Lounge of The Russian-Ukrainian War

Will the capture of Avdeevka break the AFU?
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It potentially could. The Russians are very close to closing the cauldron. The southern pincer has almost reached Sieverne, while the northern Pincer has reached the outskirts of the Coke plant and Stepove.

The Coke plant is the most crucial location in all of Avdeevka. It is very fortified and the only MSR (Main Supply Road) goes through it. A Russian capture of the Coke plant and direct cutting off of the MSR will mean that Avdeevka could fall within weeks since it is the only paved road and the other roads are unpaved and will be useless once they become muddy.

If the Russians take the Coke plant and secure Sieverne there is a real chance they could completely close the cauldron. There is apparently close to 15,000 Ukrainian soldiers in Avdeevka and Zelensky has ordered another 10-15,000 to be rushed in the save the city. The Russians never joined the two pincers in Bakhmut, but I think there is a big chance they will succeed to do so here.

If the Russians close the cauldron they could potentially trap 20-30,000 Ukrainians and create the biggest cauldron since the battle of Debaltseve (2015). This would be a huge political and strategical defeat for Zelensky. The fall of Avdeevka would enable Russia to eventually collapse the entire Donetsk frontline since it's fall would allow the Russians to take in succession Krasnohorivka, the rest of Marinka, the villages south-west of Marinka, and then attack Ugledar from the North-East. Furthermore, Ukraine has rushed in what is left of their ''elite'' western-armed 47th brigade from the Zaporizhia front with Leopard tanks and Bradleys. This shows that Ukraine is almost out of reserves.

A big cauldron in Avdeevka could be the end of Zelensky. I think there is a big chance he could be toppled by a coup if the city falls.
 
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I would have thought the opposite is true. Does Russia not meet the definition of an emerging threat to US hegemony, or whatever the stated euphemism is in the Worowitz Doctrine?

The US is trying to kill as many Russians as they can and weaken morale by making it their Vietnam.

But it's costing USA more than it does Russia. The USA is willing to outspend Russia at a 3-1 ratio, so the USA is assuming they can simply overwhelm Russia. But if Russia is not being overwhelmed, then Russia is bleeding us at a 3-1 ratio instead. The USA assumed they would push Russia to the breaking point, yet instead they find themselves wasting tons of cash. That's not weakening your opponent if you're also growing even more weak.
 
But it's costing USA more than it does Russia. The USA is willing to outspend Russia at a 3-1 ratio, so the USA is assuming they can simply overwhelm Russia. But if Russia is not being overwhelmed, then Russia is bleeding us at a 3-1 ratio instead. The USA assumed they would push Russia to the breaking point, yet instead they find themselves wasting tons of cash. That's not weakening your opponent if you're also growing even more weak.
You also need to add the diversification of Russian exports and entire supply chains being rebuilt either domestically or with China and others.

If international power is a zero-sum game, the Europeans and Americans have lost heavily and will lose even more heavily over the next 10-20 years thanks to Ukraine.

Plus, the sociocultural and military benefits of the special military operation are there for all to see. Afghanistan was a huge military misadventure for the Soviets, so it is hard to say that anything could really be learned from it, other than to avoid such engagements in the first place.

But in Ukraine the Russians, with comparatively minimal losses, have effectively gained the lessons of a Finnish War/early period of Operation Barbarossa, all without the spectacularly bad routings and losses those conflicts inflicted on the Red Army.

I see Russia’s birthrate and catastrophically high number of abortions as a problem, but Russian society itself has withstood the test of the SMO and one would hope the country uses its pariah status in the West to further insulate the population from the globalhomo agenda.
 
Zelensky will not allow this to happen. He considers the coke plant to be Ukraine's greatest strategic location.
Former Wagner regiments are reportedly in Avdeevka and are the prime candidates to storm the coke plant. Furthermore, Russia is dropping FAB-1500 glide bombs (1.5 metric ton bombs) that are bunker busters on the coke plant and have degraded Ukrainian Air defense so much that they are flying attack helicopters next to the plant. Finally, Russia is trying to bring TOS-1A/new TOS-2 flamethrowers within striking distance. Ukraine already destroyed one TOS-1A the Russians were trying to bring there, but if they manage to bring one of those within range of the plant the Ukrainians will be vaporized.

In sum, if the Russians seriously attempt to take the Coke plant and are willing to take heavy casualties (which they apparently are), there is nothing the Ukrainians can do to stop it.
 
Former Wagner regiments are reportedly in Avdeevka and are the prime candidates to storm the coke plant. Furthermore, Russia is dropping FAB-1500 glide bombs (1.5 metric ton bombs) that are bunker busters on the coke plant and have degraded Ukrainian Air defense so much that they are flying attack helicopters next to the plant. Finally, Russia is trying to bring TOS-1A/new TOS-2 flamethrowers within striking distance. Ukraine already destroyed one TOS-1A the Russians were trying to bring there, but if they manage to bring one of those within range of the plant the Ukrainians will be vaporized.

In sum, if the Russians seriously attempt to take the Coke plant and are willing to take heavy casualties (which they apparently are), there is nothing the Ukrainians can do to stop it.
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I keep reading that "negotiations for a diplomatic solution will begin soon" AKA the Ukrainians are running out of steam.

The problem though, is they already tried that with the Minsk accords, and ZOG simply used that time to build up the Ukrainian military and attack Russian speaking citizens in east Ukraine. How could Putin and Russia ever trust a "diplomatic resolution" after that?
 
Wait a second, is this new speaker actually decent? I just assumed he'd be RINO scum like the last one.

Total WWF kabuki theater.

Meet the new boss!
Same as the old boss!

Johnson told a group of GOP senators he supports aid for Ukraine—a hotly contested issue among congressional Republicans—as well as a resolution to temporarily keep the government funded through January 15

House Republicans had introduced an appropriations package earlier this week that included $14.3 billion in military aid to Israel
 
Wait a second, is this new speaker actually decent? I just assumed he'd be RINO scum like the last one.
He shot down an anti-abortion bill in Louisiana that would have reckoned abortion as homicide. He is currently being painted as the "Christian Nationalist" boogeyman by the Ministry of Truth. Meanwhile, he has undercut the efforts and wasted the time of actual Christian Nationalists who have put themselves on the line.

https://19thnews.org/2022/05/louisiana-law-anti-abortion-group-limits/
 
Correct. If the Russians take the Coke plant you can count the number of days before Avdeevka falls since the city will almost be fully encircled and the Main Supply Road (which passes at the southern tip of the plant) will be cut.
 
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