Iran-Israeli Conflict Thread
- Thread starter LaAguilaNegra
- Start date
Iran is going to keep going until the Gulf States evict the US. They will not settle for a ceasefire where America gets to rebuild a supply of interceptors. They have also said that they wish to punish America and Israel in such a way that they will never consider attacking again. That means weeks or months of inflicting of economic pain.
Yes, Iran is in it for the long haul. It's do or die for them. Something will have to give this time.
This makes sense compared to negotiating with Jews. There has to be guarantees, but since the other party is completely untrustworthy, you have to resort to this.
There's no upside for Iran to stop now.
Iran wants a permanent solution or it will all start all over again once the US and Izrael have rearmed.
I think the key to this offramp is the the US/Israel don't have complete air superiority over Iranian territory and are having a hard time flying over Iran with loitering/surveillance drones, Iran having shot down several dozens already.
Contrary to what was mentioned earlier, the US/Israel have been mostly using stand off weapons in their attacks, as opposed to bombing sites directly with gravity bombs like they do in Gaza and over Lebanon, and the supply of these stand off weapons is finite. Hence the significant drop in the frequency and scale of US/Israeli bombings.
Iran has too much strategic depth, too big a territory from which to place and launch their large missile stock for the US/Israel to cover without complete air superiority.
Contrary to what was mentioned earlier, the US/Israel have been mostly using stand off weapons in their attacks, as opposed to bombing sites directly with gravity bombs like they do in Gaza and over Lebanon, and the supply of these stand off weapons is finite. Hence the significant drop in the frequency and scale of US/Israeli bombings.
Iran has too much strategic depth, too big a territory from which to place and launch their large missile stock for the US/Israel to cover without complete air superiority.
So if Trump calls this off, what happens to all the damage caused to all the US military bases in the various gulf countries ?
Iran is just supposed to stop all hostilities and twiddle its thumbs and whistle while the US takes months (or years) to rebuild all the military bases in the gulf states stronger and more deadly than before ? I seriously doubt the Iranians will let that fly
Also, both China and Russia want those US military bases in the gulf gone for their own selfish reasons such as for naval trade routes and for overall global control, so I'm sure they are assisting Iran to make sure they won't be fixed or rebuilt.
Not sure how Trump walking away from the conflict resolves this issue.
Iran is just supposed to stop all hostilities and twiddle its thumbs and whistle while the US takes months (or years) to rebuild all the military bases in the gulf states stronger and more deadly than before ? I seriously doubt the Iranians will let that fly
Also, both China and Russia want those US military bases in the gulf gone for their own selfish reasons such as for naval trade routes and for overall global control, so I'm sure they are assisting Iran to make sure they won't be fixed or rebuilt.
Not sure how Trump walking away from the conflict resolves this issue.
$120/barrel oil is a disaster for Trump. That is less sustainable than the interceptor depletion.
Depends....if he sells the Venezuela oil he controls at that price or higher, it could be a win.
Depends on the duration, but if he sells it that high, how does it help his constituency? My gasoline prices have gone up about $0.70 since the war started, although we frequently have spontaneous $0.50 swings here for no apparent reason, the swings being from the lowest cost station to the highest, not necessarily the city average, which is probably a little more stable.
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Venezuela cannot supply enough oil to replace Gulf sources. It's a pipe dream.
CentCom caught blaming that an Iranian Drone struck a residential Bahrain neighborhood when it was an interceptor that failed.
In reaction to this event, Bahrain will now seek death penalty for photographing damages from Iranian attacks.
In reaction to this event, Bahrain will now seek death penalty for photographing damages from Iranian attacks.
"Just had the most intense two hours of bombardment here since Israel began its criminal war in Iran. Israeli citizens received a full demonstration of how dazed and confused our civil defense is, and I live in a well-to-do area. Just as Israel thrives on denying the humanity of its victims in Palestine, Iran and Lebanon, so do Israelis thrive on complete and utter dissociation from their own lives, on murderous solipsism. This works exactly until the second it stops working. Then it comes tumbling down like a house of cards."
"The historic victory over Iran and Hezbollah was so historic that we're now sitting in the shelter for the fourth time today, after a series of combined barrages from Iran and Hezbollah."
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On second thought, the ultimate flex for Iran would be to require Israel to let all aid into Gaza through, and to cease their bombings in Gaza and Lebanon, or else the Boom Boom Tel Aviv show goes on.
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Iran has always refused their right to even exist as a country.
Asking for Gaza aid, or to cease bombing of neighboring areas is very small potatoes in comparison.
However, as always, real negotiating power lies in whoever ultimately has the upper hand, so it's unclear what will really be demanded.
This seems like wishful thinking. It's understandable that people want to see Israel get their comeuppance (especially after what they did in Gaza). But remember that Iran did not want this war in the first place. They don't gain anything by having the crap bombed out of their country. They're like a wounded animal fighting for its survival: they don't need to kill/destroy their attacker, they just need to survive and hopefully dissuade their opponent from coming after them again.
If Russia and China both lean on Iran to take an off ramp, then some sort of ceasefire could be achieved fairly quickly. The reality is that no one benefits from this war dragging on any longer. The global economy is too integrated; supply chains are too long and interwoven to tolerate an ongoing crisis of this magnitude.
The whole episode at this point seems like a combination of Israeli blood thirst/insanity combined with Trump's hubris and shallow thinking. The best you can say is that Trump rolled the dice by going along with Israel's attack, and was banking on an internal Iranian coup and regime change following Khamenai's death. This was a very dumb plan with an extremely low likelihood of success, but Trump was probably convinced otherwise by his Jewish handlers.
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran:
Any Arab or European country that expels the Israeli and American ambassadors from its territories will be granted full authorization and freedom of passage through the Strait of Hormuz starting tomorrow.
Any Arab or European country that expels the Israeli and American ambassadors from its territories will be granted full authorization and freedom of passage through the Strait of Hormuz starting tomorrow.