Lounge of The Russian-Ukrainian War

[mountainaire]

Yep.


Armstrong covered the plan in an interview last week where he said that Ukraine isn't supposed to win. They were just supposed to soften Russia up so that NATO can "finish the job".


My assessment is that this didn't work because it dramatically depleted both the USA and Europe's equipment, and it wasn't able to be replaced. The problem with complex plans is that a lot more things can go wrong, and few things are more complicated than the production of modern military equipment. For a lot of reasons (e.g. the skills loss) Western production can't be scaled up rapidly and even in the best case scenario the entire NATO sphere can make a fraction of what Russia and China do.

I'd wager that they have only hardened Russia, instead of softening them up. If that was "the plan", it seems to have blown up in their faces. This war has forced Russia to get off the couch and run 7 miles every morning so to speak, like a champion boxer. Their officers and senior enlisted are now experienced, their equipment manufacturing has been has been put into overdrive, and they now know what works and what doesn't on a modern battlefield against a well equipped adversary.

Contrast that with our military fighting poorly equipped "insurgents" for the last couple decades...

 

[Rax Moscow]

History legends keeps getting better with his videos. Entertaining, knowledgeable, professional, and unbiased.

Southfront reports another day of 1,000+ losses for Ukraine. 1,000 deaths a day means their army is gone in a year.

Military Situation On Ukrainian Frontlines On May 6, 2024 (Map Update)

At least 14 Ukrainian UAVs and seven shells of the Czech-made Vampire MLRS were destroyed in the Belgorod region; Ukrainian...

southfront.press

The war is getting so stupid from the Ukrainian perspective, that it is now possible for laypersons from across the globe to casually predict the next outcome: Ukraine is going to lose Chasiv Yar. It will be another meat grinder where tens of thousands of Ukrainians will get blown up in order to delay Russia taking the city by a couple of weeks. There will be massive PR stunts by Ukraine attempting to attack civilians in Crimea, which of course the Russians are prepared for.

The fact that a layperson who cannot speak Russian, has never been to the ukraine, and has no military experience, can casually make such a prediction, which we will all see come true in the coming days, shows how idiotic the Ukie strategy is.

Here's a nice post by a former American military officer:

Why The World Should Recognize Great Men

I suppose now that everything is out in the open it’s ok to go ahead and call it like it is. We are seeing things that have long been hidden from us, I guess because our time is so short now …

folkpotpourri.com

Vladimir Putin is a great man. He has repeatedly shown his devotion to his people and his nation. No western leader can make that boast.
Mr. Putin is 100 percent Russian. Unlike western leaders, he claims no allegiance to any other nation. He has made a great effort to not only keep the Russian Christian church safe and secure, but to ensure that the people of his country and of other countries know where he stands. Western leaders fall over each other in their efforts to show fealty to their foreign shekelmasters

If the people in Washington DC push Mr. Putin into a nuclear war, I won’t hold it against him for having to destroy this country. He has tried everything under the sun to get the insane lunatics to back off, but they are hell bent on pushing him into it. It would be nice though, if he, and the Russian people knew there are a lot of us in America who detest the behavior of those who purport to be our leaders.

Nevertheless, Vladimir Putin is a great man. We can only wish for someone like him here in the land of the free.

 

[TruckDriver9]

Ukraine will no longer recognize Putin as the legitimate president of Russia, because the last presidential election in Russia wasn't "free and fair". Which is hilarious considering that Zelensky simply cancelled elections in ukraine.

Foreign Ministry calls on allies not to recognize Putin as Russia's legitimate president

Ukraine's Foreign Ministry urged on May 6 other countries and international organizations not to recognize the results of Russia's most recent presidential election, as well as Vladimir Putin's legitimacy ahead of the inauguration.

www.yahoo.com

 

[Joska_Bacsi]

Things are heating up, with Western officials increasing talking about sending troops. France has already sent in the French Foreign Legion, and a report says that some have already been killed near Slavyansk.

Medvedev has issued a warning of retaliatory strikes outside of Ukraine, a 'world catastrophe'.

The Russian Armed Forces are to start exercises with non-strategic nuclear weapons.

A highly dubious article in my opinion.The deployment of the 3eme REI based in French Guyana is highly unlikely.The functions of the Legion as indicated in the articles would in my opinion suggest deployment of units from the 1er REC out of Orange ,2eme REI out of Nimes, 2eme REG out of Aubagne and maybe,Rep men out of Calvi.
The Legion would have no units conversant with the SCALP missile system.This would be down to regular army units.

 

[Joska_Bacsi]

A highly dubious article in my opinion.The deployment of the 3eme REI based in French Guyana is highly unlikely.The functions of the Legion as indicated in the articles would in my opinion suggest deployment of units from the 1er REC out of Orange ,2eme REI out of Nimes, 2eme REG out of Aubagne and maybe,Rep men out of Calvi.
The Legion would have no units conversant with the SCALP missile system.This would be down to regular army units.

