heading towards The End you have no regrets. The question then becomes, "What is a good life?" If you study the recent histories of end of life scenarios almost every modern "successful" human on their death bed wishes they would have worked less, focused less on money, and spent more quality time with friends and family, eating better and exercising more, and developing their hidden talents and hobbies (playing a musical instrument, traveling, gardening, cooking, fixing up old cars, building things, learning to fly or sail, etc.). Not one person on their death bed tonight is saying, "I wish I would have bought a bitcoin in 2014 and held it until tonight."

Few really think about this stuff, which is why I'm here to tell people (with the risk of you disliking it when I post things of that nature - but they are true).

I don't dislike your love of BTC and your success with it. I applaud you in the fact that you understand something fairly complex and are having a go at it because you can afford to. I'm just trying to provide a counter-balance to any youngsters lurking around here that think money is the key to happiness and a good life. It is not. I know you and most everyone here knows this, I'm just stating it again to reinforce the fact that nothing can replace a 5,000 hour high-level manual labor skill set. We only have so much time. Do you want to learn BTC or how to build your own custom, no mortgage, off-grid home for under 100K that would cost you 500K through a bank and contractor? Money that you don't spend is money that you don't have to earn via risky BTC "investments."

 

[Australia Sucks]

Just prepare for one eventuality, death. One can do this by living a good life so that when one starts heading towards The End you have no regrets. The question then becomes, "What is a good life?" If you study the recent histories of end of life scenarios almost every modern "successful" human on their death bed wishes they would have worked less, focused less on money, and spent more quality time with friends and family, eating better and exercising more, and developing their hidden talents and hobbies (playing a musical instrument, traveling, gardening, cooking, fixing up old cars, building things, learning to fly or sail, etc.). Not one person on their death bed tonight is saying, "I wish I would have bought a bitcoin in 2014 and held it until tonight."

I don't dislike your love of BTC and your success with it. I applaud you in the fact that you understand something fairly complex and are having a go at it because you can afford to. I'm just trying to provide a counter-balance to any youngsters lurking around here that think money is the key to happiness and a good life. It is not. I know you and most everyone here knows this, I'm just stating it again to reinforce the fact that nothing can replace a 5,000 hour high-level manual labor skill set. We only have so much time. Do you want to learn BTC or how to build your own custom, no mortgage, off-grid home for under 100K that would cost you 500K through a bank and contractor? Money that you don't spend is money that you don't have to earn via risky BTC "investments."

Blade runner is trying to make the point it’s nogg to either or, it’s both. You can build your own house and own bitcoin.

 

[PurpleUrkel]

Blade runner is trying to make the point it’s nogg to either or, it’s both. You can build your own house and own bitcoin.

Yes, but he is the exception, not the rule...

For every guy who ends up extremely wealthy after taking substantial risks in business or investing, there are at least twenty guys who came out on the wrong side of those same bets...

It's like women saying they can "have it all" (career, kids, devoted husband, great marriage, close friends, money, and a clean house all while being a great cook). It's just not true. We can't be all things to all people and we can't be great at all things. We must choose. For example, I live on the financial edge but I am a chef, a good musician, an oceanic waterman, a wilderness survivalist, a master food grower, and soon to be pilot and custom home builder. I'm not saying this to brag but to demonstrate that all the money in the world can't buy these skill sets. They require time, and time is money... or is it?

 

[scorpion]

"Not even up 4x" (i.e., 400%)?? Your opinion of "exceptionally great returns" differs from mine.

I started DCA'ing in April 2021 (thanks Redbeard) -- I'm currently up 90% making BTC the best-performing asset in my portfolio over the last 3 years. I consider those "exceptional returns." Plus, I enjoy all the other benefits (freedom money, store of value, inflation hedge, sticking it to the man, etc.).

Given that the S&P 500 index is up 46% since 2021, this is not remotely impressive. You doubled the return of the boring old stock index by owning one of the most volatile assets in the world. Not a great trade off, in my opinion, but maybe it will continue working out for you.

