Iran-Israeli Conflict Thread

This story has been buzzing around the internet for a couple of days already but is looking more solid by the day. There is a significant amount of dark fleet tankers passing the Strait of Hormuz already, if relatively successfull crossing will become an insurance policy matter for legitimate vessels. Due to the total destruction of all Iranian naval assets the Iranians are no longer capable of imposing a total blockade over the Strait of Hormuz. Tanker companies turn off their AIS transponders and are paying their sailors double or even triple to take the gamble. By March 7 the Greek businessman George Prokopiou had sent 5 tankers through the Strait already.





 
I heard this interview today hosted by a South African podcaster, he interviewed an Iranian female doctor on the war. I dont agree with everything she says but I wanted to hear what some Iranian people are saying about this war
www.ukcolumn.org

Dr Setareh Sadeqi on why America won’t defeat Iran | Jerm Warfare

Regional dynamics and historical context further shape Iran's position, underscoring the complexity of the situation and the determination of its people to maintain independence.
www.ukcolumn.org www.ukcolumn.org
I am aware that not all Iranians hold the same view nor do they share the same religion.

She uses some bad example about Nelson Mandela (he wasnt just labelled a terrorist he actually was one and used violence and explosions and killed people) She says Iran is fighting Epstein Island satanic peodophiles, cannibal, rapists and murderers, colonialists, imperialists, but at the same time her prophet married a 9 year old, raped, murdered, started war and colonized nations, hypocracy and double standards, Islamists are also imperialists, but worth the listen anyway.
 
The Carrier Strike Group Abraham Lincoln has moved into the Gulf of Oman and is now only a few hundred kilometers from Iranian shores. The USS Lincoln is the main launchpad from which the US is currently striking Iranian targets in Sistan- Balochistan near the Pakistani border, first time in the war





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GodfatherPartTwo said:
Iran would be foolish to trust any "ceasefire" from America and Israel since the latter have never honored any of the ceasefires they made. It would be like letting up when your opponent calls "time out" only for him to strike you in the face again after you put your guard down. Logistically, the fake ceasefires are lopsided in the advantage they provide to the US.
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Contributing Iran's continuously deteriorating position to their leadership's inability to 'negotiate ceasefires' doesn't make much sense when the mullah've just been talked up as 5D chess master strategists who've put Washington (the actual 5D strategist) on the backfoot or whatever.

Reality is much simpler and requires less mental gymnastics. Iran accepted (and will accept if it gets the chance) disadvantageous ceasefires/deals - which are actually more like impositions, because it has little leverage and the alternative is worse, aka getting dissected piece by piece. Tehran was never foolish or trusting of DC to begin with. In other words, past ceasefires and strategic withdrawals by the Iranian leadership did not happen because they are stupid, but because the Iranians were forced to do so and Tehran did not see any other option.

The current bout isn't looking to good either - if one can look past hype at least. The US cannot be military defeated nor dented, Iran's unable to inflict serious casualties on neither the US nor Israel, the Gulfies are not interested in switching sides, the much talked up missile deterrent has turned into a sideshow utilized for propaganda purposes only, there is no big player backing them up, and they have lost most of their military assets+ are dealing with 900-1000 enemy precision strikes per day. Tehran's only leverage left is the blockade ace-card, which will decide where this will end. However, so far the blockade's effect is still in the open and you can bet big money on it that the US has wargamed a calamity like this at least 100 times.
 
LaAguilaNegra said:
Tehran's only leverage left is the blockade ace-card, which will decide where this will end. However, so far the blockade's effect is still in the open and you can bet big money on it that the US has wargamed a calamity like this at least 100 times.
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Bingo. Most of the Iranian Navy is sunk and their anti-shipping capability has been severely degraded. The only vessel sunk has been a tugboat. As Epic Fury continues expect to see the West further secure the Strait of Hormuz. Houthi campaign writ large.
 
Ember said:
If the Russians were to insist that the Iranians agree to a ceasefire knowing full well that it would likely lead to repeat of the conflict later on, it would the most incredible hypocrisy, and the Iranians would certainly point that out. It's not happening, IMHO. The Russians would never be that shameless.
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Russians know full well that the west can't be trusted regarding ceasefires and literally anything war related.

The only scenario where it makes sense is if it's some 4D chess BRICS move where there's economic benefit for those states, in addition to a resolution in the Ukraine.
 
Additional imagery of destroyed Iranian naval assets. First video is from yesterday, a Soleimani class Corvette that was passed off as civilian for some reason. Second video includes a capsized Mowj class Corvette in the Bushehr Naval Base.



