The China Thread

For those unaware Chinese warships have recently been performing live fire drills in the Tasman Sea between NZ and Australia, disrupting flights between countries. Both Aus and NZ Navy have been monitoring the situation but apparently weren't aware of it until after a Virgin Airlines pilot was made aware. According to local media China has been less than forthcoming about the reasons for this exercise.


 
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Whatever the Project for the New American Century pulled really set back the pursuit of American hegemony and now the returning Trump Administration will have to manage China's rise.

I've found a good article on my feed that gives a good summary on the Biden - Trump Administration and how they will position themselves this coming term now that we're a month in re: China.

I've used AI copy-pasting her article as prompt to give you guys summary points below from Laura Ru's analysis: The MAGA Effect on US-China relations: Strategic ambiguity on steroids.
  1. U.S. Policy Toward China Under Biden and Trump:
    • The Biden administration continued the aggressive U.S. stance toward China, framing it as a battle between democracy and authoritarianism. This included maintaining Trump-era tariffs, imposing export controls on high-tech products, and rallying allies to pressure China.
    • Trump’s approach to China was marked by unpredictability, strategic ambiguity, and a mix of confrontational rhetoric and personal diplomacy. His administration’s policies included tariffs, anti-China media campaigns, and support for anti-government forces in Hong Kong.
  2. Strategic Ambiguity and Madman Theory:
    • The U.S. has long employed strategic ambiguity in its China policy, a tactic that Trump’s volatile behavior amplified. This approach, rooted in the "Madman Theory," aims to keep adversaries off balance by appearing unpredictable.
    • The Trump administration’s mixed messaging on China—ranging from ideological hostility to admiration for China’s advancements—reflects both internal dissonance and a deliberate strategy to maintain leverage.
  3. Taiwan as a Leverage Point:
    • The U.S. has consistently used the Taiwan issue to gain leverage over China, employing "constructive ambiguity" in its statements and actions. This includes arms sales to Taiwan and fluctuating rhetoric on Taiwan’s independence.
    • Trump’s appointees, like Ivan Kanapathy, cautioned against provoking China with unconditional security guarantees for Taiwan, emphasizing the need for Taiwan to increase its own defense spending.
  4. Sino-Russian Partnership as a Counterbalance:
    • The deepening strategic partnership between China and Russia poses a significant challenge to U.S. hegemony. This partnership includes military cooperation, energy deals, and joint efforts in organizations like the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and BRICS.
    • The U.S. views this alliance as a major threat and seeks to drive a wedge between the two nations, though its efforts have been largely unsuccessful.
  5. U.S. Efforts to Maintain Global Influence:
    • The U.S. is focusing on economic growth at home, pressuring allies to increase defense spending, and cultivating relationships with "global swing states" like India, Brazil, and Saudi Arabia.
    • Trump’s administration aims to streamline government operations, reduce wasteful spending, and reindustrialize the U.S. economy through tariffs and reshoring supply chains. However, these measures may exacerbate inflation and inequality.
  6. Cultural and Civilizational Competition:
    • The U.S.-China competition extends beyond economics and geopolitics to include cultural and civilizational dimensions. Trump’s "revolution of common sense" seeks to revive conservative values, but systemic issues like inequality and declining social trust hinder U.S. competitiveness.
    • The article argues that Western capitalism, dominated by corporate power, is at a disadvantage compared to China’s state-directed market system, which is more effective in achieving long-term goals.
  7. Challenges to U.S. Hegemony:
    • The U.S. faces significant challenges in maintaining its global dominance, including military overextension, economic inefficiencies, and declining trust in government.
    • The article concludes that the U.S. is in decline, and its efforts to reverse this trend through aggressive policies and internal reforms are unlikely to succeed without addressing deeper systemic issues.
In summary, the article critiques U.S. strategies toward China, highlighting the challenges posed by China’s rise, the Sino-Russian partnership, and internal U.S. weaknesses. It argues that the U.S. is struggling to adapt to a multipolar world and that its current policies may accelerate its decline.

lauraruggeri.substack.com

The MAGA Effect on US-China relations

Strategic ambiguity on steroids
lauraruggeri.substack.com lauraruggeri.substack.com


Kiwi said:
For those unaware Chinese warships have recently been performing live fire drills in the Tasman Sea between NZ and Australia, disrupting flights between countries. Both Aus and NZ Navy have been monitoring the situation but apparently weren't aware of it until after a Virgin Airlines pilot was made aware. According to local media China has been less than forthcoming about the reasons for this exercise.


