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Situation in the Red Sea

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It_Is_My_Time said:
Saudi is just a puppet of Israel, just like the USA. They all know the truth; they know we are all tied together. It is up to our people to demand we stop this nonsense.
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Belated reply, but all the Gulf elites have been compromised due to their lavish and degenerate lifestyles in Israeli sting operations.

MBS was in Epstein's little black book. For the Emiratis and other Royals it must have been the (((Russian and Ukrainian))) hookers whom they defecate on and snort coke off.
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LaAguilaNegra said:
Iran's geopolitical strategy is straight up dumb.

As discussed here and in the Hamas-Israel thread, Israel has recently been escalating its strikes and ops against Iran. Every other week an IRGC general gets whacked, mass casualty event on Soleimani's remembrance day, the IRGC's top dog in Syria got eliminated, and more.

So Iran realized it had to make a move and promised revenge. They raised that red flag on top of Jamkaran Mosque in Qom. Theatrical, but people understood that retribution was on the way.

So what happened in the ~3 weeks since then?

- Hezbollah bombed a major radar installation in Israel. Zero casualty event yet lots of noise.
- The IRGC bombed Turkistan Islamic Party training camps in Idlib
- The IRGC whacked a Kurdish businessman and his family and tries to assassinate another one. Claims it also hit a Mossad base in Erbil.
- The IRGC bombs dirtpoor Pakistani border villages associated with Jaish al Udl, a Baluchi jihadist outfit tied to three letter agencies.

Results:

-Iraq- Iran and KRG-Iran are at the lowest level since 15 years. Arab League will convene today over these atttacks

-Pakistan- Iran relations, which were good, have nosedived. Pakistan just today bombed Iranian territory in return

-Most importantly, Israel is unfazed and clearly the Iranians are wary of directly targeting Israel

Is there an unseen 9D layer of chess here? How does getting close to a shooting war with previously friendly neighbors far away from Israel benefit the Gazan and Iranian cause?

Someone please explain.

Source on Pakistan's strikes in Iranian territory. The good news is that Pakistan didn't target IRGC infrastructure, but certain other Baluch groups instead - so this might very well be contained with a tit-for-tat. The Chinese are trying to glue this mess back together for what it's worth





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I think that Iran waited too long to respond to various provocations and overreacted.
The strikes in Syria and Iraq weren't bad - on the contrary, Iran showed the ability to launch both: complex drone (to distract US air defenses) and missile strikes against Erbil, and long range strikes against Idlib. However the strikes against targets in Pakistan were a travesty - I guess they wanted to demonstrate that there are no safe places for US proxies, but it wasn't worth it considering the risk to reward ratio.
Iran wanted to show its strength, but instead it looked like lashing out.
Now, with Iran and Pakistan reportedly restoring diplomatic ties, it looks like the worst is over.

Also, I think we might need a separate Iran thread, since those events weren't part of the Red Sea crisis.
 
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Thomas More said:
The Swift does look thoroughly messed up, but it's not that big, compared to a large container ship, oil tanker, or LNG tanker. Could the explosion that damaged the Swift do serious damage to one of those big ships, such as puncture the hull near the water line, or puncture the oil tank or LNG tank itself? Obviously blasting a hole into an LNG tank would be catastrophic, but even a water line hull puncture or an oil tank breach I think would leave a big ship operational.

I imagine it takes a substantial missile to sink a big ship. Can even a single Kinzhal missile sink a big ship like this? What about an aircraft carrier? I'd think it would actually take a lot of damage to sink one of the biggest ships. I doubt the Houthis have this capability. Perhaps an LNG tanker would be an exception.
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It may sound counterintuitive but commercial vessels are more resilient to those strikes than warships. The sheer size of oceanfaring vessels, and densly packed cargo make them something like the battleships of old.
Just look at them next to each other:
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The same drones that only scratched that bulk carrier could deliver some serious damage to a warship if they hit, for example, the main gun.
And the surface to ship missiles pose a real threat - the Noor missile that Houthis, most likely, used against the Swift is a 750kg spear, filled with explosives, flying at Mach 1. It's more than enough to breach a ship's hull - and again if it's a bulk carrier it will survive thanks to its cargo holds, but a warship migh end up on the bottom of the sea if the missile triggers a secondary explosion of its munitions.
 
