The China Thread

[Cooper]

Easier for the mainstream media to blame Russia, than tell you the truth.
I would expect someone who is on this forum to realise this.

Like I said, the continuing direct flights from Europe to Japan and South Korea (which are even further away than China) nullify this "Russia bad" excuse/explanation. The sad fact is, since 2020 most foreign tourists do not want to go mainland China anymore, even if it is visa free. They will however go further to Japan and Korea, even if the flight takes 2 to 4 hours more.

Do Japanese, Korean and western airlines also have to compete with Chinese/non-aligned airlines flying shorter and cheaper routes for the Europe to Tokyo/Seoul routes? I'm not sure that is the case.

So it may well be that fewer Europeans want to visit China because they are swayed by western propaganda, there is also less business being done between China and the West in terms of joint ventures as Chinese companies are taking over their domestic markets. The share of Chinese automakers of their domestic market has gone from less than 20% 10 years ago to 67% today and is still rising. Part of the reason that Japan's economy is reeling today is that they are getting crushed by Chinese brands in what was formerly their largest auto export market.

China - Flash report, Automotive sales volume, 2024 - MarkLines Automotive Industry Portal

China’s September vehicle production, sales volumes decrease 1.9% y/y, 1.7% y/y, respectively. On October 12, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) announced China’s vehicle production and sales results for September 2024. In Q3 2024,

www.marklines.com

So the notion that people aren't visiting China anymore because of "covid PTSD" makes no sense. It's not like Europe didn't go overboard with that either. In France, you weren't allowed to travel more than 10km from your home (the closest any western country ever got to a real 15min city control grid project), and you had to sign a pass in order to do your once a week food shopping trip. However the covid thing is a distant memory today, not a factor in tourist destinations.

It may well be that China's image has taken a hit in the West today, same as Russia. And much like with Russia, that bad PR is due to geopolitics and the average western tourist being pretty gullible.

 

[Caduceus]

Do Japanese, Korean and western airlines also have to compete with Chinese/non-aligned airlines flying shorter and cheaper routes for the Europe to Tokyo/Seoul routes? I'm not sure that is the case.

So it may well be that fewer Europeans want to visit China because they are swayed by western propaganda, there is also less business being done between China and the West in terms of joint ventures as Chinese companies are taking over their domestic markets. The share of Chinese automakers of their domestic market has gone from less than 20% 10 years ago to 67% today and is still rising. Part of the reason that Japan's economy is reeling today is that they are getting crushed by Chinese brands in what was formerly their largest auto export market.

China - Flash report, Automotive sales volume, 2024 - MarkLines Automotive Industry Portal

China’s September vehicle production, sales volumes decrease 1.9% y/y, 1.7% y/y, respectively. On October 12, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) announced China’s vehicle production and sales results for September 2024. In Q3 2024,

www.marklines.com

So the notion that people aren't visiting China anymore because of "covid PTSD" makes no sense. It's not like Europe didn't go overboard with that either. In France, you weren't allowed to travel more than 10km from your home (the closest any western country ever got to a real 15min city control grid project), and you had to sign a pass in order to do your once a week food shopping trip. However the covid thing is a distant memory today, not a factor in tourist destinations.

It may well be that China's image has taken a hit in the West today, same as Russia. And much like with Russia, that bad PR is due to geopolitics and the average western tourist being pretty gullible.

Yes, western airlines flying to Japan and Korea have to compete with Chinese and other 3rd country airlines that can fly shorter routes over Russia....yet somehow those western flight routes still are running despite much longer flight times and higher costs.

People don't want to visit China anymore because it's a very different place to before 2020 and almost impossible to use cash and credit cards like you could do before 2020. Western investors don't want to do business there anymore either. Added to this, official government travel advisories for tourists and business people warn against a host of complications that didn't exist before 2020. Examples see here:

Safety and security - China travel advice

FCDO travel advice for China. Includes safety and security, insurance, entry requirements and legal differences.

www.gov.uk

Safety and security - Hong Kong (SAR of China) travel advice

FCDO travel advice for Hong Kong. Includes safety and security, insurance, entry requirements and legal differences.

www.gov.uk

I was a regular visitor to China before 2020, and I enjoyed all my trips there, so I'm not a hater...but it just isn't fun to go there anymore, and most China expats and western business people have left the country for similar reasons.