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This was tic for tac for spy planes from Australia / US-aligned naval forces around China for the past decade. Now that China is building out and modernizing their navy, they'll use the same freedom of navigation excuse that has been used on them to linger around and experimenting with ways to intimidate the island chains of US-aligned naval bases with the goal of disrupting the 1st Island Chain and to checkmate Taiwan.

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Cooper said:
China has gold stored in the US, has asked for its repatriation and apparently been rebuffed. China might retaliate by selling off US treasuries.

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The US has stalled on giving gold back to numerous countries that had reserves stored in the new york federal reserve building....most notably Germany in the 2010s. This is nothing new. Most people think it's simply because the US secretly spent it in the past 50 years and have to get from elsewhere before "returning it" so they usually stall for time.
 
Caduceus said:
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Bullshit. Taiwan is next. Until the gay jew culture is completely eradicated. The west will continue to lose. Big time. The clash between pretty lies and reality will be brutal. This was inevitable and anyone who isn’t a fag knew it was coming.
 
magoo said:
Bullshit. Taiwan is next. Until the gay jew culture is completely eradicated. The west will continue to lose. Big time. The clash between pretty lies and reality will be brutal. This was inevitable and anyone who isn’t a fag knew it was coming.
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Well hindsight will obviously show what happens but based on Chinese folks I've talked to, they will just wait for 20 - 50 years and get Taiwan back Hong Kong style. I just don't see an invasion happening any time soon, especially with Trump back in office and reversing all of these DEI policies, etc... They are patient, why rush things when you can just wait it out?
Plus with tides there are apparently only 2 times a year that invasion is even possible, which makes things a lot easier prediction wise for the defenders.

It seems like Trump will maintain the anti-China rhetoric until some form of Ukraine peace deal will be achieved, then he will most likely use the goodwill from it to position himself as the one to make a deal with China. What he does in the middle east is where things will get interesting...
 
Northern Pilgrim said:
Well hindsight will obviously show what happens but based on Chinese folks I've talked to, they will just wait for 20 - 50 years and get Taiwan back Hong Kong style. I just don't see an invasion happening any time soon, especially with Trump back in office and reversing all of these DEI policies, etc... They are patient, why rush things when you can just wait it out?
Plus with tides there are apparently only 2 times a year that invasion is even possible, which makes things a lot easier prediction wise for the defenders.
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China could try to impose a blockade on Taiwan to force them to negotiate a gradual reunification process.

Northern Pilgrim said:
It seems like Trump will maintain the anti-China rhetoric until some form of Ukraine peace deal will be achieved, then he will most likely use the goodwill from it to position himself as the one to make a deal with China. What he does in the middle east is where things will get interesting...
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I think the opposite - we'll be disengaging from regional conflicts in Europe and the Middle East to focus all of our resources to contain, not confront, China in the Pacific.
 
Chinese motorcycle food delivery man takes on 2 security guards and kicks both their asses.
I've never seen such dedication to delivering a food order....I hope the person who made the order tipped him well.
Then again....this is China....so the whole thing might be staged.

 
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TruckDriver9 said:
China could try to impose a blockade on Taiwan to force them to negotiate a gradual reunification process.

I think the opposite - we'll be disengaging from regional conflicts in Europe and the Middle East to focus all of our resources to contain, not confront, China in the Pacific.
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The mood in Taiwan these days is less confrontational towards the mainland, partly because China is getting richer and more advanced with time, and partly because the Taiwanese don't want to be the next Ukraine in that proxy war.

China is just going to wait it out, and in 10 or 15 years make its move. Taiwan's demography, like those of other westernized east Asian countries, looks pretty bad, they won't have a lot of young men of military age in the 2030s. Their boomers and Xers are more pro-China than the much smaller younger generations.

One factor that might shake things up a bit earlier than that schedule is that Xi might want to annex Taiwan before he retires. He is 71 now...

cnyg751djwk71.png
 
Cooper said:
The mood in Taiwan these days is less confrontational towards the mainland, partly because China is getting richer and more advanced with time, and partly because the Taiwanese don't want to be the next Ukraine in that proxy war.

