I would guess that if there is a big shortage, that would drive the price up, but if the full reserve is there (or if there is more than the official amount, as some have speculated), then the price would go down from current levels.
Precious Metals
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Gathering a few points from the 3 videos in @Caduceus post above: the 1971 visit was no audit (they only visited one of 150+ vaults), there had not been a previous visit to Ft. Knox since the 1930s, the 1971 visit was done under much speculation that the vaults had been cleaned out (similar to today). I have to wonder, has a true audit been performed since the 1930s, or ever? Understanding this is not the type of thing you want to review monthly (the less it is handled, the better), one would think an every-decade or so audit would do the trick.
Even if all the inventoried USG gold is present, how does that account for the multiple derivative tools in the financial market? Particularly the tools against the holdings at the COMEX and LBMA, outside of Ft. Knox?
Even if all the inventoried USG gold is present, how does that account for the multiple derivative tools in the financial market? Particularly the tools against the holdings at the COMEX and LBMA, outside of Ft. Knox?
The immediate effect of any audit at fort knox that results in any big discrepancies on the officially declared holdings, will be on the value of the US Dollar, not on the price of gold (although that will of course follow soon after). So the audit will hurt or help the US economy more than anything else.
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The press visit documented in those videos I posted was in 1974, not 1971.
But yes, there was no real audit in 1974...they just opened 1 door to 1 tiny room, took some pictures and videos, and then were quickly kicked out.
I have no idea if a real count and test of the entire holdings at fort knox has ever been done after they were put there in the mid 1930s . A seriously done audit would take many months, possibly up to a year....the problem isn't just moving and counting the thousands of gold bars, it's also doing tests to see if its real gold, rather than some other metal. The current treasury secretary recently said an audit is done every year, but that's just based on paper documents....no bars are actually moved and counted and tested.
Finally, Fort Knox only holds roughly HALF of the US gold reserves...the rest is stored in other vaults in West Point and Denver.
(The gold bars in New York belong are owned by about 36 different foreign nations who keep it there for "safekeeping")
If Trump and Musk are really serious about an audit of all the government gold stored in the USA, they would have all 4 locations audited simultaneously to avoid shell games with the bars.
See here for the other 3 locations where gold holdings are stored in the USA:
West Point Mint - Wikipedia
Denver Mint - Wikipedia
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Building - Wikipedia
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Dude, same! I offered him several gold coins similar to a barter system trade, and he turned them down for cash. Each coin has now appreciated up some 45% since then. Lol. It was a boomer, of course
Back to the do you accept gold? topic..
I'm adapting this to imperial units and US$ for the Americans..
Apparently a US$100 bill is 0.0043" thick
Not as thick as a US$10 bill :
www.chroniclecollectibles.com
Not sure I noticed that difference in thickness last time I was in the US.
30 of the US$100 bills would measure 0.129" thick which is 1/8 " and 6 1/8 " wide by 2 5/8" high
A 24 carat (not carrot) one ounce American buffalo coin is 1 5/16 " wide and 1/8 " thick
The US$100 bill weighs 0.04 ounces so 30 of them is 1.2 ounces.
Point is, the gold is more compact and lighter than the same value of US$100 bills.
What happens to American money if you forget to take it out of your pocket and goes through the washing machine..
I'm adapting this to imperial units and US$ for the Americans..
Apparently a US$100 bill is 0.0043" thick
Not as thick as a US$10 bill :
How Thick Is A 100-Dollar Bill? An In-Depth Look - Chronicle Collectibles
How thick is a 100-dollar bill? The thickness of money, especially banknotes, is something that many people are curious about but may not think to measure
www.chroniclecollectibles.com
Not sure I noticed that difference in thickness last time I was in the US.
30 of the US$100 bills would measure 0.129" thick which is 1/8 " and 6 1/8 " wide by 2 5/8" high
A 24 carat (not carrot) one ounce American buffalo coin is 1 5/16 " wide and 1/8 " thick
The US$100 bill weighs 0.04 ounces so 30 of them is 1.2 ounces.
Point is, the gold is more compact and lighter than the same value of US$100 bills.
What happens to American money if you forget to take it out of your pocket and goes through the washing machine..
