The China Thread

For those unaware Chinese warships have recently been performing live fire drills in the Tasman Sea between NZ and Australia, disrupting flights between countries. Both Aus and NZ Navy have been monitoring the situation but apparently weren't aware of it until after a Virgin Airlines pilot was made aware. According to local media China has been less than forthcoming about the reasons for this exercise.


 
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Whatever the Project for the New American Century pulled really set back the pursuit of American hegemony and now the returning Trump Administration will have to manage China's rise.

I've found a good article on my feed that gives a good summary on the Biden - Trump Administration and how they will position themselves this coming term now that we're a month in re: China.

I've used AI copy-pasting her article as prompt to give you guys summary points below from Laura Ru's analysis: The MAGA Effect on US-China relations: Strategic ambiguity on steroids.
  1. U.S. Policy Toward China Under Biden and Trump:
    • The Biden administration continued the aggressive U.S. stance toward China, framing it as a battle between democracy and authoritarianism. This included maintaining Trump-era tariffs, imposing export controls on high-tech products, and rallying allies to pressure China.
    • Trump’s approach to China was marked by unpredictability, strategic ambiguity, and a mix of confrontational rhetoric and personal diplomacy. His administration’s policies included tariffs, anti-China media campaigns, and support for anti-government forces in Hong Kong.
  2. Strategic Ambiguity and Madman Theory:
    • The U.S. has long employed strategic ambiguity in its China policy, a tactic that Trump’s volatile behavior amplified. This approach, rooted in the "Madman Theory," aims to keep adversaries off balance by appearing unpredictable.
    • The Trump administration’s mixed messaging on China—ranging from ideological hostility to admiration for China’s advancements—reflects both internal dissonance and a deliberate strategy to maintain leverage.
  3. Taiwan as a Leverage Point:
    • The U.S. has consistently used the Taiwan issue to gain leverage over China, employing "constructive ambiguity" in its statements and actions. This includes arms sales to Taiwan and fluctuating rhetoric on Taiwan’s independence.
    • Trump’s appointees, like Ivan Kanapathy, cautioned against provoking China with unconditional security guarantees for Taiwan, emphasizing the need for Taiwan to increase its own defense spending.
  4. Sino-Russian Partnership as a Counterbalance:
    • The deepening strategic partnership between China and Russia poses a significant challenge to U.S. hegemony. This partnership includes military cooperation, energy deals, and joint efforts in organizations like the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and BRICS.
    • The U.S. views this alliance as a major threat and seeks to drive a wedge between the two nations, though its efforts have been largely unsuccessful.
  5. U.S. Efforts to Maintain Global Influence:
    • The U.S. is focusing on economic growth at home, pressuring allies to increase defense spending, and cultivating relationships with "global swing states" like India, Brazil, and Saudi Arabia.
    • Trump’s administration aims to streamline government operations, reduce wasteful spending, and reindustrialize the U.S. economy through tariffs and reshoring supply chains. However, these measures may exacerbate inflation and inequality.
  6. Cultural and Civilizational Competition:
    • The U.S.-China competition extends beyond economics and geopolitics to include cultural and civilizational dimensions. Trump’s "revolution of common sense" seeks to revive conservative values, but systemic issues like inequality and declining social trust hinder U.S. competitiveness.
    • The article argues that Western capitalism, dominated by corporate power, is at a disadvantage compared to China’s state-directed market system, which is more effective in achieving long-term goals.
  7. Challenges to U.S. Hegemony:
    • The U.S. faces significant challenges in maintaining its global dominance, including military overextension, economic inefficiencies, and declining trust in government.
    • The article concludes that the U.S. is in decline, and its efforts to reverse this trend through aggressive policies and internal reforms are unlikely to succeed without addressing deeper systemic issues.
In summary, the article critiques U.S. strategies toward China, highlighting the challenges posed by China’s rise, the Sino-Russian partnership, and internal U.S. weaknesses. It argues that the U.S. is struggling to adapt to a multipolar world and that its current policies may accelerate its decline.

lauraruggeri.substack.com

The MAGA Effect on US-China relations

Strategic ambiguity on steroids
lauraruggeri.substack.com lauraruggeri.substack.com


Kiwi said:
For those unaware Chinese warships have recently been performing live fire drills in the Tasman Sea between NZ and Australia, disrupting flights between countries. Both Aus and NZ Navy have been monitoring the situation but apparently weren't aware of it until after a Virgin Airlines pilot was made aware. According to local media China has been less than forthcoming about the reasons for this exercise.


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This was tic for tac for spy planes from Australia / US-aligned naval forces around China for the past decade. Now that China is building out and modernizing their navy, they'll use the same freedom of navigation excuse that has been used on them to linger around and experimenting with ways to intimidate the island chains of US-aligned naval bases with the goal of disrupting the 1st Island Chain and to checkmate Taiwan.

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Cooper said:
China has gold stored in the US, has asked for its repatriation and apparently been rebuffed. China might retaliate by selling off US treasuries.

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The US has stalled on giving gold back to numerous countries that had reserves stored in the new york federal reserve building....most notably Germany in the 2010s. This is nothing new. Most people think it's simply because the US secretly spent it in the past 50 years and have to get from elsewhere before "returning it" so they usually stall for time.
 
Cooper said:
China has gold stored in the US, has asked for its repatriation and apparently been rebuffed. China might retaliate by selling off US treasuries.

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I have checked with a Chinese influencer that follows up on Gold news. He hasn't mentioned anything on this so all I know is that the Chinese media is not making any fuss about this...
 
Caduceus said:
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Bullshit. Taiwan is next. Until the gay jew culture is completely eradicated. The west will continue to lose. Big time. The clash between pretty lies and reality will be brutal. This was inevitable and anyone who isn’t a fag knew it was coming.
 
magoo said:
Bullshit. Taiwan is next. Until the gay jew culture is completely eradicated. The west will continue to lose. Big time. The clash between pretty lies and reality will be brutal. This was inevitable and anyone who isn’t a fag knew it was coming.
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Well hindsight will obviously show what happens but based on Chinese folks I've talked to, they will just wait for 20 - 50 years and get Taiwan back Hong Kong style. I just don't see an invasion happening any time soon, especially with Trump back in office and reversing all of these DEI policies, etc... They are patient, why rush things when you can just wait it out?
Plus with tides there are apparently only 2 times a year that invasion is even possible, which makes things a lot easier prediction wise for the defenders.

It seems like Trump will maintain the anti-China rhetoric until some form of Ukraine peace deal will be achieved, then he will most likely use the goodwill from it to position himself as the one to make a deal with China. What he does in the middle east is where things will get interesting...
 
Northern Pilgrim said:
Well hindsight will obviously show what happens but based on Chinese folks I've talked to, they will just wait for 20 - 50 years and get Taiwan back Hong Kong style. I just don't see an invasion happening any time soon, especially with Trump back in office and reversing all of these DEI policies, etc... They are patient, why rush things when you can just wait it out?
Plus with tides there are apparently only 2 times a year that invasion is even possible, which makes things a lot easier prediction wise for the defenders.
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China could try to impose a blockade on Taiwan to force them to negotiate a gradual reunification process.

Northern Pilgrim said:
It seems like Trump will maintain the anti-China rhetoric until some form of Ukraine peace deal will be achieved, then he will most likely use the goodwill from it to position himself as the one to make a deal with China. What he does in the middle east is where things will get interesting...
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I think the opposite - we'll be disengaging from regional conflicts in Europe and the Middle East to focus all of our resources to contain, not confront, China in the Pacific.
 
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