Bitcoin and Crypto Thread

[magoo]

No, you don't. Joe Schmoe doesn't decide on money, as you suggested after you said this. Wake up and listen to what we are saying. Joe Schmoe reacts to what the smart money decides, which will be bitcoin, due to fiat's end, which always happens. You want certainty? That's one for you, if you think I'm "too smart".

Joe Schmoe must be convinced. And for this to happen you will have to trick them. Just like the government does now. Fiat is fiat for you and users of this forum. But for the commoners. it represents gold . Make a random questionary to 100 people on the street if they think money represents gold. Ask them.

What happens when fiat money ends? Barter and after a return to valuable currencies or currencies which represent something valuable (gold).

Because currencies need to be or represent something valuable. If you are making a correspondence between bitcoin limit to 21M to gold. That´s not the reason people chose gold. People chose gold currencies not only because they are finite. They chose them because they are foremost valuable and scarce. And this psycological effect you´re not taking into account. I think Germany Weimar got their currency right when they started to back it with mortgages. There´s many metals or things which are finite but are not used to back currencies. Gold=wealth. Being finite is one aspect of gold.

Even though gold price is totally manipulated. So whoever thinks there wouldn´t be manipulation.

Either money is a valuable commodity. Or money represents a valuable commodity. Or the government lies to the population and pretends money is backed by a valuable commodity. People will only notice government lied to them. When brutal inflation arrives.

Bitcoin is not a valuable commodity. Andit doesn´t represent a valuable commodity. So the government. Or the people who want bitcoin to be the accepted medium of exchange will have to change the belief system of people. Either tricking them. Or trying to change their instinct of holding to something of value. Communism has this type of ideas. You can force and change people. No system which goes against human nature resists the test of time.

I´m not saying it cant be done. But for it to happen. People will have to be lied to. Or manipulated.

None of this makes any sense.

If people adopt bitcoin. It goes against human psycology which translates in wanting to have a valuable instrument of intermediation of goods or services.

Some people in economic crisis. Sell houses. Not because they need money. But because they think houses are worthless. I saw it within my family. There´s also a flock of sheep syndrome.

Wrong.

Lool. Dude bitcoin is totally associated to money laundering and tax evasion. Maybe in the future it will change.

"The Silk Road website was an anonymous internet marketplace active from January 2011 to October 2013. Accessible through encrypted dark web browsers such as Tor, Silk Road was known as a hotbed of illegal activity facilitated by cryptocurrency, and served as one of the initial use cases for Bitcoin."

Not a point.

I know a bit of investments. And how the investment world works. And have a proven track record of some success. Im not an expert. But recently had a proposal to open and manage a real estate fund. I studied a lot funds and other stuff. Legal and business wise . But being responsible for millions of euros. Not for me. Also more important i wouldnt have time for my kids.

I receive my rents and when I see a business I like will invest. the fund management said they had already had asked the photgrapher to come for photoshoot. They were dissapointed. Ahahaha Fuck them.
In investment companies you learn in 6 months. After its always repeat.

Which one is it?

By the way, do you know who Jason Lowery is? He wrote a book on bitcoin that you can't buy now, at least publicly. I wonder why. Hmm.

This book:

Amazon product ASIN B0BW358F37

Will try to find a free copy. Found one:

https://dspace.mit.edu/bitstream/ha...ry-jplowery-sm-sdm-2023-thesis.pdf?sequence=1

Why cant people have a decentralized coin with valuable backing?

Will take a look. Military is always more advanced than civilians regarding technology.

I dont think investing in bitcoin is a bad idea. Its a very risky one. For sure not a slam dunk like you pretend it to be. Some schmuck will invest money he cant afford to lose listening to you. And lose it.

 

[Blade Runner]

Now imagine if you personally held all 21 million Bitcoin for yourself. Would the entire world be economically beholden to you due to your incontrovertible and overwhelming mastery of the blockchain? Would your vast Bitcoin wealth become the basis for global finance and function as the world reserve currency? Would all of humanity recognize Bitcoin as the most valuable asset in the world, willingly bend the knee and resign themselves to techno-feudal serfdom under your heel?

You still don't understand the idea of "network" which is the quick answer to why this analogy or thought experiment is invalid (I otherwise have no problem with reasoning by extreme, since it can be helpful, you just didn't do it the right way here). No need to waste further time addressing it as a result.

