Iran-Israeli Conflict Thread

Bannon had lunch earlier with Trump. According to this article, Trump delayed the decision whether to strike Iran for up to 2 more weeks after they met.

 
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This war reflects poorly on Russia as expected.

20% of Ukraine's population are ethnic Russians. Simply indiscriminately launching missiles into Ukraine would not sit well with the Russian population, whereas the people are generally fine with simply steadily occupying more and more Ukrainian territory, while rebuilding those cities in the process, with minimal collateral damage. In addition, Russians view Ukrainians as Orthodox Slavs who has simply been manipulated by a bunch of propaganda.

In addition, Russians don't hate Ukrainians. The same can't be said about Iranians and Jews. Both sides would absolutely nuke each other, if there were no further consequences.

Regular Persians and their opportunistic diaspora. Same playbook.









To be fair, it's not unusual for people to want to stay in their home country. Moving somewhere you don't speak the language, just to end being a refugee doesn't really sound too enticing to everybody.

That said, various diasporas always seem to be the biggest patriots posting the the most controversial views and content from the comfort of their apartments in Berlin, London or Chicago.
 
Bannon had lunch earlier with Trump. According to this article, Trump delayed the decision whether to strike Iran for up to 2 more weeks after they met.


Trump is probably more concerned with potentially being dragged into a 3-theatre war. Ukraine, Middle East, and China.

For if America gets into a war with the Middle East, wouldn't China see an opportunity to attack? And North Korea?

Remember when you're the top dawg (aka America) then if the little dogs see other dogs start piling up on you, they will all join in. Doesn't make sense to fight everyone at once and it poses serious risks to America.

Surely Trump has to be considering this.

If America didn't have a Ukraine situation, then taking down Iran would be fairly easy (but expensive). Harder than Iraq but still quite doable to bomb out the reactors, bomb out major cities for a few months, and then move on.

But since America has enemies all over the world, Trump surely is considering the larger strategic perspective here. It's not difficult to figure out.
 
Trump is probably more concerned with potentially being dragged into a 3-theatre war. Ukraine, Middle East, and China.

For if America gets into a war with the Middle East, wouldn't China see an opportunity to attack? And North Korea?

Remember when you're the top dawg (aka America) then if the little dogs see other dogs start piling up on you, they will all join in. Doesn't make sense to fight everyone at once and it poses serious risks to America.

Surely Trump has to be considering this.

If America didn't have a Ukraine situation, then taking down Iran would be fairly easy (but expensive). Harder than Iraq but still quite doable to bomb out the reactors, bomb out major cities for a few months, and then move on.

But since America has enemies all over the world, Trump surely is considering the larger strategic perspective here. It's not difficult to figure out.
It isn't just an opportunity for China and Russia to get one in on the USA, China and Russia have billions invested in this Iran regime. I don't see them sitting there and letting it get toppled, and their oil fields and belt and road project handed over to a pro-western govt.

Maybe they will, it just seems unlikely. I think Trump is trying to decide if they can bomb and move on, and my guess is that this is going to be a lot tougher than the originally thought and if they are not successful the downside could be big. I saw today that some believe it would take our two largest bunker buster bombs, dropped in the exact same spot on their nuclear site, under war-like conditions, and not knowing exactly what Iran is hiding, making it a very tough call.

I pray Trump is going to call it off and find a peaceful solution.
 
I don't know what Iran is firing now, but it is really big. Listening to a great podcast, deep dive on this subject, an Iranian general said they had expected this war to happen, even during negotiations, they just didn't expect Israel to go in before the negotiations were done. That they had made great advances in their missile tech in just the last few months leading up to the Israel attack and they have some big things to show if Israel wants to keep pushing. Also, they could fire missiles continuously for about 6 months, without rebuilding them. But they can build them quickly and so far they are just going in with small waves that are getting larger each time.

 
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Also another reminder to everyone else to let the information you let into your brain not solely just be "based" podcasts and social media feeds from dissident activists/third worlders (a lot of times they are the same). We all know about how boomers have rotted their brains with cable TV - the equivalent of this for Gen X/millennial/zoomer crowd would be the constant stream of podcasts and Twitter feeds from a media scene that while will give you information that MSM won't allowed to be broadcast is also filled with grifters and people posting engagement bait.

A good example of the third worlder grifting engagement farmer types would be that Sulaiman Ahmed account that people been posting here to show that Iran has Israel on the ropes. I been following his posts to because I wanted a pro-Iranian source but after a while it seems like the classic South Asian engagement farmer grifter type that's flooding X now. An example of his bait:



He posted a cover of a book to make his claim that Israel will nuke not just it's enemies in the Middle East but even places like Moscow and Washington (think a bit about how strange it is launch nukes at two countries that are on the opposite side of the conflict) but if you look "Samson Option" book he mention, there's nothing mentioned in it about Israel nuking the cities mentioned in his tweet. Here's full text if you want to investigate yourself. Do a quick Crtl+F search with the locations the tweet is mentioning as target for nukes and see for yourself if there's any mention of Israel planning to send nukes towards those locations mentioned in the tweet.


