Lounge of The Russian-Ukrainian War

[Australia Sucks]

European Reality Check: Without The US There Is No NATO And No Ukraine | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

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Good luck EU coming up with 860B. Basically another trillion for EU's yearly budget. They will go broke trying to make up that shortfall while keeping their enormous bloated welfare state alive, they would have to axe the welfare.

Firstly

Well according to a quick google search Russia is currently spending $500 million to $1 billion per day on the war in Ukraine. That is roughly $180 - $365 billion per year. The upper end seems more realistic to me. $365 billion is massive for an economy with only $2 trillion of GDP. That is 18.5% of Russian GDP.

$1.3 trillion compared to Europe's GDP of $20 trillion that is 6.5% of EU GDP and and even lower percentage of NATO (excluding U.S.A.) GDP given that NATO also includes some non EU countries. In terms of NATO countries excluding USA $1.3 trillion is probably something like 4% (maybe even less) of their GDP. So are telling me spending 4% of GDP will bankrupt the NATO alliance but Russia spending 18.5% of their GDP will not bankrupt them? And lets remember the EU has access to a much bigger and more liquid bond market than Russia and can much more easily raise debt. No to mention taxes are much higher as a percentage of GDP in the EU than they are in Russia. I am just not seeing how the NATO alliance will go bankrupt before Russia does. It just does not add up. And that is not even taking into account what Magoo correctly pointed out that you are conflating total military spend with spending on the Ukraine war.

Samseau you are living in fantasy land if you think the NATO alliance will go bankrupt before the Russian government goes bankrupt.

 

[Samseau]

Well according to a quick google search Russia is currently spending $500 million to $1 billion per day on the war in Ukraine. That is roughly $180 - $365 billion per year. The upper end seems more realistic to me. $365 billion is massive for an economy with only $2 trillion of GDP. That is 18.5% of Russian GDP.

These numbers aren't accurate because Russia's debt to GDP is not growing by magnitudes as this would suggest. Furthermore we have no idea how much aid China and NK are giving Russia, so it's unclear how much Russia itself is spending.

 

[Australia Sucks]

These numbers aren't accurate because Russia's debt to GDP is not growing by magnitudes as this would suggest. Furthermore we have no idea how much aid China and NK are giving Russia, so it's unclear how much Russia itself is spending.

I just don't see how the NATO alliance excluding USA which has an economy 12 - 15 times the size of Russia will get bankrupted before Russia is. There is just no realistic case to be made for that. And you believe Russia's official debt to GDP numbers?

How much help can North Korea give they are a tiny economy and a basket case country lol. North Korea's GDP is only around $30 billion dollars. Just to put that in perspective JP Morgan make $58 billion of profit in 2024.

And yeah China might be helping Russia but the Chinese economy is very weak now and they are currently focused on rolling out a program of record stimulus spending to prop up their own weak economy so any help they give Russia will likely be fairly small in the grand scheme of things.

According to a statement made by Trump around $400 - $500 billion has been spent by NATO on the Ukraine war:
President Trump has claimed: "We've spent more than $300bn and Europe has spent about $100bn - that's a big difference"

How much has the US given to Ukraine?

President Trump has repeatedly claimed that the US has given over $300bn to Ukraine, but he is incorrect.

www.bbc.com

That is $400 billion compared to NATO (excluding USA) GDP of $28 - $30 trillion. That is only 1.3% of NATO GDP but somehow that is going to bankrupt them? And that is $400 billion spent over the 3 years of the war not in a single year.

 

[Cooper]

I just don't see how the NATO alliance excluding USA which has an economy 12 - 15 times the size of Russia will get bankrupted before Russia is. There is just no realistic case to be made for that. And you believe Russia's official debt to GDP numbers?

How much help can North Korea give they are a tiny economy and a basket case country lol. North Korea's GDP is only around $30 billion dollars. Just to put that in perspective JP Morgan make $58 billion of profit in 2024.

And yeah China might be helping Russia but the Chinese economy is very weak now and they are currently focused on rolling out a program of record stimulus spending to prop up their own weak economy so any help they give Russia will likely be fairly small in the grand scheme of things.

You're confusing nominal GDP with PPP-based GDP. Here's an example that puts things in context: a 155mm shell costs $4,000 to produce in the West, but only around $500 in Russia, due to much lower input costs, existing capacity/low fixed costs and economies to scale.

Also, for EU leading economies like France, Italy, UK, the debt to GDP ratio is near or above 100%, but only 15% in Russia. These countries already are on the brink.