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TruckDriver9 said:
I think that Iran waited too long to respond to various provocations and overreacted.
The strikes in Syria and Iraq weren't bad - on the contrary, Iran showed the ability to launch both: complex drone (to distract US air defenses) and missile strikes against Erbil, and long range strikes against Idlib. However the strikes against targets in Pakistan were a travesty - I guess they wanted to demonstrate that there are no safe places for US proxies, but it wasn't worth it considering the risk to reward ratio.
Iran wanted to show its strength, but instead it looked like lashing out.
Now, with Iran and Pakistan reportedly restoring diplomatic ties, it looks like the worst is over.

Also, I think we might need a separate Iran thread, since those events weren't part of the Red Sea crisis.
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The time to show off their missiles was years ago - the al Asad AB strike in 2020 revealed the advanced stage of their BM program already. Now it's time to use them on targets that matter. Iran is shooting missiles everywhere except towards Israel. That is not a good sign.

Does Israel care about a whacked businessman in Kurdistan and some evaporated turbans in Syria and Pakistan? Will it deter them from blowing up IRGC generals and scores of Iranian next time? If the answer is no, then the strikes weren't serious enough.

Accuracy and destructiveness of the Fateh 110 missile.



Also Iran has been showing off its missiles again. Usually that stuff is covered with tarps etc. This time it's a torpedo, Khuzestan is near the Persian Gulf. Is it a message that they are willing and able to target ships in the Persian Gulf area?

 
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LaAguilaNegra said:
The time to show off their penis missiles was years ago - the al Asad AB strike in 2020 revealed the advanced stage of their BM program already. Now it's time to use them on targets that matter. Iran is shooting missiles everywhere except towards Israel. That is not a good sign.

Does Israel care about a whacked businessman in Kurdistan and some evaporated turbans in Syria and Pakistan? Will it deter them from blowing up IRGC generals and scores of Iranian next time? If the answer is no, then the strikes weren't serious enough.

Accuracy and destructiveness of the Fateh 110 missile.



Also Iran has been showing off its missiles again. Usually that stuff is covered with tarps etc. This time it's a torpedo, Khuzestan is near the Persian Gulf. Is it a message that they are willing and able to target ships in the Persian Gulf area?

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I expect Iran to remain rather coy... They don't want an actual war... Them striking any ships would result in a serious escalation by all parties... And likely result in more than just Israel striking them.
 
LaAguilaNegra said:
New Israeli strike in Damascus, Syria. A three storey building was targeted and collapsed. Initial rumors say that a meeting attended by high level IRGC/ Islamic Jihad commanders was taking place when the missiles hit.



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This whole Israeli strategy makes no sense to me, unless they are trying to provoke a response.
A few guys here & there, even high level commanders, ultimately aren't going to make that big of a difference in the long run and will only harden a motivated enemy's resolve. The current strategy seems to be just irritating all of their neighborhood.
 
Northern Pilgrim said:
This whole Israeli strategy makes no sense to me, unless they are trying to provoke a response.
A few guys here & there, even high level commanders, ultimately aren't going to make that big of a difference in the long run and will only harden a motivated enemy's resolve. The current strategy seems to be just irritating all of their neighborhood.
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It might indeed be the Israeli strategy to light up Syria again. As for the strikes, they are a death by a thousand cuts. SAA and especially Axis are systematically having their military and operational capacities degraded in the Syrian theater. Obviously having the top leadership culled every so often is a blow in terms of losses.

The neighborhood loves this. None of them particularly like Iran and its creeping influence nor do their Western backers. They won't say it out loud, but many prefer Israel love Iran. Syria itself is too weak to have a say in any matters. The Gulf Arab play in the future might be to pull Syria away from Iran and back into the Arab camp (the Saudi-Syria detente and the re-admission of Syria into the Arab League).

Syria remains a book without an end. The current situation is neither frozen through multilateral agreements nor sustainable in the long run. There are many players waiting to make a move. The Turks have recently picked up their bombing campaign after they walked into an ambush in Iraq twice (25 KIA) and really want to get rid of the PKK/YPG, the Jordans are worried about the security situation on the border (smuggling, much of which is arms smuggling meant for the West Bank), the Saudis and Emiratis just want Iran out and Israel wants to get rid of Assad. The US' position is clear. Russia is trying to maintain the status quo and suppress the jihadists in Idlib.


