Lounge of The Russian-Ukrainian War

Pointy Elbows said:
Trump and Fico both going hard on Zelensky. Both were subject to assassination attempt/s. One of Trump's assassins was a Ukraine fanboy that had spent years in the middle of spook recruitment turf. IIRC, Fico's assassination attempt was shortly after he had declared Slovakia as neutral or some such unacceptable comment - surely drawing attention from Zelensky.

I think both these men suspect Zelensky was part of these attempts, if not directly, then at least by association/causal. As a matter of life, they want him gone from the scene. Trump and Fico appear savvy and redpilled enough to suspect their own intel services may have even had a hand along the way - that's another reckoning to come.



Trump offering to withdraw US forces from ALL of Europe? If true, that is monumental. It is also very hard to reverse in short order (and certainly can't be done in real secrecy). Meaning, such a withdrawal, if reversed by a future Dem President, would take years to simply re-fill the current slots (let alone get on a true war footing). That pushes the reaction window well into the next administration's timeline, somewhat countering the understandable objection about ever-shifting US policy. Big missile implications as well - intermediate range systems become almost mute, once removed from European launchsites.

Dniprropetrovsk, Kherson, and Odessa oblasts are not converted to Russian rule presently. I don't think Putin is gullible enough to stop without at least Kherson and Odessa (oh, and Kharkiv). Interesting start point, and a fairly generous one if it means total US withdrawal from Europe.

If US weapons have stopped, the fat lady is singing. Somewhere else I read that US assets are no longer communicating incoming long-range missile strikes to Ukraine units - leaving Ukraine almost blind. For heaven's sake, now's the time for "decision making centers." Maybe the front line guys can get a pass on that type of attack at least. I guess we'll see just how long Ukraine can last once the US faucet is closed - maybe highlighting what a sham the whole thing was.
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Lavrov likely demanded that the US would keep James Bakers' promise to Gorbachev back in 1990.


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I was highly skeptical about the negotiations when they started - I still think they're going to be more difficult and take longer than many think - but the sheer amount of previously unthinkable truth about the war being publicly stated by Trump and Vance (still limited by questions of diplomacy, saving face, etc - quite understandable) makes me cautiously optimistic that true negotiations are possible and the new American government is going into this with serious intentions of finding a solution. That doesn't guarantee that one will be found, or found quickly, but it's something that was systemically impossible under the previous admin.
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Why Moscow is serious about current negotiations with the US: The keyword here is 'respect'.

1. Russia does not believe in the full sovereignty of the EU, let alone Ukraine. The US holds a commanding lead in military and economic power, makes all the major decisions, and expects Brussels and Kyiv to follow suit;

2. Negotiations with Brussels or Kiev are seen as a smokescreen. The real sovereign is in Washington — if the US genuinely wanted talks, it would engage directly. If, instead, it insists that Russia negotiate with the EU or Ukraine, Moscow sees this as a sign of insincerity. The same logic applies if figures like von der Leyen or Zelensky had been brought to Riyadh;

3. Moscow is unwavering in its belief that it has 'geopolitical interests' — and that these must be respected. This means having the right to set red lines and expect them to be acknowledged by peers. Russian FM Lavrov stated that in Riyadh, both sides agreed that each country is entitled to its own national interest — a seemingly basic recognition, but a major departure from previous US policy;

4. You heard it here first: If Russia feels respected, it will be open to concessions — so long as they do not threaten its sovereignty or its core 'geopolitical interests.' Yes, that includes its relationship with China. While Moscow respects Beijing, it is concerned with China upholding US sanctions and still seeks a multi-track foreign policy and may thus be ready for some concessions.

If Washington, however, wants to keep pushing Russia closer to China and Iran, revitalize BRICS, and further alienate the Global South, it is free to continue ‘isolating’ and ‘boxing in’ Moscow — sticking to all the wonderful tenets of Joe Biden’s foreign policy.
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expectation said:
Lavrov likely demanded that the US would keep James Bakers' promise to Gorbachev back in 1990.


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Seems unrealistic. The NATO expansion is "fait accompli" and there's nothing to be done about it now - there's no mechanism to expel a member state from the alliance, so the expansion can't be reversed. What is more realistic, is the withdraw of American troops from the east NATO countries, but even then some will have to remain, because over the years we've built a lot of military infrastructure there and not all of it can be abandoned.
 
TruckDriver9 said:
Seems unrealistic. The NATO expansion is "fait accompli" and there's nothing to be done about it now - there's no mechanism to expel a member state from the alliance, so the expansion can't be reversed. What is more realistic, is the withdraw of American troops from the east NATO countries, but even then some will have to remain, because over the years we've built a lot of military infrastructure there and not all of it can be abandoned.
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A much easier solution.
The USA can just leave NATO.....at which point NATO becomes a paper tiger.
 
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