Furthermore, Russia has ressources up the wazoo and income from their exports.

Finally, while the EU is de-industrializing, Russia is re-industrializing, their economy is becoming sounder. They are making their own cars, own Coca-Cola, own tractors, own legacy microchips, own passenger jets soon, and ironically enough, this only happened because of the war. So in actuality the war is strengthening the Russian economy, especially when you add to this that their oligarchs and wealthy expats can no longer park their money in Switzerland or London, it has instead been put to productive ends at home.

 

[Droughtmeat]

How many people refused the vax ?
Something like less than 3%.....those are the only people who realise whats going on now.

Unfortunately, at least it my experience, there isn't too much correlation between those two groups of critically thinking people.

A lot of anti vaxxers I know are hardcore left wingers and I've know seen many who support Russia but followed all of the covid guidelines.

 

[Australia Sucks]

You're confusing nominal GDP with PPP-based GDP. Here's an example that puts things in context: a 155mm shell costs $4,000 to produce in the West, but only around $500 in Russia, due to much lower input costs, existing capacity/low fixed costs and economies to scale.

Also, for EU leading economies like France, Italy, UK, the debt to GDP ratio is near or above 100%, but only 15% in Russia. These countries already are on the brink.

Furthermore, Russia has ressources up the wazoo and income from their exports.

Finally, while the EU is de-industrializing, Russia is re-industrializing, their economy is becoming sounder. They are making their own cars, own Coca-Cola, own tractors, own legacy microchips, own passenger jets soon, and ironically enough, this only happened because of the war. So in actuality the war is strengthening the Russian economy, especially when you add to this that their oligarchs and wealthy expats can no longer park their money in Switzerland or London, it has instead been put to productive ends at home.

I understand perfectly well the difference between PPP and nominal GDP. The thing is PPP has huge limitations because the prices of so many things are international. Sure if you are a peasant living on a farm in rural Russia you can live for a fraction of the cost of a rural American. But if you are an upper class Russian living in the ritzy neighborhoods of Moscow your cost of living will be similar to an upper income American as the Mercedez Benz you buy will cost the same, your overseas vacations will cost the same, your Rolex watch will cost the same, etc. Not to mention most commodities such as oil, coffee, silver, copper etc have the same international price regardless of where you are in the world.

Russia has a low debt to GDP ratio because the interest rates are so high in Russia that they cannot support a high debt load. 10 year government bonds in Russia currently yield 15.5%. That is not a sign of a healthy economy when your bond yields are so high. For example the current yield on 10 year German government bonds is 2.4%. So that means if Germany for example has a $100 of debt they pay $2.40 in interest while Russia will pay $2.33 in interest on its $15 of debt. So you can actually Russia and the EU countries are spending similar percentages of GDP on debt servicing despite the massive difference in debt to GDP levels.

You are essentially trying to make the argument that an economy 1/15th the size of NATO can out-finance NATO. Its just absurd on its face. You really need to show compelling numerical proof to make such an argument as the burden of proof certainly is not on my side of the fence. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof which you have yet to provide.

 

[Aldebaran]

I just don't see how the NATO alliance excluding USA which has an economy 12 - 15 times the size of Russia will get bankrupted before Russia is. There is just no realistic case to be made for that. And you believe Russia's official debt to GDP numbers?

Size in itself isn't relevant. Economy doesn't work that way.

A large and mismanaged company will go bankrupt long before a small and well-managed one.

 

[Australia Sucks]

By the way I am not saying that Russia cannot win the war. All I am saying is if Russia wins the war it will not be because the NATO alliance ran out of money to finance the war while Russia was able to keep financing its war effort.

 

[Australia Sucks]

Size in itself isn't relevant. Economy doesn't work that way.

A large and mismanaged company will go bankrupt long before a small and well-managed one.

It does work that way because you are comparing total dollars available for spending. Its like saying which company can spend more dollars on research and development a startup with $10 million dollars of start up funding or a multi billion dollar corporation? Who can spend more on advertising?

 

[Northern Pilgrim]

Anyone who thinks the EU can spend their way to 'victory' should go back and read all 83 pages of this thread, or better yet, go find the original RVF thread and read it first.

Of course, the war hasn't transpired the way many pro-RU posters believed, but it certainly hasn't gone the way of team UA/Nato. As with most things, the truth is probably somewhere in the middle...
The Trump-Zelensky meeting (and subsequent cessation of aid) is one of the biggest recent developments, and does not bode well for UA.