Money printer goes BRR. Capped supply vs. exploding demand. There are so many reasons which have all been discussed here ad nauseam.

Exploding demand? You can't be serious. There is no untapped market for Bitcoin at this point. Also hilarious that you guys keep referring to the USD money printer while ignoring the elephant in the room that is Tether, which regularly "prints" billions of dollars worth of fraudulent stablecoins to pump Bitcoin.

 

[chance vought]

Yes, but he is the exception, not the rule...

It's like women saying they can "have it all" (career, kids, devoted husband, great marriage, close friends, money, and a clean house all while being a great cook). It's just not true. We can't be all things to all people and we can't be great at all things. We must choose. For example, I live on the financial edge but I am a chef, a good musician, an oceanic waterman, a wilderness survivalist, a master food grower, and soon to be pilot and custom home builder. I'm not saying this to brag but to demonstrate that all the money in the world can't buy these skill sets. They require time, and time is money... or is it?

@PurpleUrkel I agree, people should focus more on relationships than money. Bitcoin is what allows one to do that. People with Bitcoin can have the option of working less, or quitting a job and doing something they have actual passion for.

I don't think @Blade Runner is the exception. Once you Bitcoin, it gives you mental bandwidth to pay attention to the people you love (no more "investing"), and it gives you time as well. It also gives you options - so many options. I used to spend too much time doomscrolling and worrying

because you can afford to. I'm just trying to provide a counter-balance to any youngsters lurking around here that think money is the key to happiness and a good life. It is not. I know you and most everyone here knows this, I'm just stating it again to reinforce the fact that nothing can replace a 5,000 hour high-level manual labor skill set. We only have so much time. Do you want to learn BTC or how to build your own custom, no mortgage, off-grid home for under 100K that would cost you 500K through a bank and contractor? Money that you don't spend is money that you don't have to earn via risky BTC "investments."

I started because I looked at things and realized I couldn't afford not to. Most people I know (that are better off than myself) haven't given BTC a second thought, because they don't need it yet. I came to the conclusion that I needed it. BTC isn't investing, it is saving. Whatever the fiat dollar amount each coin is "worth", I am reasonably certain the amount of labor I have expended will be redeemable in BTC when I need it in the future. That wasn't true for cash, stocks, or real estate.

Neither one is the wrong answer, but specialization is what gives us all abundance, in things, but also time. I would rather do the one thing I am really, really good at, and trade that skill for the guy who is really, really good at building houses, and has built 15 of them already. In terms of my time, it will cost less than developing the skills to build a house, and fumbling through the first one.

Fiat time-theft has made that truth less clear, because we are getting stolen from through inflation, regulation, taxes, etc. BTC returns the abundance promised by civilization.

TLDR: My paradigm is savings, not investing. I have little interest in investing, because government can change laws, re-zone, do a lot of things to destroy any investment. Investment is way beyond my risk tolerance, until we live in a world with small government.

 

[chance vought]

Bitcoin has a use case, and has a good chance of succeeding. I don’t know if that’s 1 in 2 or 1 in 1000, but it given the potential, it is worth some exposure in my opinion. Comparing it to gambling or the lottery are completely invalid.

I have yet to see any reason why it won’t succeed. I remember in 1995 the hype of the internet vs the reality, when it took 2 minutes to load a page if it had a jpg or 2. Now it’s so integrated into society that the world is a vastly different place (for better and worse.). Most of us couldn’t imagine the changes in those 3 decades.

Checking the weather, navigating a foreign city, a star-trek esque universal translator, and the answer to almost any technical question you might have, now lives in your pocket on a device the size of a deck of cards. It wasn’t even thought of in the early days of the internet when we were dialing the phone company ISP at 14.4kbps.