China is just going to wait it out, and in 10 or 15 years make its move. Taiwan's demography, like those of other westernized east Asian countries, looks pretty bad, they won't have a lot of young men of military age in the 2030s. Their boomers and Xers are more pro-China than the much smaller younger generations.

One factor that might shake things up a bit earlier than that schedule is that Xi might want to annex Taiwan before he retires. He is 71 now...

cnyg751djwk71.png
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Taiwan's greatest handicap is it's unsustainability. If China blocks their sea lanes, the country will starve. Not just economically, unable to export it's goods, but quite literally, unable to feed its population - US Army War Collage estimates that Taiwan could feed itself for 6 months tops.
No reason to wage open war, which would destroy Taiwan's industrial base in the process, when a naval chokehold could force them to concede.
 
China is absolutely leaving the option of a naval invasion in the table. They’ve recently completed three new ship-to-shore connectors. More probably under construction. The ability to jack up and drop a ramp opens up more coastline that can be used to support logistics. Don’t need a gentle, sandy beach.

www.marineinsight.com

Watch: China’s “Invasion Barges” Seen In Action For The 1st Time

Marine Insight - The maritime industry guide.
www.marineinsight.com www.marineinsight.com
 
Cooper said:
The mood in Taiwan these days is less confrontational towards the mainland,
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Xi might want to annex Taiwan before he retires.
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Communist societies and their Westoid fellow traveller e-supporters have this kind of unique numbness to glaring distinctions between obvious falsehood and truth. They have lost that natural repulsion to blatant inconsistencies that is characteristic of other people. You can see it in the borderline schizophrenic Chang-splaining above. Taiwan should be less confrontational but Xi (might) soon send his entire flotilla over the Strait and invade Taiwan.

This is pure, uncut and undistilled Orwellian doublespeak, victim blaming and subversion right there. Mindf*ckery of the highest order.
 
LaAguilaNegra said:
Communist societies and their Westoid fellow traveller e-supporters have this kind of unique numbness to glaring distinctions between obvious falsehood and truth. They have lost that natural repulsion to blatant inconsistencies that is characteristic of other people. You can see it in the borderline schizophrenic Chang-splaining above. Taiwan should be less confrontational but Xi (might) soon send his entire flotilla over the Strait and invade Taiwan.

This is pure, uncut and undistilled Orwellian doublespeak, victim blaming and subversion right there. Mindf*ckery of the highest order.
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China is not quite a communist country. They can sport giant portraits of Mao and big hammer and sickle shields, but beyond those vestigial symbolisms, the fact remains that it is not a communist country. The share of China's public sector in its GDP is slightly lower than the US, significantly lower than those of Japan and Canada, and much lower than France, Sweden, Germany etc.

The biggest proof that China isn't a communist country is that its economy has been booming, and has significantly enriched its citizens. Communism doesn't work, but the Chinese system does, having delivered wealth, stability and technological progress to its citizens. They went from a GDP per capita lower than Haiti's under communism, to the top industrial economy in the world under their current system of industrial capitalism.

And BTW, the two statements above, that the Taiwanese have no appetite for confrontation with China, and that Xi might want to annex Taiwan before he retires, are not mutually exclusive statements. Perhaps you might want to work on developing your aptitude in logic instead of resorting to cheap aggro namecalling.
 
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Cooper said:
China is not quite a communist country. They can sport giant portraits of Mao and big hammer and sickle shields, but beyond those vestigial symbolisms, the fact remains that it is not a communist country. The share of China's public sector in its GDP is slightly lower than the US, significantly lower than those of Japan and Canada, and much lower than France, Sweden, Germany etc.

The biggest proof that China isn't a communist country is that its economy has been booming, and has significantly enriched its citizens. Communism doesn't work, but the Chinese system does, having delivered wealth, stability and technological progress to its citizens. They went from a GDP per capita lower than Haiti's under communism, to the top industrial economy in the world under their current system of industrial capitalism.

And BTW, the two statements above, that the Taiwanese have no appetite for confrontation with China, and that Xi might want to annex Taiwan before he retires, are not mutually exclusive statements. Perhaps you might want to work on developing your aptitude in logic instead of resorting to cheap aggro namecalling.
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It's a communist dictatorship because there is only 1 political party and no way to have elections for a change in central government.

Also, most of the economy is centrally planned, with private businesses given free reign in a limited fashion, very similar to the New Economic Policy that existed in the USSR in the early 1920s under Lenin.
 
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