Geopolitics Lounge

A new war in Central Africa is brewing. The Rwanda supported M23 movement continues taking ground with first hand witnesses stating that the Rwandese military is in fact active in Congo - backed up by a The Guardian report using satellite imagery on the many fresh graves in Rwanda's military cemeteries. Today Uganda's Chief of Staff is threatening to enter Congo.

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On the Congolese side there are contingents of Burundian, Tanzanian, Malawian and South African soldiers under the MONUSCO UN label in the Kivu area. Yesterday reports came in that Burundian forces had entered the South Kivu border area to halt the M23 advance on their own but were beaten back.
 
Cooper said:
Congo produces the majority of the world's cobalt, this is a play for this ressource, with Israel backing Rwanda/Kagame/M23.







Congo has 100 million people, and one of the highest fertility rates in the world at 6.11 births/woman. The crisis there is going to have an impact on immigration to Europe.
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Per usual wrong on all counts, Israeli businessmen have been running a significant chunk of the Congolese mines since the days of Mobutu. Jewish tycoons started moving into the Congo during the 60s and eventually became the main players during the 90 Congolese Civil War, spearheaded by Maurice Templesman who at that time was one of the main financiers of the US Democratic Party. It's all Chabadniks, big names are Oppenheimer, Mendell, Forrest, Blattner, Hertzov, Gertler, Steinmetz etc. Nearly all have dual citizenship, Canadian, US, Russian and more. Chabadniks get access to the Congolese mines in exchange for high-level Israeli defense and intelligence assistance, and they do business with everyone including China.

US has been getting more proactive about self sufficiency and fool-proofing the supply chains, especially those supply chains related to critical infrastructure. In short the Trump Administration wants to take over control over the source of many raw materials. Not controlling the supply change at the source became a concern during the Trump Administration 1.0 already.

Dan Gertler with current Congolese president Tsishekedi
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The most notable Israeli tycoon in Congo is Dan Gertler, Chabadnik billionaire. Owns the Emaxon Finance Corporation/ DiamondWorks, which owns/owned majority rights in many of the diamond, lithium and cobalt mines in Congo. The kosher Chabadnik gang owns a flurry of mining companies operating in Congo and routinely changes names and numbers. Some of the bigger companies are Dan Gertler International (DGI), Steinmetz Global Resources, International Diamond Industries, NIKANOR and Global Enterprises Corporate. To move money and goods Gertler especially uses a complex network of interconnected companies, often registered in offshore tax havens and involved in India, Russia, Belgium and the United States.

www.atlanticcouncil.org

In a Congolese mining case, Biden can secure a win for US sanctions policy in Africa

Easing sanctions on Dan Gertler gives Washington the opportunity to show that its sanctions policy toward Africa can be effective.
www.atlanticcouncil.org www.atlanticcouncil.org

US wants and will take over the mines. Gertler got sanctioned in 2017 under the Trump Administration 1.0 (legal framework provided by Magnitsky Act), and Gertler and others were forced to sell a significant amount of the mines. Unexpectedly the Chinese grabbed the opportunity and starting ramping up operations after that. Biden enforced sanctions relief during his Administration. Most of these kosher tycoons still live part time in Congo, Gertler for one lives in the most expensive villa in Lumumbashi, Katanga state. His kosher meals get flown in from Kinshasa at 23 000 USD a flight. Gertler's personal rabbi Shlomo Bentolila is the highest Chabad representative in Central Africa and part of the Commitee of the Jewish Community in Kinsasha. He continues outstanding ties with Congo's political elite as does the Jewish community. When Bentolila son Binyamin had his bar mitzvah then President Joseph Kabila was present at the ceremony.

Congo due to its resources will play an important role in the US' geostrategy. Eric Prince's organization signed a deal with the Kinshasha government to acquire mining rights in return for security and low key military aid against the M23 movement. Clear sign that Tsishekedi is aligning with the US, and this formal agreement will be followed up by an official Congo - US mineral deal.

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If the US provokes a war with China in the South China Sea, Japan will flip to the Global South and BRICS. They have very strong pacifist tendencies and a movement that already protests for the removal of US bases.

Japan will flip anyway, given time, but a war will force the issue.