Ps.
It is also highly unlikely that the Legion would release any members to go and fight 'for their country".Desertion is more highly likely.It is quite easy for legionnaires to desert with their kit/uniform.Given this possible scenario,it would be quite feasible for deserters to be killed in Ukraine wearing French Foreign Legion uniform.This does not indicate legimate deployment by the French govt of French Units.

 

[Cooper]

There were 50+ French soldiers and legionnaires who were killed in one strike earlier this year. I don't think that the dispatch of another hundred or two is unexpected here, especially given Macron's earlier declarations and grandstanding.

 

[Pointy Elbows]

The shelling of Belgorad and constant attempts at attacking Crimea from the Black Sea coast mean that Russia will have to take Kharkov and Odessa, both culturally Russian cities, and that is the bottom line.

Sometimes I wonder if Russia's slow-roll is as much for Putin's domestic PR effort. "See guys, they are intent on destroying all ethnic Russian enclaves. They keep fighting inch by inch to keep this war in ethnic Russian lands - even when they have no hope of re-securing those lands. Do you not yet see - we are in a fight against a committed enemy that hates us for who we are? We can't change who we are, so we better settle in for the long haul. Crimea is taken. Luhansk and Donetsk are taken. On to Kharkiv, on to Odessa, on to all of Kherson." He's going to want a buffer beyond those places, but that's for another time.

On a similar note, the modern developments in ISR platforms are really taking the up-side out of "big arrow" offensives. The last thing anyone wants to do is mass a large force in the open, exposing the force to the wondrous platforms of suicide drones and recon drones and all modern overhead collection. Even in Ukraine's rough state, they can still kill a lot of Russians in the open. Were it not so, we'd have seen a massive push by now. If Russia does a big maneuver battle, that'll be after they've tested and feel secure that Ukraine's ISR/Strike capabilities are exhausted. Until that day, the economy of force battle continues. Tech is really forcing changes to "art of war" ideas. US doctrine better catch up quick.

 

[Joska_Bacsi]

There were 50+ French soldiers and legionnaires who were killed in one strike earlier this year. I don't think that the dispatch of another hundred or two is unexpected here, especially given Macron's earlier declarations and grandstanding.

Once again,I highly doubt the deployment of 'legionnaires' to Ukraine.The Legion Etrangere are the French govt' go to disposable,no one gives a damn,no credit ever given where due,first line of general deployment to general shitholes and wars of inconvenience ,ie Afghanistan,the Russia/Ukraine conflict is something else.
Whilst their deployment to foreign hotspots(read cesspits) of former French colonial power in Africa are well documented,they are representative of official French power projection wherein the French civilian population do not really give a damn about the death here or there of a 'foreigner' serving France.The oddity here is that whilst no one really cares about Legion losses,they are highly regarded and respected by the general population.
Anyway.Getting back to Ukraine,the French army all wear the same uniform with the only difference being head attire and/or unit identification patches.
My tuppence worth is that these '50 + French soldiers and legionnaires' are or were French military advisers,French special forces and/or deserters and hobby nutzis of which there are many in Ukraine.

At the end of the day,the Legion Etrangere are still a regular French army unit and cannot be seen or deployed as anything else.All else is Beau Geste and Sgt.Bilko romanticism.

 

[Samseau]

My tuppence worth is that these '50 + French soldiers and legionnaires' are or were French military advisers,French special forces and/or deserters and hobby nutzis of which there are many in Ukraine.

Why might they be disguised, in order to avoid international fallout?

Additionally, Macron is bitter about losing Africa to the Ruskies, why wouldn't he want to hurt Russia in Ukraine?

 

[TruckDriver9]

Putin dismissed Sergei Shoigu from the position of Minister of Defense - he will serve as the secretary of the Security Council. The new head of MoD will be, pending approval, Andrey Belousov - a civilian with economics background.

 

[Cooper]

Shoigu's deputy minister of defense, Timur Ivanov, was recently arrested for corruption/treason. Ivanov's wife is Israeli, he might have been compromised there... Some pundits are speculating that Putin and the Russian deep state are cleaning house with the firings of Ivanov and Shoigu.

 

[Cooper]

 

[Cooper]

Some high quality trolling from the Russians here.

This would have also made a great entry on the "wall" thread in the old forum...

 

[Samseau]

Putin dismissed Sergei Shoigu from the position of Minister of Defense - he will serve as the secretary of the Security Council. The new head of MoD will be, pending approval, Andrey Belousov - a civilian with economics background.

This simply confirms the stalemate reality of this war.