The paper used for $US is fairly durable, and it comes through the washer and dryer cycle intact. Naturally people avoid doing this if possible, but whenever I've left cash in my pocket by accident, it came through fine. The color doesn't really fade or anything.Back to the do you accept gold? topic..
I'm adapting this to imperial units and US$ for the Americans..
Apparently a US$100 bill is 0.0043" thick
Not as thick as a US$10 bill :
How Thick Is A 100-Dollar Bill? An In-Depth Look - Chronicle Collectibles
How thick is a 100-dollar bill? The thickness of money, especially banknotes, is something that many people are curious about but may not think to measure
Not sure I noticed that difference in thickness last time I was in the US.
30 of the US$100 bills would measure 0.129" thick which is 1/8 " and 6 1/8 " wide by 2 5/8" high
A 24 carat (not carrot) one ounce American buffalo coin is 1 5/16 " wide and 1/8 " thick
The US$100 bill weighs 0.04 ounces so 30 of them is 1.2 ounces.
Point is, the gold is more compact and lighter than the same value of US$100 bills.
What happens to American money if you forget to take it out of your pocket and goes through the washing machine..
Surprised nobody has commented on here recently: Gold, all time highs! How about it. I wouldn't be surprised to see Gold go to 5K during Trump's term... If I had to guess, America first agenda and our currency being the world reserve currency means that foreign markets are going to get into gold just as fast as they possibly can. Dollar Milkshake Theory by Brent Johnson lays this out well. Exciting times!
I was going to write something but I was too busy rubbing my hands together like a Jew
Significant recent theft of art, a solid gold (18 carat) functioning toilet called "America" which weighed 100kg :
en.wikipedia.org
satirical participatory art since in a lot of its life, it was in a bathroom where you could just use it, even at one point in a bathroom that Winston Churchill used to use. Worth millions of course just in metal value.
Footage of the theft :
www.dailymail.co.uk
toilet thieves :
www.bbc.com
America (Cattelan) - Wikipedia
Footage of the theft :
CCTV shows moment thieves roll £4.75 million gold toilet out of palace | Daily Mail Online
Police have released CCTV footage of the moment thieves rolled a £4.75 million gold toilet away from Blenheim Palace and bundled it into the back of a car after stealing it in an
Gold toilet: Two men guilty over £4.8m Blenheim Palace heist
Five thieves were seen on CCTV stealing the fully-functional toilet from Blenheim Palace in 2019.
www.bbc.com
US gold at $3122 tonite. Shangai exchange has been trading even higher. Quite a long term gain for Gold.
Is this a flight to safety? As if the important people know of impending hazard and want their money locked into a hard asset.
Is Trump precipitating a ME conflict for the purpose of driving gold up? So as to revalue the US gold reserves at a higher value and boost the asset side of the balance sheet? Since election, gold has flowed back to various US accounts, allegedly because of tariffs. Don't ask me to explain. Still, gold has returned to various US interests (bank vaults, ETF holdings, or comex, if not Ft. Knox proper). Not sure how "safe" these places are, but the phenomenon is present. Or is it simply overpriced now?
No way is gold is overpriced....if anything the price is being suppressed, even at 3100 dollars an ounce.
Also I think the tariffs Trump is imposing worldwide are making gold go upwards much more than any current or future conflicts in the middle east.
I have been mainly thinking that the price at about US$3000 per ounce is crazy for what is just a metal. It's not diamonds and was recently so much cheaper. I have been mainly convinced that if one of the two wars would definitively end, it would drip back down to perhaps $2200. So was thinking I'd wait for that before going and getting some more of it, since Trump is consistently pushing peace in Ukraine.
Then, in another thread here I posted some stuff about German hyperinflation -
In one of the references it says :
There is an old thread here on that topic -
So with that scary history in mind, maybe it is worth getting more gold even at this elevated price.
Earlier today I had a similar thought to this -
Then, in another thread here I posted some stuff about German hyperinflation -
1919 was the Treaty of Versaille, 1929 was a serious stockmarket crash on Wall Street.
1929 to 1939 was the Great Depression.
Hitler was elected chancellor in 1933.
