Iran-Israeli Conflict Thread
- Thread starter LaAguilaNegra
- Start date
Wouldn't that be an excuse for a safety measure?
I was looking at that account reporting the assassination attempt and it seems to be some pro Trump Jew who is posting the Jew equivalent of all the third world slop accounts saying Iran has killed/captured 500 American soldiers. I'm sure if the new Ayatollah had been seriously wounded we would already be seeing Israeli news sources jumping on it in the same way they announced the death of the previous Ayatollah pretty early before any other news sources did. The simpler explanation for the cut board is security reasons.
EDIT: actually saw there is some news that he is wounded. I'm guessing he got hurt during the initial barrage of missiles that assassinated a lot of the other Iranian leadership.
EDIT: actually saw there is some news that he is wounded. I'm guessing he got hurt during the initial barrage of missiles that assassinated a lot of the other Iranian leadership.
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I don't think there's one, blanket explanation to all of these strikes. Some could be just collateral, others a result of bad intel, and some for sure deliberate. In this particular case, I think we were given bad intel. Doesn't matter if accidentally, or deliberately, cause it's pretty clear that it wasn't double-checked. Which leads to what I think is the problem - blind trust in Israeli targeting data, which, based on the previous conflicts, is known to have a higher tolerance for collateral damage.
I wish it were but I think he's bluffing (just based on pure odds, how far they've gone so far and how we're only 7 days in), so I'm going with market manipulation and hope.
It is what the Iranians have repeatedly demanded. A ceasefire now will guarantee the same problems further down the line. They are through with the cycle, and will only settle for a permanent resolution. Something that the radicals in the White House are never, ever, going to agree to.
This is wishful thinking. The Chinese are the beneficiaries of US military resources being squandered on a futile war with Iran. They know the US China hawks are having fits over the depletion of weapon stockpiles. Russia likely also knows that the cycle will just repeat if the US and Israel are let off the hook. Besides, they are making an absolute fortune from increased energy prices. They will happily see it go on a good while longer. It also means less weapons for Ukraine.
Both Russia and China benefit a lot from US bleeding itself out in this: dependency on Russian energy grows and gives them leverage over Ukraine and EU, their stock market grows and for China depleted US means bigger possibility of capturing Taiwan plus US economy would buckle much sooner than Chinese in this oil crunch. Their problems pale in comparison to US's problems. If Iran gains offensive advantage, short of nuke being dropped, there is no reason to stop until it gives US/Israhell a black eye.
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Iran would be foolish to trust any "ceasefire" from America and Israel since the latter have never honored any of the ceasefires they made. It would be like letting up when your opponent calls "time out" only for him to strike you in the face again after you put your guard down. Logistically, the fake ceasefires are lopsided in the advantage they provide to the US.
Trump is now saying that it was not a US Tomahawk that struck the school, but either an Iranian Tomahawk, or one owned by another country! He REALLY does not want to admit US responsibility.
Meanwhile, in Israel....
Another hotel in Bahrain smashed with a Shahed drone.
Meanwhile, in Israel....
Another hotel in Bahrain smashed with a Shahed drone.
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American bullets and missiles are specially engineered to kill only terrorists. They have no effect against civilians, they won't phase them. No Iranian civilians have ever been killed by the US, only terrorists.
Of course this is what they are saying, just like the U.S. is saying they have the capability of sustaining the war indefinitely. You never, ever want to project any sort of weakness in the midst of a conflict, even if you have been weakened by your opponent. Especially if you have been weakened by your opponent!
While it's true that this war is weakening the U.S. (which would obviously seem to benefit Russia and China as America's rivals), I think the leadership of those countries is very conservative and pragmatic, and would prefer not to risk the chaotic and unpredictable downstream consequences of this war continuing. China is and has been playing the long game masterfully, and Russia under Putin is extremely practical in its approach to statecraft. The fact is, they don't need this war to weaken the United States; our own woeful policies have been doing a stellar job of that without any foreign interference. But for all of America's faults, it still possesses the most formidable military in the world, and a frightening nuclear arsenal. That's not something you want to play around with if you are Russia and China, especially if you increasingly regard the leadership of the U.S. and their Israeli allies as dangerously delusional and unhinged (which they apparently do).
Russia and China want to stand by as the U.S. slowly bleeds out, they don't want to directly confront them and trigger a conflict that could lead to global nuclear war. Nor do they want to see the U.S. fall into such a desperate position that they do something incredibly stupid like launch nukes at Iran, a possibility that while hopefully remote, grows more likely the longer the conflict drags on. That is why I predict that both Russia and China will use their considerable leverage over Iran to encourage some sort of peace deal. Of course, perhaps I am misreading the situation and you all are correct. We shall see.
If the Russians were to insist that the Iranians agree to a ceasefire knowing full well that it would likely lead to repeat of the conflict later on, it would the most incredible hypocrisy, and the Iranians would certainly point that out. It's not happening, IMHO. The Russians would never be that shameless.