Joe Schmoe must be convinced. And for this to happen you will have to trick them. Just like the government does now. Fiat is fiat for you and users of this forum. But for the commoners. it represents gold . Make a random questionary to 100 people on the street if they think money represents gold. Ask them.

We've already been through this. Joe Schmoe by definition reacts, doesn't decide. You're incorrect. He will have no choice when everyone else is using what he needs to since they (the smart people or those losing more money, whatever you want to call them) have already decided.

What people on the street think means nothing, in general, to value beyond commercial or sales goods. When it comes to investments and high level assets - think of it - Joe Schmoe is irrelevant. Almost by definition. It's like you are abandoning all the things we already know and prove on the forum = followers follow, leaders set the trends.

 

[chance vought]

Why cant people have a decentralized coin with valuable backing?

Because backing it requires centralization. The US Dollar, GBP, Franc, Deutschmark, all were once backed by gold. Trust is required. At first, the gold centralized into banks, and further centralized into central banks. Backing a currency will work for awhile, until it doesn't, then what? Debt slavery, economic collapse, and social collapse. We've been down this road, over and over again, collapsing empire to collapsing empire. Dozens of generations of suffering.

Ask yourself why gold is valuable. A rational answer, please. Claiming that it is genetically ingrained in the human psyche is highly implausible. What was the actual reason gold became money.

- Wide geographic distibution
- scarcity (scarce enough to transport large amounts of value in a small size, but not so scarce that it is impractical.)
- transportability
- durability
- assayability

None of these are magical properties or unique - they are just a unique combination of properties that gold has in a most useful balance, compared to other goods. These specific properties give gold its high value, along with the size of the network that accepted gold in trade, not some nebulous claims of undefinable value such as: "because people have always liked gold, and that's the way it is."

Bitcoin has all of these properties, and each of them orders of magnitude better. That is why it is valuable. Not to you, but it has a price, which means it has value to some people. As the size of the network of Bitcoin users grows, so does the value of Bitcoin. A telephone is much more useful on a network of 1 billion than on a network of 10.

What backs gold? Why doesn't gold need any backing? It's as ridiculous as asking what Bitcoin is backed by, once you understand it. Bitcoin is limited by physical constraints, just like gold. This is one of the most difficult mental hurdles for most people.

 

[Blade Runner]

Bitcoin has all of these properties, and each of them orders of magnitude better. That is why it is valuable. Not to you, but it has a price, which means it has value to some people.

What backs gold? Why doesn't gold need any backing? It's as ridiculous as asking what Bitcoin is backed by, once you understand it. Bitcoin is limited by physical constraints, just like gold. This is one of the most difficult mental hurdles for most people.

Yes, and as it is nascent, it will continue to grow and be more valuable due to network effects. It's very straightforward and easy to understand, if you just open your mind and follow the obvious (forget your previous life in the matrix for a second).

I don't see why it is a difficult mental hurdle. Everyone in the world, as a rule, will always tend towards something that is more rare or scarce as being something that is prized more. Now don't be lazy and say that that is the sufficient part. It's just the necessary part.

 

[chance vought]

I don't see why it is a difficult mental hurdle. Everyone in the world, as a rule, will always tend towards something that is more rare or scarce as being something that is prized more. Now don't be lazy and say that that is the sufficient part. It's just the necessary part.

I think the difficulty, the mental hump to get over, is the fact that everything digital, or even pre-digital, like ideas, are infinitely copy able with near zero cost. Add in confusion (noise) with NFTs and alt-coins, and people cannot cross the mental chasm to start to comprehend digital scarcity. We see the arguments all the time on here “Bitcoin isn’t scarce, look at NFTs…see!” Not realizing that the only thing Bitcoin and NFTs/crypto have in common is that they are digital. There the similarities begin and end. Crypto/NFT is digital fiat. Bitcoin isn’t just the technology, or branding: it’s a network and a protocol.

Bitcoin “branding” is also an incorrect framing. Bitcoin doesn’t have a marketing department. Every other crypto has paid shills everywhere, but Bitcoin markets itself. It’s no more of a brand than gold is a brand. It exists and requires no advertising. There is no VC money and no pre-mined “developer trust fund”.

 

[Blade Runner]

Bitcoin “branding” is also an incorrect framing. Bitcoin doesn’t have a marketing department. Every other crypto has paid shills everywhere, but Bitcoin markets itself. It’s no more of a brand than gold is a brand. It exists and requires no advertising. There is no VC money and no pre-mined “developer trust fund”.

