Situation in the Red Sea

[LaAguilaNegra]

Bomb went off outside of Greek office of the Israeli shipping company "Zim".

Bomb hits Greek office of Israeli shipping company Zim

Pre-dawn gas canister blast outside office block in apparent protest against Gaza offensive

www.tradewindsnews.com

Greece has a large and militant anarchist/Antifa scene. They quite regularly firebomb/pipebomb civilian targets/police stations, and also have repeatedly try to block NATO transports in the country etc.

Likely it was them.

US government designates Houthis as "global terrorists".

Ansarallah has been on the global terrorists list before. On January 19, 2020 (one day before Biden's inauguration) Trump/Pompeo put Ansarallah on the list. On February 16, 2021 the Biden Administration removed Ansarallah from the list.

www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2021/2/16/biden-admin-ends-trump-era-houthi-terrorist-designation

 

[Get2choppaaa]

Greece has a large and militant anarchist/Antifa scene. They quite regularly firebomb/pipebomb civilian targets/police stations, and also have repeatedly try to block NATO transports in the country etc.

Likely it was them.



Ansarallah has been on the global terrorists list before. On January 19, 2020 (one day before Biden's inauguration) Trump/Pompeo put Ansarallah on the list. On February 16, 2021 the Biden Administration removed Ansarallah from the list.

www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2021/2/16/biden-admin-ends-trump-era-houthi-terrorist-designation

Bident designated them a tier 2 terrorist now.

They have 30 days basically... To do whatever they want with moving money ECT.

It's a very soft action compared to the swift response they should be issuing.

 

[LaAguilaNegra]

New round of (air)strikes. Pro Iran TG channel Global Resistance Networks reports explosions in Saada, Sanaa, Hodeidah, Taiz, Al Bayda and Dhamar.

 

[LaAguilaNegra]

The IRGC has targeted an Iranian-Baluch jihadist rebel group on Pakistani soil. This comes after yesterday's IRGC missile attacks on Syrian and Iraqi territory.

At least two ballistic missiles were fired at a Pakistani border village which supposedly is a Jaish al Adl hub. Several civilians were killed. There are long standing rumours on the latter being a three letter agency tool. Baluchistan is a lawless area of Pakistan. Jaish al Adl has carried out plenty of attacks in Iran.

Pakistan and Iran used to have friendly relations. Not sure if that will continue after today. Some say the attack was coordinated and the Pakistani indignation is feigned.

Response from allegedly a Pakistani state person

Iran's geopolitical strategy is straight up dumb.

As discussed here and in the Hamas-Israel thread, Israel has recently been escalating its strikes and ops against Iran. Every other week an IRGC general gets whacked, mass casualty event on Soleimani's remembrance day, the IRGC's top dog in Syria got eliminated, and more.

So Iran realized it had to make a move and promised revenge. They raised that red flag on top of Jamkaran Mosque in Qom. Theatrical, but people understood that retribution was on the way.

So what happened in the ~3 weeks since then?

- Hezbollah bombed a major radar installation in Israel. Zero casualty event yet lots of noise.
- The IRGC bombed Turkistan Islamic Party training camps in Idlib
- The IRGC whacked a Kurdish businessman and his family and tries to assassinate another one. Claims it also hit a Mossad base in Erbil.
- The IRGC bombs dirtpoor Pakistani border villages associated with Jaish al Udl, a Baluchi jihadist outfit tied to three letter agencies.

Results:

-Iraq- Iran and KRG-Iran are at the lowest level since 15 years. Arab League will convene today over these atttacks

-Pakistan- Iran relations, which were good, have nosedived. Pakistan just today bombed Iranian territory in return

-Most importantly, Israel is unfazed and clearly the Iranians are wary of directly targeting Israel

Is there an unseen 9D layer of chess here? How does getting close to a shooting war with previously friendly neighbors far away from Israel benefit the Gazan and Iranian cause?

Someone please explain.

Source on Pakistan's strikes in Iranian territory. The good news is that Pakistan didn't target IRGC infrastructure, but certain other Baluch groups instead - so this might very well be contained with a tit-for-tat. The Chinese are trying to glue this mess back together for what it's worth

 

[Pointy Elbows]

The middle east will always be its own worst enemy. Houthis alienate shipping traffic by bombing ships at apparent random selection, chipping away worldwide empathy. Iranians picking a secondary/hinterlands fight with... Pakistan?! Muslim fratricide amidst a glaring Israel conflict? The 9D chess. Do they expect to draw the Eisenhauer into binocular range to watch the clown show? It's almost like Iran and her proxies want a war with anyone BUT Israel.

Little wonder they are so geopolitically frustrated. All such nonsense, knowing they are at conflict with a neighbor that is famous for sewing internal strife. Good luck to anyone thinking they will bring sense to this region - including Russia or China.

