Didn't say that they will completely run out of ammo - I said, that with the current industrial output it's impossible for ukraine to accumulate ammunition for any future offensive operations (definitely not in a 3-5 month timeframe). The daily ammo consumption varies greatly between defense and offense - last year during the summer of the great ukrainian counteroffensive, Russia was using around 2k artillery shells/day (not counting other munitions such as mortar shells, rocket artillery, etc.), but in the fall, when they started the Avdiivka operation, that number went up to 10k shells/day. The US currently produces 30k artillery shells/month.
"The U.S. defense industrial base has more than doubled its output of 155 mm artillery ammunition since December 2022. U.S. companies are currently producing about 30,000 shells a month, and the Army hopes to increase that tally to 60,000 rounds per month by September 2024, and to 100,000 rounds per month by the end of 2025." -
Foreign Policy.
And we have the largest military-industrial complex in the west, sure we should account for other nations: Brits, Koreans, Czehs, Poles, Germans, etc. But at the same time, we need to remember that ukraine doesn't receive 100% of artillery shells manufactured in the western aligned world - there are other customers (such as Israel, but its not the only one) and our militaries need ammo for both: training and to replenish depleted stocks.
Meanwhile Russia is already manufacturing 250k artillery shells/month.
"Russia is producing about 250,000 artillery munitions per month, or about 3 million a year, according to NATO intelligence estimates of Russian defense production shared with CNN, as well as sources familiar with Western efforts to arm Ukraine. Collectively, the US and Europe have the capacity to generate only about 1.2 million munitions annually to send to Kyiv, a senior European intelligence official told CNN." -
CNN.
And this is just Russia alone, when You add munitions imported from Iran and North Korea, the gap becomes even greater. According to Boris Pistorius - German minister of defense - Russia is making enough munitions, not only for their operations in ukraine, but to stockpile them for a possible, future confrontation with NATO.
"Russia is already producing more arms and military equipment than it needs for its war against Ukraine, and is filling its weapons warehouses, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said, as reported by the German television channel n-tv on April 25.
Despite Western efforts to undermine Russia's industrial and military output, the country is only increasing its investment into arms production, allocating a record portion of its 2024 federal budget for military needs.
As Russia switches into a war economy mode, "a large part or part of what is newly produced no longer goes to the front, but ends up in warehouses," Pistorius said on air of the ARD program Maischberger." -
Kiev Independent.
As You can see, without an increase in the western military-industrial output, it will be difficult for ukraine to save up enough ammunition to launch an offensive - they would have to keep the daily consumption as low as possible despite the renewed US supplies. And it ain't that easy to increase the military production: there's only one plant - the Scranton Army Ammunition Plant - capable of making artillery shells in the US, they can work 24/7, in 3 shifts, and they still won't be able to catch up to the Russians. Not without building new ammo plants. And while there are plans to build new weapons factories, both here and in Europe, they won't be built overnight. This is something that even ukrainians themselves have been forced to acknowledge.
"Kuleba said the west needed to increase arms production, as Ukraine had, because it had been outpaced by Russia. Russia is out-shelling Ukraine by a ratio of about 10 to one, while Ukraine is running short of air defences.
“When I see what Russia achieved in building up its defence industrial base in two years of the war and what the west has achieved, I think something is wrong on the part of the west,” Kuleba said." - ukrainian foreign minister for the
Guardian.
And those are just artillery shells we're talking about, the overmatch of Russian industry becomes even greater when it comes to other weapon systems, partly because we closed down many of our production lines completely (we are sending Bradleys but we're not making new ones anymore) and laid off skilled workers, and partly because of the for-profit nature of private, publicly traded, weapon manufacturers.
So, as I said before, ukraine needs time - much more time than just 3-5 months - to regain their combat potential.