 

[magoo]

Anyone who thinks the EU can spend their way to 'victory' should go back and read all 83 pages of this thread, or better yet, go find the original RVF thread and read it first.

Of course, the war hasn't transpired the way many pro-RU posters believed, but it certainly hasn't gone the way of team UA/Nato. As with most things, the truth is probably somewhere in the middle...
The Trump-Zelensky meeting (and subsequent cessation of aid) is one of the biggest recent developments, and does not bode well for UA.

I hope EU loses big time. And Russia keeps and manages all of that beautiful country called Ukraine for themselves.
It’s no surprise Putin doesn’t mind Ukraine entering EU. Who wants to manage that failed shithole state?

Hopefully Ukraine never enters EU. There’s already enough gipsies from Romania and Bulgaria. No need for more slavs.

How can Germany bankroll another failed Eastern Europe state inside EU is beyond me.

How can you win against a nuclear power? The only way to win is through internal sabotage.

Nobody can win against a nuclear power through normal warfare. Because winning means mutual assured total destruction. If a nuclear power feels their survival is threatened they will unleash atomic bombs against their enemy.

There’s a thing called nuclear bombs. Which maybe should be taken into consideration in considerarion of any conflict with Russia.

Not tanks or any of those retarded MSM.

Russia when they decided to enter Ukraine with their own soldiers it wasn’t a bluff. They are playing soldiers with ukranians cause of international perception. They don’t need to. They can bomb Ukraine to rubles in less than 30mnts.

In a direct conflict between nuclear powers nobody wins. Cause there’s nobody left.

EU or US will never win in Ukraine. Cause Russia is not funding a third party. It’s Russian soldiers who are fighting.

Russia called the US bluff and raised placing their own soldiers in Ukraine. US already folded. And hopefully EU will fold fast. Cause there’s no way to win against a nuclear power. Unless through sabotage.

My guess is EU is just trying to land this plane of shit Americans created the best they can.

If China invades Taiwan with Chinese troops it will be the same shit. You can’t enter into a direct conflict with a nuclear power. Unless they give Taiwan an atomic bomb. Taiwan will go also.

US and the west won in the past not through military but through a superior culture which everybody wanted to belong to. Beautiful women. Industry etc. Nobody wants DEI Jews fags trans feminist whores and pedos culture.

The western gay way of living is being rejected. And US is trying to force it. It won’t work. Western culture lost its Christianity. And with it it’s appeal. The west is not a model anymore. It still has some economic appeal. But it’s not Michael Jordan Chicago Bulls anymore. You sanction Russia. They don’t care. Who cares about gays and trans? Man beating woman in sports?!? Who wants that for their own country?

 

[Caduceus]

 

[Australia Sucks]

Anyone who thinks the EU can spend their way to 'victory' should go back and read all 83 pages of this thread, or better yet, go find the original RVF thread and read it first.

That is a straw man argument. Nobody is saying that the EU can spend their way to victory. All guys like me are saying is that if Russia wins the war it won't be because NATO is going bankrupt or running out of money, it will be for other reasons.

 

[magoo]

Reminder: France Is Actually a Terrifying Nuclear Power

France was the fourth country to join the so-called “Nuclear Club,” and at the height of the Cold War maintained its own nuclear triad of land-based missiles, nuclear-armed bombers and ballistic missile submarines. Today, France’s sea-based nuclear deterrent is the home of most of its nuclear...

nationalinterest.org

Reminder: France Is Actually a Terrifying Nuclear Power​

 

[dicknixon72]

One other factor to take into account regarding a Unified European Force is that European member nation militaries lack a lot of the specialized units and equipment it relies on the United States for, namely, C3 and overwatch, ELINT, SEAD (Suppression of Enemy Air Defense) capabilities i.e. Wild Weasel, medium/heavy bombers, offensive rotary wing, aerial refueling, and general airlift logistics. Instead, it has a lot of point defense fighters, 'multirole' aircraft that are namely air-to-air fighters, and small transports.

You can argue to quality and capability of what remains of these from the Russian Aerospace Forces, but they have them while continental Europe largely does not possess them at all.

 

[Cooper]

I understand perfectly well the difference between PPP and nominal GDP. The thing is PPP has huge limitations because the prices of so many things are international. Sure if you are a peasant living on a farm in rural Russia you can live for a fraction of the cost of a rural American. But if you are an upper class Russian living in the ritzy neighborhoods of Moscow your cost of living will be similar to an upper income American as the Mercedez Benz you buy will cost the same, your overseas vacations will cost the same, your Rolex watch will cost the same, etc. Not to mention most commodities such as oil, coffee, silver, copper etc have the same international price regardless of where you are in the world.