TLDR - jihadis gonna do jihad stuff. Wise men stay away.

 

[Blade Runner]

The middle east will always be its own worst enemy. Houthis alienate shipping traffic by bombing ships at apparent random selection, chipping away worldwide empathy. Iranians picking a secondary/hinterlands fight with... Pakistan?! Muslim fratricide amidst a glaring Israel conflict? The 9D chess. Do they expect to draw the Eisenhauer into binocular range to watch the clown show? It's almost like Iran and her proxies want a war with anyone BUT Israel.

Little wonder they are so geopolitically frustrated. All such nonsense, knowing they are at conflict with a neighbor that is famous for sewing internal strife. Good luck to anyone thinking they will bring sense to this region - including Russia or China.

TLDR - jihadis gonna do jihad stuff. Wise men stay away.

A lot of these places won't matter as much soon, given the depopulation schemes that are coming, or are additive. The big players will still be OK (China, Russia).

 

[It_Is_My_Time]

My guess is Iran and Pakistan struck a deal to bomb regions of each other’s countries, to remove pro-west terrorists but have to allow a response to save face with their civilians.

 

[TruckDriver9]

Details:

Genco bulker reportedly hit by Houthi drone in Gulf of Aden as US ups pressure

Supramax bulker owned by New York shipowner identified as target of latest attack

www.tradewindsnews.com

Photos emerge showing results of yesterday's drone strike on the US owned, Marshall Islands-flagged, "Genco Picardy". Photos were taken by the crew of the Indian warship INS "Visakhapatnam" which was the first one to respond.

The Indian warship INS Visakhapatnam responded to the Genco Picardy’s distress call and reached the stricken ship about two hours after the attack, to provide assistance.
The Genco Picardy’s crew of 22 include nine Indian citizens.
Explosive ordnance disposal specialists from the Visakhapatnam “thoroughly inspected and rendered safe” the damaged area before the ship continued its journey to the next port of call, the navy said.

Dramatic images show devastation being wrought on shipping from Houthis attacks

Genco bulker was the latest Western vessel to be targeted

www.tradewindsnews.com

 

[TruckDriver9]

New round of (air)strikes. Pro Iran TG channel Global Resistance Networks reports explosions in Saada, Sanaa, Hodeidah, Taiz, Al Bayda and Dhamar.

CENTCOM's statement.
Full text:

U.S. CENTCOM Strikes Houthi Terrorist Missile Launchers
In the context of ongoing multi-national efforts to protect freedom of navigation and prevent attacks on U.S. and partner maritime traffic in the Red Sea, on Jan. 17 at approximately 11:59 p.m. (Sanaa time), U.S. Central Command forces conducted strikes on 14 Iran-backed Houthi missiles that were loaded to be fired in Houthi controlled areas in Yemen. These missiles on launch rails presented an imminent threat to merchant vessels and U.S. Navy ships in the region and could have been fired at any time, prompting U.S. forces to exercise their inherent right and obligation to defend themselves. These strikes, along with other actions we have taken, will degrade the Houthi’s capabilities to continue their reckless attacks on international and commercial shipping in the Red Sea, the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, and the Gulf of Aden.
“The actions by the Iranian-backed Houthi terrorists continue to endanger international mariners and disrupt the commercial shipping lanes in the Southern Red Sea and adjacent waterways,” said General Michael Erik Kurilla, USCENTCOM Commander. "We will continue to take actions to protect the lives of innocent mariners and we will always protect our people.”

 

[Cooper]

My guess is Iran and Pakistan struck a deal to bomb regions of each other’s countries, to remove pro-west terrorists but have to allow a response to save face with their civilians.

Keep in mind that the current government of Pakistan is a puppet govt. that has been put in place after a semi-legal coup against former PM Imran Khan, so they will jump into the opportunity of being hostile to Iran to satisfy their overlords.

 

[Thomas More]

Photos emerge showing results of yesterday's drone strike on the US owned, Marshall Islands-flagged, "Genco Picardy". Photos were taken by the crew of the Indian warship INS "Visakhapatnam" which was the first one to respond.

Dramatic images show devastation being wrought on shipping from Houthis attacks

Genco bulker was the latest Western vessel to be targeted

www.tradewindsnews.com

The headline says "devastation", but it looks to me like these missiles are a nuisance only.

That blackened area had a decent little blast, and it probably would have killed someone in the blast radius. However, the structure looks intact, even in the small area that was damaged. I don't see hits like this sinking the ship, causing a huge fire, or damaging a large amount of cargo. It will probably cost $100k on up to repair it, but that's still minor.

Does Yemen has true shipbuster missiles?

 

[Aldebaran]

That blackened area had a decent little blast, and it probably would have killed someone in the blast radius. However, the structure looks intact, even in the small area that was damaged. I don't see hits like this sinking the ship, causing a huge fire, or damaging a large amount of cargo. It will probably cost $100k on up to repair it, but that's still minor.

