This guy's takes on SE Asia has been meh so take it with a grain of salt
Regional History
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The Indo-Pacific Geopolitics Thread
- Thread starter LaAguilaNegra
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This guy's takes on SE Asia has been meh so take it with a grain of salt
Regional History
This is entirely on the erratic Hun Sen, who has initiated a string of escalating provocations and today got caught with his pants down flying recon drones over Thai territory with the aim of striking Thai border areas with heavy artillery and MLRS.
The Thai- Cambodian border dispute is longstanding yet today's escalation smells like a cover. The timeline and dynamics don't make sense. Ergo the Cambodian government is intentionally reactivating the front, but with ulterior motives. The Cambodians, for what it's worth, are dwarved by the Thai on each and any metric available. Most likely the current Cambodian chimp out is merely a stern warning and not meant to be the stepping stone to something bigger.
According to a personal friend and long term Thailand resident who spoke about this a month ago, this is related to a Thai crackdown on the Hun crime family's illicit assets and networks in Thailand. Below is an excerpt from the TG link he sent, today's Cambodian temper tantrum is simply the latest in a long list of escalations meant to make the Thai government back off and leave the Hun family's shady dealings alone
According to Mr. Sam Rainsy, the reason behind the actions by the Cambodian Warlord is that Thailand Government is crackdowning on CCP-affiliated Triads and Chinese Mafias, which, according to him, enrich and benefit the Cambodian leadership
Be aware that the Cambodians might very well have tacit Chinese support, keep an eye on the pro CCP media and their tone and narrative in the coming days.
The Thai- Cambodian border dispute is longstanding yet today's escalation smells like a cover. The timeline and dynamics don't make sense. Ergo the Cambodian government is intentionally reactivating the front, but with ulterior motives. The Cambodians, for what it's worth, are dwarved by the Thai on each and any metric available. Most likely the current Cambodian chimp out is merely a stern warning and not meant to be the stepping stone to something bigger.
According to a personal friend and long term Thailand resident who spoke about this a month ago, this is related to a Thai crackdown on the Hun crime family's illicit assets and networks in Thailand. Below is an excerpt from the TG link he sent, today's Cambodian temper tantrum is simply the latest in a long list of escalations meant to make the Thai government back off and leave the Hun family's shady dealings alone
According to Mr. Sam Rainsy, the reason behind the actions by the Cambodian Warlord is that Thailand Government is crackdowning on CCP-affiliated Triads and Chinese Mafias, which, according to him, enrich and benefit the Cambodian leadership
Be aware that the Cambodians might very well have tacit Chinese support, keep an eye on the pro CCP media and their tone and narrative in the coming days.
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The US has lifted sanctions on a significant number of Myanmar junta tied individuals. Talk is that this is the prelude to a US move aimed at swooping into Myanmar by engineering peacetalks between the junta and some of the bigger rebel movements, which will then result into US leverage and a subsequent US-Myanmar minerals deal. The Myanmar junta is currently close to China and Russia.
The US is especially interested in the raw earth's found in the KIA held territory in Northern Myanmar. Below is a map of current areas of control, the junta is still losing ground albeit at a lower pace. In the North a few ethnic Han Chinese rebel groups entered into an agreement with the junta under China's mediation, in the rest of the country the civil war rages on.
The US is especially interested in the raw earth's found in the KIA held territory in Northern Myanmar. Below is a map of current areas of control, the junta is still losing ground albeit at a lower pace. In the North a few ethnic Han Chinese rebel groups entered into an agreement with the junta under China's mediation, in the rest of the country the civil war rages on.
During the 2025 AUKMIN event UK Defence Minister John Healey stated that in the case of a Chinese aggression on Taiwan the UK+ Australia would intervene. This statement comes after the US has been going around its allies to get clear public stance on Taiwan.
Don't Australia and New Zealand commemorate the Anzacs and the Gallipoli folly annually? Shouldn't that at the very least instill some skepticism when it comes to Britain?
^In this complex civil war, the most difficult rebel group to deal with BY FAR is the Karen resistance, due to their predilection for demanding to speak to the managers.
The content of the secretive DC Asim Munir - Trump meeting is starting to emerge. Trump just flipped the Indian Subcontinent playing board on its head by cosying up with Pakistan and going after India. Some of it might be a feint& bargaining tactic to poke the Indians towards a more favorable trade deal and ending the Russian shadow fleet offloading discounted crude in India's ports, but the successful US advances to Pakistan are definitely of a more permanent character.
Yesterday Trump announced a trade deal with Pakistan, a deal that has extensions all over one of them being the US companies moving into jointly develop Pakistan's oil sector.
And then today Trump announced a blanket 25 percent tariff on India, with threats of additional tariffs. Reason stated is India's uncompromising stance on Russian oil imports with the tariff negotiations deadlocked coming a tacit second
Indian markets did not react well
In addition to that the US sanctioned 20 companies related to Iran's shadow fleet, seven of which are allegedly Indian. India operates most of Iran's Chabahar Port, a 1 billion USD project aimed at bypassing Pakistan and projecting Indian influence into Asia.
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