Russia is largely an autarkic economy, it produces most of what it needs, except for marginal products like coffee, tea or Rolexes. If the price of eggs rises to $8 per dozen in the US, the price in Russia will still remain at $1.50 per. Same with domestic energy costs.

You can't ignore this basic aspect of the Russian economy, which is the reason why the sanctions haven't worked. Not only are they self-sufficient in most commodities, but they are also one of the largest exporters of oil, gas, wheat, aluminum etc.

 

[Droughtmeat]

Russia when they decided to enter Ukraine with their own soldiers it wasn’t a bluff. They are playing soldiers with ukranians cause of international perception. They don’t need to. They can bomb Ukraine to rubles in less than 30mnts.

I also has to do with the fact that about 18% of Ukraine's population are ethnic Russians. Putin, or any Russian leader, can't justify obliterating millions Russians. They've decided to go the slow grind route and have obviously lost many many soldiers in the process, but it still pales in comparison the number of Russians that would be lost, if they pursued a more vicious and destructive military strategy.

 

[Northern Pilgrim]

That is a straw man argument. Nobody is saying that the EU can spend their way to victory. All guys like me are saying is that if Russia wins the war it won't be because NATO is going bankrupt or running out of money, it will be for other reasons.

Good to know you aren't saying they can, though it seems like Euro leaders are saying that.
What do you mean by "if Russia wins"? They are currently winning and unless something unexpected is thrown into the calculus, they will speed up the winning over the coming weeks and months until a peace deal is signed.
Russia has been upping their industrial output for the last 3 years, but all we hear from EU is how they are running out of stuff to send Ukraine.

 

[It_Is_My_Time]

Several of the posters in this thread, along with myself, have been following and/or discussing this stuff since the SMO kicked off just over 3 years ago. I obviously can't speak for the others, but seeing folks jump into the discussion now without any context is downright hilarious. Whether RU achieves their stated goals of the SMO, or whether the US collects anything on its 'investment' remains to be seen and is up for debate. In war, nothing is for certain of course, but the notion that Europe can come in at the last second and help Zelenski pull off an upset is just insane.

Since Feb 2022 there has been varying levels of involvement by different interest groups, but no one (that I have seen) has disputed that the US is doing the bulk of the heavy lifting in terms of supplying UA with weapons, Intel support and technical advice.
Of course, various European countries have been donating equipment and some have even hosted Ukrainian soldiers for training, all the while complaining about "running out of reserves" with which to fight Russia.

Russia's supposed unwilling conscript army, has now chewed through 3 actual conscript Ukrainian armies. Do these clowns running Europe intend to make it 4? The rate at which Ukrainians are being kidnapped and thrown to the front lines is accelerating, and now it is openly reported that elite groups and foreign brigades are firing on retreating UA troops. If these EU "leaders" do send troops, untrained in the current warfare methods and lacking experience, they are going to learn the hard way. Just look at the NK troops sent to Kursk, they weren't prepared for the fight on the front lines, even though they had some prior training.

This latest episode with Zelenski just exposes how out of touch with reality so many world "leaders" are and just because they know a lot about multiple subjects doesn't make them an expert on this war in particular. Blind support and blind hatred have a way of clouding one's vision.

So true. When you have "leaders" who don't have to go to the front-lines, ever, and many of which have never served, it makes it a lot easier to send someone else's kid off to die for your political power. These old women, demanding war with Putin, are really getting on my last nerves. It is the height of evil, satanic at its core, and I hope more good people start to call them out for the demonic behavior they are displaying. Demanding young men go fight in a war, while they sit comfortably at home and feel good about themselves. It is time for these cowards to learn that sending other men off to die is evil and they will be socially ostracized for it.

 

[Northern Pilgrim]

Reminder: France Is Actually a Terrifying Nuclear Power

France was the fourth country to join the so-called “Nuclear Club,” and at the height of the Cold War maintained its own nuclear triad of land-based missiles, nuclear-armed bombers and ballistic missile submarines. Today, France’s sea-based nuclear deterrent is the home of most of its nuclear...

nationalinterest.org

Reminder: France Is Actually a Terrifying Nuclear Power​

True. Although France didn't nuke Russia yet for all of the French soldiers killed in Ukraine thus far, so why will they just because they shift to an 'out in the open' war?