Looks even less potent than the Hamas bottle rockets that Israel claims is a threat to their existence.

 

[TruckDriver9]

The headline says "devastation", but it looks to me like these missiles are a nuisance only.

Drone not missile, so only 50kg / 110lbs - if based on the Shahed-136 family.

That blackened area had a decent little blast, and it probably would have killed someone in the blast radius. However, the structure looks intact, even in the small area that was damaged. I don't see hits like this sinking the ship, causing a huge fire, or damaging a large amount of cargo. It will probably cost $100k on up to repair it, but that's still minor.

Bulk carriers like the "Genco Picardy" are not the best target - closed cargo holds under the deck. Container carriers are a better target - a drone can hit one of the containers stacked above the deck, damage/destroy its content and even start a fire which could spread.

Does Yemen has true shipbuster missiles?

It's reported that they have a wide selection of both, soviet era and modern Iranian-made, cuise and ballistic surface to ship missiles, but their effectiveness is dependant on the guidance systems which are, most likely, not so great.
If I remember correctly, Houthis never sunk a ship, but they were able to seriously damage more than a few - I think the "Swift" was hit the hardest:

Anatomy of the attack on "Swift" and a look into Houthi anti-ship capabilities - http://www.hisutton.com/HVS-2 Swift hit.html

---

Edit:
Also, we haven't seen any photos of merchant vessels, reportedly, hit by missiles in the Red Sea. Only the Indian Navy, operating in the Indian Ocean/Gulf of Aden, publishes photos/videos.

 

[Get2choppaaa]

Drone not missile, so only 50kg / 110lbs - if based on the Shahed-136 family.


Bulk carriers like the "Genco Picardy" are not the best target - closed cargo holds under the deck. Container carriers are a better target - a drone can hit one of the containers stacked above the deck, damage/destroy its content and even start a fire which could spread.


It's reported that they have a wide selection of both, soviet era and modern Iranian-made, cuise and ballistic surface to ship missiles, but their effectiveness is dependant on the guidance systems which are, most likely, not so great.
If I remember correctly, Houthis never sunk a ship, but they were able to seriously damage more than a few - I think the "Swift" was hit the hardest:

Anatomy of the attack on "Swift" and a look into Houthi anti-ship capabilities - http://www.hisutton.com/HVS-2 Swift hit.html

---

Edit:
Also, we haven't seen any photos of merchant vessels, reportedly, hit by missiles in the Red Sea. Only the Indian Navy, operating in the Indian Ocean/Gulf of Aden, publishes photos/videos.

Was in the AO when this happened.

They claimed to have hit other ships but I don't think thats true. But the Swift was absolutely jacked up.

 

[Thomas More]

Was in the AO when this happened.

They claimed to have hit other ships but I don't think thats true. But the Swift was absolutely jacked up.

The Swift does look thoroughly messed up, but it's not that big, compared to a large container ship, oil tanker, or LNG tanker. Could the explosion that damaged the Swift do serious damage to one of those big ships, such as puncture the hull near the water line, or puncture the oil tank or LNG tank itself? Obviously blasting a hole into an LNG tank would be catastrophic, but even a water line hull puncture or an oil tank breach I think would leave a big ship operational.

I imagine it takes a substantial missile to sink a big ship. Can even a single Kinzhal missile sink a big ship like this? What about an aircraft carrier? I'd think it would actually take a lot of damage to sink one of the biggest ships. I doubt the Houthis have this capability. Perhaps an LNG tanker would be an exception.

 

[Aldebaran]

I imagine it takes a substantial missile to sink a big ship. Can even a single Kinzhal missile sink a big ship like this? What about an aircraft carrier? I'd think it would actually take a lot of damage to sink one of the biggest ships. I doubt the Houthis have this capability. Perhaps an LNG tanker would be an exception.

Modern ships are surprisingly hard to sink. Israel threw everything they had at the USS Liberty, and still it managed to hobble back to port.

 

[Get2choppaaa]

The Swift does look thoroughly messed up, but it's not that big, compared to a large container ship, oil tanker, or LNG tanker. Could the explosion that damaged the Swift do serious damage to one of those big ships, such as puncture the hull near the water line, or puncture the oil tank or LNG tank itself? Obviously blasting a hole into an LNG tank would be catastrophic, but even a water line hull puncture or an oil tank breach I think would leave a big ship operational.

I imagine it takes a substantial missile to sink a big ship. Can even a single Kinzhal missile sink a big ship like this? What about an aircraft carrier? I'd think it would actually take a lot of damage to sink one of the biggest ships. I doubt the Houthis have this capability. Perhaps an LNG tanker would be an exception.

The bigger issue with the Aircraft Carrier is the damage to the runway. If aircarft are unable to take off or land then they're a pretty large target.