Appointing an econ guy to head the military is to, ensure, for decades:

1. Keep costs down
2. Keep the army supplied
3. Keep the country rich through military conquest

Since Putin is recognizing that this war will continue for decades, the most important thing is economics. Not strategy or tactics. This is going to be a war of attrition, and making the army as lean and economically competitive as possible will be paramount. That is the only way to sustain military operations against the "West" for the next 25 years or more, much more, without going bankrupt.

All the predictions of this war ending soon have been wrong, and will continue to be wrong. Putin himself admits the stalemate reality with an econ minister appointment to the head of the Ministry of Defense.

Is there anyone left not on team stalemate? Does anyone seriously believe this war ends before 2040?

 

[TruckDriver9]

This simply confirms the stalemate reality of this war.

Appointing an econ guy to head the military is to, ensure, for decades:

1. Keep costs down
2. Keep the army supplied
3. Keep the country rich through military conquest

Since Putin is recognizing that this war will continue for decades, the most important thing is economics. Not strategy or tactics. This is going to be a war of attrition, and making the army as lean and economically competitive as possible will be paramount. That is the only way to sustain military operations against the "West" for the next 25 years or more, much more, without going bankrupt.

From what I've read, his main task will be to integrate Russian MIC with the rest of the economy, invite private enterprises, foster innovations, and reduce the number of foreign components in Russian military products.
I don't expect him to stay in charge of MoD for many years, I think he'll conduct an audit, cut the: fraud, waste, abuse, streamline the most promising projects and then step down.

All the predictions of this war ending soon have been wrong, and will continue to be wrong. Putin himself admits the stalemate reality with an econ minister appointment to the head of the Ministry of Defense.

Is there anyone left not on team stalemate? Does anyone seriously believe this war ends before 2040?

Unless there's a military coup in ukraine, I don't think the war will end anytime soon. Even if the ukrainian army was to collapse, and Russians were to march unoppsed all the way to the Kiev, the west won't allow it to end. We'll evacuate the ukrainian government west, (if necessary we can even set up a new one in exile: Zaluzhny is in London already) and even send our own troops to hold the Dnieper line while another batch of ukrainians is trained in the west. I'm not a fan o WW2 analogies, but when I think about the future of this war, I'm reminded of how Polish government and the Polish army were rebuilt in the west after the September campaign.

---

Anyway, Belousov memes are already a thing.

 

[Ember]

Is there anyone left not on team stalemate? Does anyone seriously believe this war ends before 2040?

Me. I believe a collapse will happen this year, perhaps even as early as summer. The stalemate argument has never been true. I'm surprised you have been taken in by this MSM narrative. The Ukies has been losing up to ten times that of the Russians. Completely unsustainable, and it is now coming to a head.

The Russian are advancing all across the fronts, and the Ukies are so short of reserves that they are having to send small groups from across all units to protect Kharkiv from the new advances. It is not enough, and they are in total panic. Budanov has gone there to steel the nerves of his commanders and stop the retreats.

 

[Samseau]

I'm surprised you have been taken in by this MSM narrative.

The MSM narrative is that Russia would collapse. The haters of America's narrative has been that Ukraine/America would collapse. I'm neither because both are wrong.

No one was pro-stalemate from the onset of this war because very few read history or understand war. Ukraine's collapse won't mean anything and will simply mark the real start of the war against Russia, aka WW3.

 

[TruckDriver9]

Me. I believe a collapse will happen this year, perhaps even as early as summer. The stalemate argument has never been true. I'm surprised you have been taken in by this MSM narrative. The Ukies has been losing up to ten times that of the Russians. Completely unsustainable, and it is now coming to a head.

The Russian are advancing all across the fronts, and the Ukies are so short of reserves that they are having to send small groups from across all units to protect Kharkiv from the new advances. It is not enough, and they are in total panic. Budanov has gone there to steel the nerves of his commanders and stop the retreats.

I can imagine a scenario, in which western troops are deployed to hold the Dnieper, or at least the westernmost parts of ukraine (Lvov, Odessa), while the ukrainian government is established in exile in Europe, and a new ukrainian army is formed from the ukranians living in the west.

 

[Ember]

The MSM narrative is that Russia would collapse.

There have been many MSM narratives, and since the defeat of the hyped Ukrainian offensive, one of the most persistent has been that of a stalemate.

 

[Ember]

I can imagine a scenario, in which western troops are deployed to hold the Dnieper, or at least the westernmost parts of ukraine (Lvov, Odessa), while the ukrainian government is established in exile in Europe, and a new ukrainian army is formed from the ukranians living in the west.

Russia may let them take Lvov region, by agreement, but I don't believe they will be allowed anywhere near the Dnieper. A border will not work there, it has to be much further West.