A gap in my knowledge and possibly this thread are the details of what the London and New York bankers, and Rothschild's specifically did in the 1920s after the Treaty of Versaille to corner Germany in such a way that WW2 was provoked.
en.wikipedia.org
1929 to 1939 was the Great Depression.
Hitler was elected chancellor in 1933.
A gap in my knowledge and possibly this thread are the details of what the London and New York bankers, and Rothschild's specifically did in the 1920s after the Treaty of Versaille to corner Germany in such a way that WW2 was provoked.
Hyperinflation in the Weimar Republic - Wikipedia
That is about 100 years ago, just under.
There is an old thread here on that topic -
So with that scary history in mind, maybe it is worth getting more gold even at this elevated price.
Earlier today I had a similar thought to this -
Wouldn't call them all important although there is some sort of collective intelligence, just as how the bookmakers predict elections better than the survey groups. There has been a sense for a long time that things in the economy cannot go on, and some form of hard reset is needed and inevitable. This would have been worse without Trump, but maybe there is something fatal in the economy that no-one is talking about openly which can't really be helped at this point.
I have been mainly thinking that the price at about US$3000 per ounce is crazy for what is just a metal. It's not diamonds and was recently so much cheaper. I have been mainly convinced that if one of the two wars would definitively end, it would drip back down to perhaps $2200. So was thinking I'd wait for that before going and getting some more of it, since Trump is consistently pushing peace in Ukraine.
Then, in another thread here I posted some stuff about German hyperinflation -
In one of the references it says :1919 was the Treaty of Versaille, 1929 was a serious stockmarket crash on Wall Street.
1929 to 1939 was the Great Depression.
Hitler was elected chancellor in 1933.
A gap in my knowledge and possibly this thread are the details of what the London and New York bankers, and Rothschild's specifically did in the 1920s after the Treaty of Versaille to corner Germany in such a way that WW2 was provoked.
Hyperinflation in the Weimar Republic - Wikipedia
That is about 100 years ago, just under.
There is an old thread here on that topic -
So with that scary history in mind, maybe it is worth getting more gold even at this elevated price.
Earlier today I had a similar thought to this -
Wouldn't call them all important although there is some sort of collective intelligence, just as how the bookmakers predict elections better than the survey groups. There has been a sense for a long time that things in the economy cannot go on, and some form of hard reset is needed and inevitable. This would have been worse without Trump, but maybe there is something fatal in the economy that no-one is talking about openly which can't really be helped at this point.
Gold is still UNDERpriced at the moment.
Consider that the official value stamped on all gold coins weighing around 30 grams (called double eagles) made from 1849 to 1933 was only 20 US Dollars. The coin could be bought or sold for 20 dollars all the way from 1849 to 1933. That's 84 years at the same exact price.
Think about that.....84 YEARS without a penny in inflation or price increases.
So should everything that currently costs 3000 dollars go back down to 20 dollars again ??
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I've noticed this about the legal tender price on bullion coins versus the metal value.
As an example, the one ounce Vienna Philharmonic gold coin, which has "100 Euro" written on it in the 2025 iteration but is currently going to set you back €2793
1 Ounce Gold Vienna Philharmonic Coin
The Vienna Philharmonic coin in one-ounce gold (Troy ounce) is the king of investment coins and the best-selling size.
www.muenzeoesterreich.at
I think this legally means that if something crazy happened like gold price in 2025 dropped to €50, they would still be obliged to pay you €100. It is however impossible that it would do that right now, how on earth.. Like if some gigantic deposit was found someone on the planet and suddenly it just wasn't so rare anymore.
This inflation calculator suggests that $1 in 1900 is worth $37.82 in 2025
The price of a lot of things 100 years ago are discussed here :
Well, that is a factor of 26x not so different to the 37x of the inflation calculator.
Coffee like gold is a traded commodity. There's a few mentions of it here -
Loading…
247wallst.com
$0.25 in 1800
$0.17 in 1825
$0.80 in 1850
$0.25 in 1875
$0.15 in 1900
$0.47 in 1925
Not sure if that is robusta or arabica etc
In 2025 right now the coffee "spot price" is $3.39 per pound although I think if you went into a supermarket you'd pay $10 for that amount. If you go with $6, it's a 40 factor increase from 1900.