Sinking them from above is not likely.

Torpedos on the other hand.... Thats how you sink a ship.

 

[TruckDriver9]

1. CENTCOM reports additional strikes against the Houthis.
Full text

U.S. CENTCOM Destroys Houthi Terrorists' Anti-Ship Missiles
As part of ongoing multi-national efforts to protect freedom of navigation and prevent attacks on maritime vessels in the Red Sea, on Jan. 18 U.S. Central Command forces conducted strikes on two Houthi anti-ship missiles that were aimed into the Southern Red Sea and were prepared to launch. U.S. forces identified the missiles in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen at approximately 3:40 p.m. (Sanaa time) and determined they were an imminent threat to merchant vessels and U.S. Navy ships in the region. U.S. forces subsequently struck and destroyed the missiles in self-defense.

2. Several drones were spotted in the Gulf of Aden.
Full text

2 separate attacks in Gulf of Aden in past hour
4x Drones spotted by Ship 1 and observed 1 UAV crashing in water IVO the ship.
Ship 2 observed the likely 3 remaining drones as reported by ship 1. Ship 2 had reported 1 UAV crash and explode 30 meters from the ship.
2 remaining UAVS still in flight likely expect 1 or 2 more attacks and or interceptions by warships.

3. Drone activity was followed by a failed missile attack on a US owned, Marshall Islands-flagged, tanker: "Chem Ranger".
Full text

Third Houthi Terrorists Attack on Commercial Shipping Vessel in Three Days
On Jan. 18 at approximately 9 p.m. (Sanaa time), Iranian-backed Houthi terrorists launched two anti-ship ballistic missiles at M/V Chem Ranger, a Marshall Island-flagged, U.S.-Owned, Greek-operated tanker ship. The crew observed the missiles impact the water near the ship. There were no reported injuries or damage to the ship. The ship has continued underway.

 

[LaAguilaNegra]

Keep in mind that the current government of Pakistan is a puppet govt. that has been put in place after a semi-legal coup against former PM Imran Khan, so they will jump into the opportunity of being hostile to Iran to satisfy their overlords.

After yesterday's strikes Jaish al Udl promised revenge within 24 hours, and since then they have attacked an IRGC border post, Kasak village and liquidated an IRGC colonel. The Iranian authorities claim 3-5 of theirs were killed, Jaish al Udl says they eliminated 12-15 Iranians.

Especially the latter is interesting, because such operations require a lot of
intel and preparation. The colonel was traveling by car with two others and got ambushed in the countryside. Such detailed knowledge of whereabouts and travel routes is an obvious giveaway of foreign state intelligence being handed down.

 

[LaAguilaNegra]

My guess is Iran and Pakistan struck a deal to bomb regions of each other’s countries, to remove pro-west terrorists but have to allow a response to save face with their civilians.

Pakistan has been harbouring Jaish al Udl/Jundallah for decades, and Iran has provided a safe heaven for the Baluch Liberation Army (those are the ones that often target Chinese engineers) for a long time too. If Pakistan and Iran wanted to help each other out on these matters they could have brought law and order to their respective parts of Baluchistan a long time ago. But aside from a brief stint in the Sadam era (who funded and supported Baluchi separatism) they haven't. They simply don't want to - just like the Pakistanis tolerate all sorts of jihadist groups on their territory even though the jihadis routinely chimp out and blow things up (they consider them foreign policy assets in India and Afghanistan). The reality is that the Pakistani and Iranians use these outfits as bargaining chips against each other - because, like @PointyElbows explained, this how these corners of the world function even though it doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

There weren't any AD systems active because Pakistan suppressed Iran's Bahman radar systems using EW, and saturated the operational area by test firing. On top of that Iranian early detection systems are poor in performance - the result of the decades long sanction regime. The new Bahman radar system is Iranian produced and couldn't pick up on any of the recent incoming Israeli drone and airstrikes Iranian soil either.

On January 28, 2023 for instance the Israelis targeted Isfahan and other places with suicide drones. Israeli loitering ammunitions traveled close to a thousand kilometer unnoticed and hit a drone production facility in Isfahan. The Iranians immediately tried to play it down for obvious reasons. Similarly explosions occurred in Tabriz, Karaj and other places. The drones were either launched from Iraqi Kurdistan or Azerbaijan. Iranian AD systems did not engage any of the incoming projectiles.

Was Israel behind drone attack on Iran military installation?

Iranian foreign minister criticised the drone attack as ‘cowardly’ and aimed at creating ‘insecurity’.

www.aljazeera.com

Also that Megatron Twitter channel is again misrepresenting the general consensus to stitch up a narrative. Pakistan acted on a whim's notice and had the objective of establishing a deterrent, not taking out BLA operatives.

Out of the 9 people dead 4 were children and 3 were women.