Correct, I've stated as much in previous posts. I don't think many are as aware as it's clear to me they haven't done the homework beyond the idea that they are old and/or unimaginative.

In that vein, I spoke with the Bitcoin CEO last night and he said that he always pumps the stock every 4 years, for some reason. He said "It's fun. I like being like Arnold in Pumping Iron. After the halving I just keep coming and coming and coming ..."

 

[magoo]

Because backing it requires centralization. The US Dollar, GBP, Franc, Deutschmark, all were once backed by gold. Trust is required. At first, the gold centralized into banks, and further centralized into central banks. Backing a currency will work for awhile, until it doesn't, then what? Debt slavery, economic collapse, and social collapse. We've been down this road, over and over again, collapsing empire to collapsing empire. Dozens of generations of suffering.

Ask yourself why gold is valuable. A rational answer, please. Claiming that it is genetically ingrained in the human psyche is highly implausible. What was the actual reason gold became money.

- Wide geographic distibution
- scarcity (scarce enough to transport large amounts of value in a small size, but not so scarce that it is impractical.)
- transportability
- durability
- assayability

None of these are magical properties or unique - they are just a unique combination of properties that gold has in a most useful balance, compared to other goods. These specific properties give gold its high value, along with the size of the network that accepted gold in trade, not some nebulous claims of undefinable value such as: "because people have always liked gold, and that's the way it is."

Bitcoin has all of these properties, and each of them orders of magnitude better. That is why it is valuable. Not to you, but it has a price, which means it has value to some people. As the size of the network of Bitcoin users grows, so does the value of Bitcoin. A telephone is much more useful on a network of 1 billion than on a network of 10.

What backs gold? Why doesn't gold need any backing? It's as ridiculous as asking what Bitcoin is backed by, once you understand it. Bitcoin is limited by physical constraints, just like gold. This is one of the most difficult mental hurdles for most people.

Fort Knox disagrees with you.

 

[Cynllo]

When these long-term trend lines cross there is always a price event - purple boxes.

There are two close to each other in September.

There's also the possibility of a lot of sell pressure coming from Mt. Gox and Germany selling.

If that selling does not occur, is staggered or is mild, then we should have the next leg up in September.

This model suggests an end to the bull market in around Nov 2025, in the region of $8.5-9.25T on TOTAL.

I have been suggesting Nov-Dec 2025 all cycle, which has been greeted with great hostility in many cases. But I think it's now clear that the ETF spectre and subsequent liquidity injection just caused a premature beginning to the breakout phase of the bull market. That's passed and we are now in standard mid-cycle sideways, charged with a high dose of fear by some that the top has come and gone. People thought the breakout happened early and were giving the rest of the cycle a short length, even ending in mid-2024, which I did and do think is based on a poor handle of how these cycles have played out. There's nothing like this price action in the midst of past breakouts to ATH. We are in a new territory (IMO) of breakout, bleeding into mid-cycle sideways, before resuming the breakout phase. It doesn't feel mature, and there are no reliable signals we are near to the top. I'm expecting consolidation between those orange and green lines. If it can't hold the orange it's not looking great and that may happen if we have the mentioned sell pressure.

 

[eradicator]

Still an excellent accumulation zone for alt coins. I’m dca buying alph, aitech, Tao, tet, ml,.

I’m really hoping to turn 100k into several million from here, a 20x to 30x

I’m certainly not going to bank on it and will dca out as the market pumps .

But honestly you will likely look back in a few months at current prices and realize that buying alph at $1.25 was a gift, same for Tao at $250,

Its only my second bull run but this all seems so freaking predictable

 

[scorpion]

Its only my second bull run but this all seems so freaking predictable

Has it never occurred to you that literally everyone else buying these worthless shitcoins is thinking the exact same thing?

"This coin will inevitably go up! Then I'll sell toward the top and unload my bag on some greedy sucker!"

Nobody thinks they're going to be the greedy sucker left holding the bag, but in these types of markets, everyone who walks away with a profit took it directly out of someone else's pocket. There's no interest, rents or dividends with these things. They are Ponzi assets, which means there is nowhere else for the money that fuels price appreciation to come from except new buyers entering the market and buying bags. Shitcoin trading is literally just a bunch of guys trying to rip each other off. It's a weird combination of a MLM scheme and the game "chicken": first you buy, then you try to pump the market by spreading a bunch of bullshit about how such-and-such coin is about to moon, then as the price starts to rise you hold out for as long as your nerves allow before you sell, with the idea of unloading your position before the market crashes (on to some poor sap who will eat an 95% loss, But who cares, right? Caveat emptor, and all. He should have known better, or something). The problem is, if you keep playing this game long enough, eventually that loser is going to be YOU.