“Bitcoin can’t scale, it’s too slow, transactions are too expensive”….all things you could say about the early days of the internet. The internet never broke, it just got better, more useful, and more adoption.

 

[scorpion]

Bitcoin has a use case, and has a good chance of succeeding. I don’t know if that’s 1 in 2 or 1 in 1000, but it given the potential, it is worth some exposure in my opinion.

I actually agree with this. I think Bitcoin does have a use case, it just isn't nearly as all-encompassing as the one you predict. I think having some form of borderless "internet money token" is an interesting and somewhat useful idea. I just don't think it should ever play more than an ancillary, peripheral role in the broader financial system. The idea of Bitcoin becoming the world reserve currency or otherwise serving as the basis of global trade and savings strikes me as the height of absurdity. But people trading Bitcoin among themselves as digital tokens for their own purposes? Sure, I can see it. But that sort of usage would remain highly niche, and the price for such a token should be nowhere near what it is now. In other words, I think that Monero is pretty much what Bitcoin was trying to be (usable internet money), before it was co-opted with the BCH split into being something it's not ("digital scarcity" that is considered valuable just because it was the first big crypto network).

I have yet to see any reason why it won’t succeed. I remember in 1995 the hype of the internet vs the reality, when it took 2 minutes to load a page if it had a jpg or 2. Now it’s so integrated into society that the world is a vastly different place (for better and worse.). Most of us couldn’t imagine the changes in those 3 decades.

You guys like to compare Bitcoin to the internet, but it's simply a terrible and inaccurate analogy. It's especially glaring now, given that we are currently witnessing the early stages of an emergent technology that is actually very similar to the internet with AI (like the internet, AI in its early stages is already providing real and measurable economic impact, and it's obvious to everyone that if trends continue, the potential is utterly massive. Anyone who was old enough to be paying attention in the early and mid-1990s () can remember the social mood was very similar with the internet). Fifteen years after its creation, Bitcoin remains very niche, and is practically used only for financial speculation. This is despite the fact that Bitcoin has had enormous public exposure since 2017, to the extent that we have crypto Super Bowl commercials and sports stadiums. In other words, Bitcoin is not some nascent, unknown technology waiting to spring upon a unsuspecting public that will suddenly and excitedly adopt in en masse when they see its wondrous benefits for themselves. No - most people already know about Bitcoin by now, and they simply have no interest in owning it.

 

[JayR]

Given that the S&P 500 index is up 46% since 2021, this is not remotely impressive. You doubled the return of the boring old stock index by owning one of the most volatile assets in the world. Not a great trade off, in my opinion, but maybe it will continue working out for you.

Last time I'll mention my personal investments -- it's making me feel icky -- but it's odd to me that my point about making 90% returns in 3 years can somehow be criticized. It is what it is -- "exceptional returns!" BTC is about 5% of my portfolio. The other 95% is the S&P Index (and has been for the last 20 years). I'd put more into BTC if I could, but that 95% is in my 401K through Vanguard, and they don't let me do Bitcoin.

Exploding demand? You can't be serious. There is no untapped market for Bitcoin at this point.

I thought Australia and Hong Kong just introduced ETFs, right on the heels of the most successful ETF rollout ever in the USA. And I don't know the current stat, but isn't it something under 10% of the retail little guy knowing about/owning Bitcoin? 90% of the population hasn't even dipped their foot in the pool! At least two pension funds in the USA have begun acquiring BTC. These examples are just off the top of my head from reading the news-- I'm sure there are more examples. Don't these demonstrate increasing demand?

Also hilarious that you guys keep referring to the USD money printer while ignoring the elephant in the room that is Tether, which regularly "prints" billions of dollars worth of fraudulent stablecoins to pump Bitcoin.

I'll be honest, I don't really understand this. I've heard of Tether, but I don't know how it is related to Bitcoin. Happy to be edified.