Jordan bombing the Syrian border area two days ago


Sustained Turkish bombing campaign against PKK/YPG areas last week


 
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Israel wants the US to attack Iran, so of course many in the US want to attack Iran as well.

I think Israel is 100% trying to provoke Iran into retaliating in order to justify US intervention, thus giving the neocons their long awaited war and regime change in Iran.

Of course that could be the spark that ignites a war the likes of which the world has not seen for over 75 years, if ever. But I'll leave that speculation for another thread.
 
LaAguilaNegra said:
It might indeed be the Israeli strategy to light up Syria again. As for the strikes, they are a death by a thousand cuts. SAA and especially Axis are systematically having their military and operational capacities degraded in the Syrian theater. Obviously having the top leadership culled every so often is a blow in terms of losses.

The neighborhood loves this. None of them particularly like Iran and its creeping influence nor do their Western backers. They won't say it out loud, but many prefer Israel love Iran. Syria itself is too weak to have a say in any matters. The Gulf Arab play in the future might be to pull Syria away from Iran and back into the Arab camp (the Saudi-Syria detente and the re-admission of Syria into the Arab League).

Syria remains a book without an end. The current situation is neither frozen through multilateral agreements nor sustainable in the long run. There are many players waiting to make a move. The Turks have recently picked up their bombing campaign after they walked into an ambush in Iraq twice (25 KIA) and really want to get rid of the PKK/YPG, the Jordans are worried about the security situation on the border (smuggling, much of which is arms smuggling meant for the West Bank), the Saudis and Emiratis just want Iran out and Israel wants to get rid of Assad. The US' position is clear. Russia is trying to maintain the status quo and suppress the jihadists in Idlib.
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"The neighborhood" here are the current rulers of countries like Egypt, Jordan and the Gulf countries. Their people aren't on board.

The world is changing, we're at a critical conjunction. Rulers in countries like Iran, Russia or China play the long game, that's the main reason Israel is pressing on today, they know they won't have as much leeway in 5 or 7 years.
 
Northern Pilgrim said:
This whole Israeli strategy makes no sense to me, unless they are trying to provoke a response.
A few guys here & there, even high level commanders, ultimately aren't going to make that big of a difference in the long run and will only harden a motivated enemy's resolve. The current strategy seems to be just irritating all of their neighborhood.
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For targeting selection methodology check out the link and look at HVTs and HPTs... These are HVTs (high value targets) ..

An HVT is important to the threat commander (Irans Military) for success of their operations.

Continually taking out their leadership forces chaos in their decision making cycle and ensures that they are not able to formulate quick reaction plans as new commanders must be brought back to speed.


 
Cooper said:
"The neighborhood" here are the current rulers of countries like Egypt, Jordan and the Gulf countries. Their people aren't on board.

The world is changing, we're at a critical conjunction. Rulers in countries like Iran, Russia or China play the long game, that's the main reason Israel is pressing on today, they know they won't have as much leeway in 5 or 7 years.
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The only thing that is changing is Israel's modus operandus, and that is because of its surging Messianistic edge and global lacking pushback. All the 'wait five more years!' soundbites are just copes to be frank.

As for the pretense that Russia (and China) are somehow secretly plotting against Israel, it's a false understanding created by propaganda channels. Putin is a Zionist through and through - and he will simply use the dichotomy vis a vis the US to gain bonus points in the Islamic World without actually doing anything of substance. As for Quneitra, Russia's deal with Israel is to not have the Syrian border be turned into a second Lebanon. You are not going to see Russian jets having dogfights with Israeli jets on the border, which is what this channel suggests.

One of my favorites. Russia secretly disables Syrian AD systems as to not have them fire at Israeli planes. Bugging them and handing it over to the Israelis.

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^ Putin has already almost single-handedly scuttled Israel's Oded Yinon plan to dismantle and balkanize Syria, which would have happened without Russian intervention. So much for him being a zionist...

Once Russia takes care of business in Ukraine, they will help complete the job of the restauration of the Syrian state and roll back the territories under jihadi rule. That, once again, is why the Israelis are so gung ho on waging their local wars now, while Russia's hands are still tied and Chinese presence in the region is still relatively minor.