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Ember said:
If the US provokes a war with China in the South China Sea, Japan will flip to the Global South and BRICS. They have very strong pacifist tendencies and a movement that already protests for the removal of US bases.

Japan will flip anyway, given time, but a war will force the issue.

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There is a nationalist element in Japan that has resented being occupied for decades, not the Yakuzas and corporate types that are part of the local chapter of the deep state and pay lip service to Japanese nationalism, but older families and noble stock that are still influential and have some presence in the military and professional ranks. They see the current situation as an opportunity to build a wider coalition with Trump antagonizing the zaibatsu business conglomerate establishment with his tariffs and overly aggressive economic bullying.

This is a behavior pattern that is deeply engrained in Japanese culture, historically you had smaller fiefdoms paying tributes to larger regional daimyos (feudal lords), but when those daimyos pushed too far, the vassals would plot to switch allegiance to the rival daimyo, which in modern-day Japan's case is China.
 
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expectation said:




Spain doesn't want to be spied by the Five Eyes anymore.
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The first western European country that is going to break the NATO/EU geopolitical mold is going to thrive economically, while the rest of western Europe sinks. In eastern Europe, Hungary has taken that initiative, dealing with Russia and collaboration with China (big BYD plant).

For a while I thought that leader in western Europe would be Italy under Meloni, but she turned out to be a compliant dud. Spain is the country that is taking the lead, the European auto industry is shifting from Germany to Spain, which is heavily invested in the EV industry, mostly with European brands, as well as Chinese battery giant CATL. Spain today produces about as many cars as France and Italy combined. Look for a big Chinese EV company to open shop in Spain soon.
 
Team Trump and the Neoclowns will be seething.

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Xi Jinping has urged the Global South to challenge the West and form an "orderly multipolar world".

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The NYT admits that the world is queueing up to meet Putin, and that the failure of US diplomacy has brought the SCO countries together.

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Nepalese landmark parliament building burned down by the "Gen Z" color revolution.

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Ember said:
Team Trump and the Neoclowns will be seething.

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Xi Jinping has urged the Global South to challenge the West and form an "orderly multipolar world".

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The NYT admits that the world is queueing up to meet Putin, and that the failure of US diplomacy has brought the SCO countries together.

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Sorry bucko, noone outside thirdworldist echochambers shares your alarmist babble. Geopolitics by definition is deceptive, diplomatic and self-serving. It also happens in gradation, meaning that thinking in ideological extremes whilst losing sight of strategic objectives and mitigating realities per default leads to wrong conclusions. Turdworldists' rabid dopamine addled brains just can't stop running from happening to happening, constantly looking for news scraps that can be framed in such a way that it confirms their faulty and extreme convictions. Now it's Modi's turn, the man is simply renegotiating his position with Washington aka he hasn't come to terms yet with having to concede on India's previous advangeous and lowkey parasitical position.

There is a dent in the US- India relationship, like so many before have happened. Thats about it. The Trump Administration is re-setting all previous frameworks under the nomer 'Biden did it so it doesn't count, new sheriff in town', and some have more issues accepting this than others. Kind reminder that just 4 weeks ago the buckos were gleefully posting similarly alarmist and gloomy articles on how 'Washington would lose Brussels and Tokyo'. A few days later the oaths of vassalage were renewed, and the usual suspects immediately moved onto greener pastures aka stopped talking about this new undesirable reality.

China and Russia shouldn't be grouped in together anyway, not in any circumstance or context related to India. Those with a bare minimum of historical and geopolitical knowledge know that 1. the Russia- India bond has always ranged from good to excellent, and that 2. the Indian- China relationship cannot move beyond lukewarm due to territorial disputes, historical animosity, geostrategic competition and a hostile Indian population due to a decade of heavy anti-CCP/Congress/Pakistan propaganda on behalf of the Hindutva aligned Modi clique.