 
I come here and I start thinking the tide is turning and people are starting to understand what these wars are really about. I talk to my friends and family people in my circle and they also understand what these wars are really about, some more than others but generally they do.

Then I go into the world and talk to acquaintances and it just seems nothing has changed, they are still falling for the same tricks. I talked to a casual friend of mine today at the gym and she said she had a party tonight with her Iranian friends they were celebrating and invited me to come. I told her that they should understand that this war isn't about them they are not even an afterthought in all of this, as someone whose parents are Christians from Iraq I know better than most that they have nothing to be celebrating. I mentioned israel and the true reason for the war and she became offended telling me they are better than "Islam", I told her how at least with Muslims I know what they are with jews they will deceive you every chance they get and hell the reason Muslim countries hate us in the first place is because of jews. She then proceeded to say something about "Gods chosen people" and that's when I changed the subject. Since then she's been texting me Christian themed videos about how we're supposed to protect the jews and israel according to god, I haven't watched a single one. This is a relatively young attractive staunchly conservative girl her parents are from Serbia....I was shocked to hear these things from her.


When this all started I was pissed, then I thought okay maybe this will be clean and serve a purpose but now it's not looking like that at all and I am pissed again.
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Spending too much time in one-sided online echochambers is unhealthy, agreed. It's also true that in large parts of the world the Iranian regime is absolutely detested and in the broader sense Islam isn't really considered a force or good either. Theology aside, Serbs and Diaspora Iranians belong to at least the first of those groups and to some degree the second.

Starting with the Serbs, they know their history. Especially older Serbs are very much aware of the role the IRGC+ Hezbollah played in the attempted Muslim genocide of ethnic Serbs in especially Bosnia and later Kosovo (although the IRGC role in the latter was less obvious). Serbs are also aware that the IRGC till this day covertly maintains its positions in the Bosniak governed part of BiH. The above directly ties into regional politics, Balkan Muslims weaponize their clientele status with Ankara and Tehran to fortify their position vs. Serbs (and others), both Vucic and Dodik on the other hand are very close to Netanyahu.

For most Serbs it's hard to be edgy internetlords and engage in non-sensical fanboy-ism when barely a generation ago Balkan Muslims fanatics and their foreign backers were playing football with the severed heads of captured Bosnian Serb citizens, proudly proclaiming Belgrade would be next. The Bosnia War in itself was just the latest chapter of Muslim ambitions in the Balkan turned genocidal, Serbs (and others) have lived under Ottoman rule for nearly 400 years. With a currently resurgent Turkey and a Trump Administration that is looking to dial down US involvement in the Balkan future conflict is no longer a fantastical scenario either.









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It is reported that American servicemen were wounded at the strike on the Millennium Tower in Bahrain and they have been transferred to a hospital in Manama.





Reportedly, another MQ-9 Reaper shot down in Iraq.





WSJ: Trump advisers are urging him to find an off-ramp, fearing electoral backlash.

 
Sal Mercogliano at What's Going On With Shipping:

Commercial shipping is avoiding the Strait of Hormuz due to legitimate security risks and insurance constraints.

The Straight of Hormuz remains a highly volatile and dangerous maritime corridor.

Despite public calls to "show guts", the absence of a US naval presence undermines confidence in safe passage.

Effective reopening of the Strait requires coordinated military escort operations, insurance support, and diplomatic efforts to reduce threats.

The US and allied navies face logistical and strategic challenges in securing the area.

Other powers, such as the Chinese, are moving themselves closer to the region.

Discourse on maritime security strategy remains contentious.





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LaAguilaNegra said:
This story has been buzzing around the internet for a couple of days already but is looking more solid by the day. There is a significant amount of dark fleet tankers passing the Strait of Hormuz already, if relatively successfull crossing will become an insurance policy matter for legitimate vessels. Due to the total destruction of all Iranian naval assets the Iranians are no longer capable of imposing a total blockade over the Strait of Hormuz. Tanker companies turn off their AIS transponders and are paying their sailors double or even triple to take the gamble. By March 7 the Greek businessman George Prokopiou had sent 5 tankers through the Strait already.
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I want you to read the article. I’d also like to point out that Iran already has at least one of these models: the Azhdar. It reaches 18-25 knots, with batteries that can last up to 4 days in patrol mode and cover more than 600 km at low speed.

It’s not Iran’s ships that keep the Strait of Hormuz closed, it’s a highly modern asymmetric arsenal of UUVs, USVs, UAVs, anti-ship missiles, and fast boats armed with missiles.

I’d say the chances of the US-Israel having success in any forceful action to open the strait are very low."
 
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