I’m really hoping to turn 100k into several million from here, a 20x to 30x

 

[JayR]

It's a weird combination of a MLM scheme and the game "chicken": first you buy, then you try to pump the market by spreading a bunch of bullshit about how such-and-such coin is about to moon, then as the price starts to rise you hold out for as long as your nerves allow before you sell, with the idea of unloading your position before the market crashes (on to some poor sap who will eat an 95% loss, But who cares, right?

Sam Rogers: And you're selling something that you know has no value.
John Tuld: We are selling to willing buyers at the current fair market price!

 

[chance vought]

Has it never occurred to you that literally everyone else buying these worthless shitcoins is thinking the exact same thing?

"This coin will inevitably go up! Then I'll sell toward the top and unload my bag on some greedy sucker!"

Nobody thinks they're going to be the greedy sucker left holding the bag, but in these types of markets, everyone who walks away with a profit took it directly out of someone else's pocket. There's no interest, rents or dividends with these things. They are Ponzi assets, which means there is nowhere else for the money that fuels price appreciation to come from except new buyers entering the market and buying bags. Shitcoin trading is literally just a bunch of guys trying to rip each other off. It's a weird combination of a MLM scheme and the game "chicken": first you buy, then you try to pump the market by spreading a bunch of bullshit about how such-and-such coin is about to moon, then as the price starts to rise you hold out for as long as your nerves allow before you sell, with the idea of unloading your position before the market crashes (on to some poor sap who will eat an 95% loss, But who cares, right? Caveat emptor, and all. He should have known better, or something). The problem is, if you keep playing this game long enough, eventually that loser is going to be YOU.

This is just a symptom of late stage fiat.

“As regards dealing in shares, all classes of the population have for months been speculating with a fine disregard for common-sense. Shares have been freely bought in totally unknown concerns, in some cases with the object of exchanging valueless paper money for what was considered a good security, but generally in the hope of profiting by a rise in the stocks. Shares in respectable concerns which had paid a 20 per cent dividend, say, were pushed higher and higher till the final holders could not expect a return of even 1 per cent,”

Excerpt From
When Money Dies
Adam Fergusson

 

[eradicator]

View attachment 9475

When these long-term trend lines cross there is always a price event - purple boxes.

There are two close to each other in September.

There's also the possibility of a lot of sell pressure coming from Mt. Gox and Germany selling.

If that selling does not occur, is staggered or is mild, then we should have the next leg up in September.

This model suggests an end to the bull market in around Nov 2025, in the region of $8.5-9.25T on TOTAL.

I have been suggesting Nov-Dec 2025 all cycle, which has been greeted with great hostility in many cases.

It’s as valid a guess as any. I’m hearing anywhere from late 2024 to late 2025.

Obviously the coins that got a late introduction will peak later. Like axie infinity from the last cycle.

We simply don’t know yet

 

[eradicator]

Has it never occurred to you that literally everyone else buying these worthless shitcoins is thinking the exact same thing?

"This coin will inevitably go up! Then I'll sell toward the top and unload my bag on some greedy sucker!"

Nobody thinks they're going to be the greedy sucker left holding the bag, but in these types of markets, everyone who walks away with a profit took it directly out of someone else's pocket. There's no interest, rents or dividends with these things. They are Ponzi assets, which means there is nowhere else for the money that fuels price appreciation to come from except new buyers entering the market and buying bags. Shitcoin trading is literally just a bunch of guys trying to rip each other off. It's a weird combination of a MLM scheme and the game "chicken": first you buy, then you try to pump the market by spreading a bunch of bullshit about how such-and-such coin is about to moon, then as the price starts to rise you hold out for as long as your nerves allow before you sell, with the idea of unloading your position before the market crashes (on to some poor sap who will eat an 95% loss, But who cares, right? Caveat emptor, and all. He should have known better, or something). The problem is, if you keep playing this game long enough, eventually that loser is going to be YOU.

Do you still consider Bitcoin to be worthless?