India is not (yet) able to sit at the big boy table ergo will play off different states against one another. Furthermore the 7 day war with Pakistan has damaged Modi's image in the eyes of BJP/RSS hardliners. Modi started a war with a neighbour 1/10th of India's GDP, yet backed off as soon as he realized the Pakistani were able to keep pace on the escalation ladder and were not going to budge. Indian grandstanding and showmanship aside, the BJP rank and file actually understand India got nothing out of the May War. Modi is trying to divert that looming discontent, first towards China due to overt Chinese support for the Pakistani, and now onto the US. Modi aligned media claims the US was responsible for prioritizing Pakistan hence backstabbing India. Washington on the other hand is reponding by slowdripping curated information on the war to damage Modi's image domestically (think 7 downed Indian jets, Modi calling Washington to beg for a ceasefire, Modi accepting Washington's ceasefire proposal without consulting the Army and after only 4 hours after Trump gave him 24 hours to think about it, etc.).

Yet the quarreling, fake bravado and yada-yada don't change the chips on the table. India needs the US. Indian politics only goes as far the next election cycle, and the US is by far the biggest player in Indian politics. Modi does not want to risk the Trump Administration shifting support to Congress. Modi also needs to balance out the looming Chinese dominance by playing the two of each other, and the US is a very important contributor to economic progress aka political stability aka Modi's political survival. The Indian military is increasingly getting integrated into Transatlantic frameworks and defence mechanisms, and 4 weeks of US sanctions have wiped out 3 years of cheapskating on Russian oil.

Those who believe the US is 'out' or whatever need a reality check. Last thing Modi wants bytheway. Only the heavily propagandized actually believe that a cunning politician like Modi would put all his eggs in a basket herded by Xi just because. Man is simply playing the field, as he should be, partially to gain leverage in the tariff negotiations against Washington. The buckos are once again letting their rabid anti- Americanism and emotional investment cloud their judgement. These people legit never learn. Negotiations are currently ongoing behind the scenes and Modi will sign that tariff document in a few months if not weeks and that will be that.


Picture below is a few days old. Prepare for the schizo-esque and immediate return of anti Indian shilling once that happens, the toll one has to pay for subscribing to this cartoonlishly simple worldview.

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expectation said:
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The 'mutual' part here is windowdressing, this simply is a deal solidifying Pakistani 'security guarantees' regarding military-for-hire readiness in exchange for big sums of that sweet Saudi oil money. As for any Pakistani national interests, the gluttonous and degenerated Saudi sloths obviously couldn't possibly care any less about theorically beefing up the Pakistani military in case the Indians start leveling ABs again. That's not what this deal is about at all.

This agreement is also a decade+ old under the table deal floating to the surface, although the why now question remains interesting. Pakistan and Saudi have been on excellent terms for decades, and the two have had secret deals regarding the sale of Pakistani nuclear technology to the Saudis for 15 years plus The scenario was straightforward: in case the ayatollahs in Iran would develop nuclear arms technology the Saudi monarchs would almost immediately ship in Pakistani technological blueprints+scientists and/or nuclear warheads. The ME equilibrium was not to turn against Saudi Arabia. However, after the 12 Day War that scenario has lost its relevance, Iran's not going to develop nuclear weapons, not now and not ever.

It's quite possible that this deal, which is a big one, is related to the deteriorating internal security situation in SA. The Saudis data analytics must have picked up on simmering and growing discontent amongst the clerical and military cadres. Possibly aided from within the royal family too, even though mouthy lower tier Saudi royals 'disappearing' is nothing new. The Saudi mullahs, despite the statist Madkhalism version of wahhabism they officially profess, have big issues with the current modernization policies of MBS. 7 years ago Saudi women were not allowed to drive cars and Morality Police (Mutawa) roamed the streets, anno 2025 girls go to gettorap concerts wearing croptops and looking for 'a date for the night'. Even though the above is still illegal the Saudi state is willfully turning a blind eye. Young people are becoming atheist in huge number and MBS doesn't care. The mullahs obviously do not like these developments at all. The military cadres on the other hand have a big issue with Saudi Arabias rapprochement attempts with Israel, as do they with a number of other policies.

So what does a increasingly paranoid ruler do in a time when critical whispers increase? Bring in mercenaries from abroad. MBS' personal security detail is allegedly already manned by Eric Prince's guys, now come the Pakistani because they don't ask questions when they have to round up or shoot potential troublemakers. Classic move!
 
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