So between diner meals and coffee prices there are factors between 26x and 40x.
If you applied the diner index and coffee index to $20 for an ounce of gold you would have $800
Gold hit a low of $1066 in late 2015 although in 2001 it cost $261
It is positively going through the roof right now, can't see how it could be underpriced
It will either go back down once the wars and uncertainty end, or maybe this is a sign that the end is nigh, at least economically, and yes, some important people fear that and are buying up before everything crashes. Maybe it is the fear of Iran wars or Taiwan wars which haven't happened yet and everyone knows that a number of (((players))) are itching for those wars.
Anybody has opinions about platinum?
I remember years ago being more expensive than gold. Now gold is 3X more expensive.
Platinum is a rarer mineral and has it industrial uses.
I was thinking about buying 1oz coins. They look amazing and I wonder if they might hold its value or even increase due to demand (like silver and gold).
I remember years ago being more expensive than gold. Now gold is 3X more expensive.
Platinum is a rarer mineral and has it industrial uses.
I was thinking about buying 1oz coins. They look amazing and I wonder if they might hold its value or even increase due to demand (like silver and gold).
Platinum will move more like silver in my view due to the industrial use.
Gold has "monetary" demand as most of the buying is done by central banks to stockpile as reserve asset and by people and investors who use it as a storer of value/risk off asset.
Silver has some of that investor demand, but platinum does not have much investor demand.
Platinum will likely move along with the broader commodities market as a result of inflation.
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I've noticed this about the legal tender price on bullion coins versus the metal value.
As an example, the one ounce Vienna Philharmonic gold coin, which has "100 Euro" written on it in the 2025 iteration but is currently going to set you back €2793
1 Ounce Gold Vienna Philharmonic Coin
The Vienna Philharmonic coin in one-ounce gold (Troy ounce) is the king of investment coins and the best-selling size.
I think this legally means that if something crazy happened like gold price in 2025 dropped to €50, they would still be obliged to pay you €100. It is however impossible that it would do that right now, how on earth.. Like if some gigantic deposit was found someone on the planet and suddenly it just wasn't so rare anymore.
This inflation calculator suggests that $1 in 1900 is worth $37.82 in 2025
The price of a lot of things 100 years ago are discussed here :
While you can expect to drop about $20-$30 bucks on a meal for two at a diner nowadays, the same meals would've cost about 70 cents ($18.23) in 1920. So not much has changed there.
Well, that is a factor of 26x not so different to the 37x of the inflation calculator.
Coffee like gold is a traded commodity. There's a few mentions of it here -
One pound of coffee cost:Loading…
247wallst.com
$0.25 in 1800
$0.17 in 1825
$0.80 in 1850
$0.25 in 1875
$0.15 in 1900
$0.47 in 1925
Not sure if that is robusta or arabica etc
In 2025 right now the coffee "spot price" is $3.39 per pound although I think if you went into a supermarket you'd pay $10 for that amount. If you go with $6, it's a 40 factor increase from 1900.
So between diner meals and coffee prices there are factors between 26x and 40x.
If you applied the diner index and coffee index to $20 for an ounce of gold you would have $800
Gold hit a low of $1066 in late 2015 although in 2001 it cost $261
It is positively going through the roof right now, can't see how it could be underpriced
It will either go back down once the wars and uncertainty end, or maybe this is a sign that the end is nigh, at least economically, and yes, some important people fear that and are buying up before everything crashes. Maybe it is the fear of Iran wars or Taiwan wars which haven't happened yet and everyone knows that a number of (((players))) are itching for those wars.
Coffee and cocoa as well as other crops grown in the developing world are subject to their own dynamic, there has been a movement by coffee and cocoa producers to start processing their own crops and climb up the value chain, exporting higher quality finished goods. In the past a farmer from Ghana or Cote d'Ivoire might have gotten 10 or 20 cents for the cocoa in a bar that sells for $3.50, now they are starting to alter that dynamic. Also, the Chinese are starting to consume more coffee and buying up large quantities of Brazilian coffee and coffee futures (mostly outside of the commodities markets through bilateral deals).