 

[chance vought]

Scamming, cheating, and general disregard for one’s own reputation is also rampant with soft money (Fiat money). The future becomes so heavily discounted, the only thing that matters is getting money now, rather than investing in things like reputation, and skills that can do productive work. Travel anywhere with high inflation fiat: there are more scams being run than legitimate businesses.

Skills, reputation, and hard work take time to pay off. Stealing from people has no such time investment but an immediate payoff. Hard money allows people to discount the future less, and do things that won’t even be fully realized for years, decades, or even lifetimes (eg. build great cathedrals). Soft money turns people into animals, like dogs fighting over a bone.

 

[Rational1]

Scamming, cheating, and general disregard for one’s own reputation is also rampant with soft money (Fiat money). The future becomes so heavily discounted, the only thing that matters is getting money now, rather than investing in things like reputation, and skills that can do productive work. Travel anywhere with high inflation fiat: there are more scams being run than legitimate businesses.

Skills, reputation, and hard work take time to pay off. Stealing from people has no such time investment but an immediate payoff. Hard money allows people to discount the future less, and do things that won’t even be fully realized for years, decades, or even lifetimes (eg. build great cathedrals). Soft money turns people into animals, like dogs fighting over a bone.

Not completely related, but this mentality also fuels the YOLO and nihilistic culture surrounding us. If our money is being inflated into being worthless, and the future is dim why not live for today? There is no point to have kids or plan for the future, or even care about long term projects, since they will be pointless. It’s totally fine to scam others. Thats how many people seem to be thinking, and acting. Without God in the equation it’s a recipe for societal collapse.

 

[scorpion]

Sam Rogers: And you're selling something that you know has no value.
John Tuld: We are selling to willing buyers at the current fair market price!

The comparison to the sub-prime mortgage shenanigans is partly apt, but actually makes shitcoins look even worse in comparison, since with sub-prime at least there was the pretense that the assets being sold had cash flows attached. With shitcoins there isn't even that. It's purely, "Buy low, unload on a sucker before the market tanks." That's literally the entire game.

This is just a symptom of late stage fiat.

I think it has more to do with human nature than with any monetary system or currency. Do you really think that on a pure gold (or Bitcoin) standard, people wouldn't be attracted to get rich quick schemes? Greed, sloth and dishonesty are not going anywhere regardless of what we use as money.

Do you still consider Bitcoin to be worthless?

I regard Bitcoin as the grandfather of all shitcoins. It has had (and will continue to have) a longer run than all the others due to its first mover advantage and network effect, but ultimately it will end up in the same place.

Not completely related, but this mentality also fuels the YOLO and nihilistic culture surrounding us. If our money is being inflated into being worthless, and the future is dim why not live for today?

I'm highly critical of crypto, but I am sympathetic to young guys who get sucked into it for this reason. I think that many of them feel like it's their only shot at getting ahead financially. Unfortunately, for the vast majority of them, it only ends up making their financial situation even worse. Even in a bad economy, your best play is not gambling on longshot bets like shitcoins, it's investing in your professional skillset and network and acquiring real assets (stocks, real estate, precious metals). But in the age of social media no one wants to hear boring, old school advice like that. It's all about a quick payday (the 20-30x eradicator mentioned) that you flex about on Instagram and TikTok.

 

[PurpleUrkel]

Even in a bad economy, your best play is not gambling...

Gambling, not building anything tangible (housing, solar power systems, etc.), not developing real world skill sets (carpentry, auto mechanics, farming) and instead investing large amounts of your energy into a computer screen video game time-suck blackhole in hopes of "getting rich" on another hard to understand JQ financial scam.

"Invest" in getting outside, turning the tables on the money lenders, learning to live simply with minimal electricity and use of the internet, and developing healthy hobbies that can provide you with food, shelter, and water in a time of unforseen social crisis.

 

[Judoka]

But honestly you will likely look back in a few months at current prices and realize that buying alph at $1.25 was a gift, same for Tao at $250,

I would personally say that Alph is overpriced by $1.25 and Tao is overpriced by $250

 

[chance vought]

Not completely related, but this mentality also fuels the YOLO and nihilistic culture surrounding us. If our money is being inflated into being worthless, and the future is dim why not live for today? There is no point to have kids or plan for the future, or even care about long term projects, since they will be pointless. It’s totally fine to scam others. Thats how many people seem to be thinking, and acting. Without God in the equation it’s a recipe for societal collapse.

100%….except I would say it is completely related. When saving is impossible, the only thing to do is YOLO or give up. Obviously I think Bitcoin is the answer to the savings problem.