Geopolitics Lounge

A new war in Central Africa is brewing. The Rwanda supported M23 movement continues taking ground with first hand witnesses stating that the Rwandese military is in fact active in Congo - backed up by a The Guardian report using satellite imagery on the many fresh graves in Rwanda's military cemeteries. Today Uganda's Chief of Staff is threatening to enter Congo.

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On the Congolese side there are contingents of Burundian, Tanzanian, Malawian and South African soldiers under the MONUSCO UN label in the Kivu area. Yesterday reports came in that Burundian forces had entered the South Kivu border area to halt the M23 advance on their own but were beaten back.
 
Congo produces the majority of the world's cobalt, this is a play for this ressource, with Israel backing Rwanda/Kagame/M23.







Congo has 100 million people, and one of the highest fertility rates in the world at 6.11 births/woman. The crisis there is going to have an impact on immigration to Europe.

Per usual wrong on all counts, Israeli businessmen have been running a significant chunk of the Congolese mines since the days of Mobutu. Jewish tycoons started moving into the Congo during the 60s and eventually became the main players during the 90 Congolese Civil War, spearheaded by Maurice Templesman who at that time was one of the main financiers of the US Democratic Party. It's all Chabadniks, big names are Oppenheimer, Mendell, Forrest, Blattner, Hertzov, Gertler, Steinmetz etc. Nearly all have dual citizenship, Canadian, US, Russian and more. Chabadniks get access to the Congolese mines in exchange for high-level Israeli defense and intelligence assistance, and they do business with everyone including China.

US has been getting more proactive about self sufficiency and fool-proofing the supply chains, especially those supply chains related to critical infrastructure. In short the Trump Administration wants to take over control over the source of many raw materials. Not controlling the supply change at the source became a concern during the Trump Administration 1.0 already.

Dan Gertler with current Congolese president Tsishekedi
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The most notable Israeli tycoon in Congo is Dan Gertler, Chabadnik billionaire. Owns the Emaxon Finance Corporation/ DiamondWorks, which owns/owned majority rights in many of the diamond, lithium and cobalt mines in Congo. The kosher Chabadnik gang owns a flurry of mining companies operating in Congo and routinely changes names and numbers. Some of the bigger companies are Dan Gertler International (DGI), Steinmetz Global Resources, International Diamond Industries, NIKANOR and Global Enterprises Corporate. To move money and goods Gertler especially uses a complex network of interconnected companies, often registered in offshore tax havens and involved in India, Russia, Belgium and the United States.


US wants and will take over the mines. Gertler got sanctioned in 2017 under the Trump Administration 1.0 (legal framework provided by Magnitsky Act), and Gertler and others were forced to sell a significant amount of the mines. Unexpectedly the Chinese grabbed the opportunity and starting ramping up operations after that. Biden enforced sanctions relief during his Administration. Most of these kosher tycoons still live part time in Congo, Gertler for one lives in the most expensive villa in Lumumbashi, Katanga state. His kosher meals get flown in from Kinshasa at 23 000 USD a flight. Gertler's personal rabbi Shlomo Bentolila is the highest Chabad representative in Central Africa and part of the Commitee of the Jewish Community in Kinsasha. He continues outstanding ties with Congo's political elite as does the Jewish community. When Bentolila son Binyamin had his bar mitzvah then President Joseph Kabila was present at the ceremony.

Congo due to its resources will play an important role in the US' geostrategy. Eric Prince's organization signed a deal with the Kinshasha government to acquire mining rights in return for security and low key military aid against the M23 movement. Clear sign that Tsishekedi is aligning with the US, and this formal agreement will be followed up by an official Congo - US mineral deal.

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If the US provokes a war with China in the South China Sea, Japan will flip to the Global South and BRICS. They have very strong pacifist tendencies and a movement that already protests for the removal of US bases.

Japan will flip anyway, given time, but a war will force the issue.

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If the US provokes a war with China in the South China Sea, Japan will flip to the Global South and BRICS. They have very strong pacifist tendencies and a movement that already protests for the removal of US bases.

Japan will flip anyway, given time, but a war will force the issue.

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There is a nationalist element in Japan that has resented being occupied for decades, not the Yakuzas and corporate types that are part of the local chapter of the deep state and pay lip service to Japanese nationalism, but older families and noble stock that are still influential and have some presence in the military and professional ranks. They see the current situation as an opportunity to build a wider coalition with Trump antagonizing the zaibatsu business conglomerate establishment with his tariffs and overly aggressive economic bullying.

This is a behavior pattern that is deeply engrained in Japanese culture, historically you had smaller fiefdoms paying tributes to larger regional daimyos (feudal lords), but when those daimyos pushed too far, the vassals would plot to switch allegiance to the rival daimyo, which in modern-day Japan's case is China.
 
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Spain doesn't want to be spied by the Five Eyes anymore.


The first western European country that is going to break the NATO/EU geopolitical mold is going to thrive economically, while the rest of western Europe sinks. In eastern Europe, Hungary has taken that initiative, dealing with Russia and collaboration with China (big BYD plant).

For a while I thought that leader in western Europe would be Italy under Meloni, but she turned out to be a compliant dud. Spain is the country that is taking the lead, the European auto industry is shifting from Germany to Spain, which is heavily invested in the EV industry, mostly with European brands, as well as Chinese battery giant CATL. Spain today produces about as many cars as France and Italy combined. Look for a big Chinese EV company to open shop in Spain soon.
 
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