Have you been to mainland China since 2020 ?

 

[expectation]

I'm assuming you speak Mandarin or Cantonese, (or both) so this makes things a lot easier for you.

The few foreign tourists who still visit mainland China have found installing the necessary Chinese smartphone payments apps a real problem because most of the interface and menus are in Chinese, and requires uploading both credit card, a passport, and other details. Also, very often once all the necessary details are entered it still doesn't work with foreign smartphones.

Since 2020, mainland China has made paying for basic goods and services more complicated for foreigners than any other country in the world.. even more difficult than North Korea, where you can still pay in cash, or change cash.


As for Hong Kong, many locals have moved abroad after various western countries offered Hong Kongers' a sort of political asylum and path to foreign citizenship.

The malls and shops are getting more empty every month, rich people are selling their homes, and rents are plummeting.
Even the "south china morning post" (which is a local Hong Kong newspaper) is admitting this.

re: Travel in China

There are guides out there that'll help but yeah I agree there's an investment of time/learning/prepare that a tourists would need to commit in order to enjoy China. Not much to say except that it weeds out tourists that are likely to disrespect the environment like backpackers in Bali and the tourists that I've interacted with are enthusiastic when it comes to China or domestic.

re: HK

Agreed - as I've said, the challenges are because HK'ers - are starting to have easier access to SZ & GBA (including Taobao being able to deliver to HK - Chinese Amazon) where their services + products better and cheaper for Chinese consumers while being stuck as a rent-seeker society. Retailers are unable to put in more money to improve their services or cut down costs to be more competitive due to high rent. It would be great if housing prices keeps going down to match with the rest of the Greater Bay Area and it looks like its slowly heading that way.

The amount of folks that have claimed BNO (British National Overseas) or migrate are not significant. Estimated at 11,737 households so if you assume 4 pax per household it would be ~47K. Its a drop in a bucket for a 7.5M city. In the previous wave, half of them moved back to Hong Kong from difficulty adjusting to the UK. These are not wealthy or educated households like most Chinese disporas and right now the economy in the UK/West is nothing like 90s/80s/70s for an average HK'er to thrive better than HK itself. The lady here I linked on twitter is an example of one.

btw - SCMP is a liberal newspaper so their headlines are skewed like this article where I reference the 11.7K household figure.

Hong Kong rents may plunge as ‘UK exodus drives vacancy rate to 18-year-high’

The bulk of the estimated 11,737 departing households will be heading to Britain to take advantage of a government scheme to facilitate citizenship for holders of the BN(O) passport, says Bloomberg report.

www.scmp.com

 

[expectation]

Adding to Cooper's point - the US State Department has placed China/Macau/Hong Kong on level 3 advisory. There's no reason to place China as level 3 except to be petty. They are really doing everything they can to discourage their citizens to go to China.

Other countries that are level 3 are Nicaragua, Niger, and Nigeria. These are countries that are undergoing terrorism and active civil war. For anyone that has visited or experience China/Hong Kong/Macau - does this make sense to be placed on the same level of advisory as those 3 countries?

China International Travel Information

China international travel information and Travel Advisory

travel.state.gov

 

[Caduceus]

Adding to Cooper's point - the US State Department has placed China/Macau/Hong Kong on level 3 advisory. There's no reason to place China as level 3 except to be petty. They are really doing everything they can to discourage their citizens to go to China.

Other countries that are level 3 are Nicaragua, Niger, and Nigeria. These are countries that are undergoing terrorism and active civil war. For anyone that has visited or experience China/Hong Kong/Macau - does this make sense to be placed on the same level of advisory as those 3 countries?

China International Travel Information

China international travel information and Travel Advisory

travel.state.gov

If you can be arrested in mainland China and Hong Kong for very silly reasons, and be prevented from leaving the country for even more silly reasons, then I would say yes.

Nicaragua, Niger, and Nigeria are on that list because of rampant criminality.. In China, you will be safe from criminality, but the authorities can detain you indefinitely without your embassy being able to help you, or instantly shut off you your means of paying for anything.

Like I said, I've been to both mainland China and Hong Kong many times before 2020 and enjoyed all my visits there, but I would not set foot in either of those places again now, because too much has changed for the worse.