 

[eradicator]

Last time I'll mention my personal investments -- it's making me feel icky -- but it's odd to me that my point about making 90% returns in 3 years can somehow be criticized. It is what it is -- "exceptional returns!" BTC is about 5% of my portfolio. The other 95% is the S&P Index (and has been for the last 20 years). I'd put more into BTC if I could, but that 95% is in my 401K through Vanguard, and they don't let me do Bitcoin.


I thought Australia and Hong Kong just introduced ETFs, right on the heels of the most successful ETF rollout ever in the USA. And I don't know the current stat, but isn't it something under 10% of the retail little guy knowing about/owning Bitcoin? 90% of the population hasn't even dipped their foot in the pool! At least two pension funds in the USA have begun acquiring BTC. These examples are just off the top of my head from reading the news-- I'm sure there are more examples. Don't these demonstrate increasing demand?



I'll be honest, I don't really understand this. I've heard of Tether, but I don't know how it is related to Bitcoin. Happy to be edified.

Perhaps you could be referring to usdc which does give a return. Like if I turn 10m dollars worth of bitcoin into usdc during the bull run and wait 2 years for Bitcoin to dip and buy more, and I just let the usdc sit in a wallet, I’d collect $400000 per year in cash , or more depending on which wallet I store it

Usdc and usdt are different stable coins

 

[PurpleUrkel]

I'm going to bow out of this thread soon because I don't own any bitcoin and I never will. I don't understand it and I don't want to understand it. I have limited time on this earth and unfortunately for me (financially), I didn't take the collective advice of 2016 RVF 1.0 and buy BTC at $600 a coin. In the interim, I am buying a Cessna with cash earned on the weekends recycling scrap metal and learning to fly it. Who's got time for Bitcoin?

... it's odd to me that my point about making 90% returns in 3 years can somehow be criticized...

This is incredible, and good for you. However, don't look a gift horse in the mouth. Get out now. Don't be greedy. You found an "angle," got lucky, and succeeded, now take your "earnings" and forget about this nonsense. Become a diesel mechanic.

I think Bitcoin does have a use case, it just isn't nearly as all-encompassing as the one you predict. I think having some form of borderless "internet money token" is an interesting and somewhat useful idea. I just don't think it should ever play more than an ancillary, peripheral role in the broader financial system.

Don't worry, it doesn't. When 80 year-old grandmas are feeding $100 bills into BTC machines at 7-Eleven's at 10'o'clock at night you know the gig is up.

Bitcoin remains very niche, and is practically used only for financial speculation. This is despite the fact that Bitcoin has had enormous public exposure since 2017, to the extent that we have crypto Super Bowl commercials and sports stadiums.

Scorpion keeps spitting hard truths yet the BTC copium ensues.

 

[JayR]

I'm going to bow out of this thread soon because I don't own any bitcoin and I never will. I don't understand it and I don't want to understand it. I have limited time on this earth and unfortunately for me (financially), I didn't take the collective advice of 2016 RVF 1.0 and buy BTC at $600 a coin. In the interim, I am buying a Cessna with cash earned on the weekends recycling scrap metal and learning to fly it. Who's got time for Bitcoin?

I don't understand why you can't do both. Thanks for your anti-BTC counterpoints -- you made this thread interesting and educational.

This is incredible, and good for you. However, don't look a gift horse in the mouth. Get out now. Don't be greedy. You found an "angle," got lucky, and succeeded, now take your "earnings" and forget about this nonsense. Become a diesel mechanic.

Diesel mechanic? I'm almost 60! Investing in BTC is much easier on my aging-but-still-jacked body.

Don't worry, it doesn't. When 80 year-old grandmas are feeding $100 bills into BTC machines at 7-Eleven's at 10'o'clock at night you know the gig is up.

I thought it was Circle K? "I'll take things that never happened for 0.01 BTC, Alex."

Scorpion keeps spitting hard truths yet the BTC copium ensues.

BTC is the best-performing asset in history, but the anti-BTC copium continues....