Putin is not anti-Israel, he does have an important domestic constituency, but to claim he's a zionist is ridiculous. Russia has had a non-belligerency agreement with Israel because they don't want to open a second front, and their positions in the regions can be cut off, but down the road once they solidify their presence in Syria, and once the US is out of Iraq, they will be in a much stronger position.

The main limitation in your line of thinking is that you aren't grasping the ongoing changes in geopolitics, this decade is a turning point. Those changes aren't happening overnight, but they will take place this decade.
 
Cooper said:
^ Putin has already almost single-handedly scuttled Israel's Oded Yinon plan to dismantle and balkanize Syria, which would have happened without Russian intervention. So much for him being a zionist...

Once Russia takes care of business in Ukraine, they will help complete the job of the restauration of the Syrian state and roll back the territories under jihadi rule. That, once again, is why the Israelis are so gung ho on waging their local wars now, while Russia's hands are still tied and Chinese presence in the region is still relatively minor.

Putin is not anti-Israel, he does have an important domestic constituency, but to claim he's a zionist is ridiculous. Russia has had a non-belligerency agreement with Israel because they don't want to open a second front, and their positions in the regions can be cut off, but down the road once they solidify their presence in Syria, and once the US is out of Iraq, they will be in a much stronger position.

The main limitation in your line of thinking is that you aren't grasping the ongoing changes in geopolitics, this decade is a turning point. Those changes aren't happening overnight, but they will take place this decade.
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I dont think putin is doing much more than playing lip service to his arab friends net net. I think that he is aligned with Assad personally, and I agree that they did significantly help his regime from being toppled.... but I dont know that they are willing to commit to doing anything that has significant negative repercussions against Israel.

Things are already challenging enough on the PR front for Russia with the Ukraine war. Being further tied into anti-Israeli action will be a net negative for Russia economically, even more than the current sanctions ect.

Russian Jews still have TONS of power there in Russia. While he's broken many of the oligarchical trends of the post Soviet Yeltsin era.... there is still a big Chabad influence and Russian Jews have significant sway.
 
Cooper said:
^ Putin has already almost single-handedly scuttled Israel's Oded Yinon plan to dismantle and balkanize Syria, which would have happened without Russian intervention. So much for him being a zionist...

Once Russia takes care of business in Ukraine, they will help complete the job of the restauration of the Syrian state and roll back the territories under jihadi rule. That, once again, is why the Israelis are so gung ho on waging their local wars now, while Russia's hands are still tied and Chinese presence in the region is still relatively minor.

Putin is not anti-Israel, he does have an important domestic constituency, but to claim he's a zionist is ridiculous. Russia has had a non-belligerency agreement with Israel because they don't want to open a second front, and their positions in the regions can be cut off, but down the road once they solidify their presence in Syria, and once the US is out of Iraq, they will be in a much stronger position.

The main limitation in your line of thinking is that you aren't grasping the ongoing changes in geopolitics, this decade is a turning point. Those changes aren't happening overnight, but they will take place this decade.
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Yes, because Syria is absolutely not balkanized right now. Not in a 15 years will they pose a military challenge to Israel - the only challange being the Hezbollah-ization of the border something which Russia is diligent not to let happen.

On the matter of Putin being a Zionist or not, I'll let the Israelis decide for themselves.

The prestigious 'Friend of Zion' award commissioned by the World Holocaust Forum and handed out by former Prime Minister Shimon Peres in 2020. The winner: Vladimir Putin/Russia.

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As for illogical thinking, you still don't get the actual play. The goal is to get the US OUT of the Middle East, OUT of Eurasia and BREAK UP NATO. That's the center piece. Has nothing to do with Israel, which for some reason always gets grouped with the US. Israel is good buddies with both Russia and China - which should be glaringly obvious.

Israel is designed to have very prominent role in the multipolar world order.
 
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^Get2Chop - Agreed about the Russians not wanting to rock the boat in Syria right now, they have enough on their plate.

The Russians play the long game, they waited for 6 years before intervening in Ukraine, preparing their economy for sanctions and ramping up their military tech and readiness. They have big plans for the region at the twilight of the Petrodollar era.

As to Russian Jews, there are 20-25 million muslims in Russia, vs 200k Jews. The Russians have put their muslims to good use, both in the Middle East and in Africa.
 
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