Unfortunately less discerning types will plug this sort of content feed into their brains and let it unmoor their minds from reality which is why you end up seeing these people making bizarre predictions like how Tel Aviv was supposed to not exist anymore at this point with their reasoning being pretty much "I saw some videos of big missiles blowing up in Israel".
 
Also another reminder to everyone else to let the information you let into your brain not solely just be "based" podcasts and social media feeds from dissident activists/third worlders (a lot of times they are the same). We all know about how boomers have rotted their brains with cable TV - the equivalent of this for Gen X/millennial/zoomer crowd would be the constant stream of podcasts and Twitter feeds from a media scene that while will give you information that MSM won't allowed to be broadcast is also filled with grifters and people posting engagement bait.

A good example of the third worlder grifting engagement farmer types would be that Sulaiman Ahmed account that people been posting here to show that Iran has Israel on the ropes. I been following his posts to because I wanted a pro-Iranian source but after a while it seems like the classic South Asian engagement farmer grifter type that's flooding X now. An example of his bait:



He posted a cover of a book to make his claim that Israel will nuke not just it's enemies in the Middle East but even places like Moscow and Washington (think a bit about how strange it is launch nukes at two countries that are on the opposite side of the conflict) but if you look "Samson Option" book he mention, there's nothing mentioned in it about Israel nuking the cities mentioned in his tweet. Here's full text if you want to investigate yourself. Do a quick Crtl+F search with the locations the tweet is mentioning as target for nukes and see for yourself if there's any mention of Israel planning to send nukes towards those locations mentioned in the tweet.


Unfortunately less discerning types will plug this sort of content feed into their brains and let it unmoor their minds from reality which is why you end up seeing these people making bizarre predictions like how Tel Aviv was supposed to not exist anymore at this point with their reasoning being pretty much "I saw some videos of big missiles blowing up in Israel".

But he's not the first one to make the claim. Years ago I looked into the Samson option, and I remember back then there was intel saying that Israel would nuke the Middle Eastern capitals and "antisemitic" Europe. I don't remember the US being mentioned specifically. An alleged Israeli leak was recently released showing US cities like Washington, DC or Los Angeles being targeted. I have no idea if it's authentic or not.


You see, this is a very potent form of blackmail. Make sure we stay standing or you all burn with us. The Israeli regime is entirely deranged and if they feel Israel is lost, they will nuke the whole world out of spite.

For what it's worth, I tuned in to Suleiman's live space and the speakers there have been sharing lots of good updates. It seems to be a mix of left and right-wing anti-Zionists.
 
But he's not the first one to make the claim. Years ago I looked into the Samson option, and I remember back then there was intel saying that Israel would nuke the Middle Eastern capitals and "antisemitic" Europe. I don't remember the US being mentioned specifically. An alleged Israeli leak was recently released showing US cities like Washington, DC or Los Angeles being targeted. I have no idea if it's authentic or not.


You see, this is a very potent form of blackmail. Make sure we stay standing or you all burn with us. The Israeli regime is entirely deranged and if they feel Israel is lost, they will nuke the whole world out of spite.

For what it's worth, I tuned in to Suleiman's live space and the speakers there have been sharing lots of good updates. It seems to be a mix of left and right-wing anti-Zionists.

Those screen shots in the Telegram post you of what is supposed to be some Israeli document was also shown in the video in the tweet I linked to above. I'm not sure what the source is but definitely isn't in the book he mentioned nor in that "Handala hack" article that he posted a screencap of - also in that Twitter video.

This is the article he posted a screenshot of. There's no mention of any nukes:


Even if there's something to theory about Israel firing nukes all over the world as a last option, nothing in the video embedded in the Tweet posted by this guy that actually proves the theory. The two sources he put into the video to give it a bit more credibility (the Samson Option book from that American Jewish author and the screencap of the article about Israel being hacked) don't mention anything about it. He was hoping that people will watch the video and think "well the video mentioned there's documents that was hacked from Israeli intelligence that supposedly has a list of cities to be nuked as a last resort (show screencaps of documents with some Hebrew on it) and then there was a screenshot of an article about Israeli intelligence hacked so this article must be talking about these documents were acquired from the hack" without actually looking for the article show and seeing for themselves that there's nothing about nukes in it.

Same with showing the cover of that Samson Option book. He knew most people wouldn't actually bother to find out what's in the book and just assume the book talks about secret Israeli plans to nuke the world.

This just illustrates what I was saying about these sort of accounts being engagement chasers that won't intellectual sloppiness get in the way of getting the clicks and giving people what they want to hear. Even if the whole theory about Israel planning to nuke the world was true, this guy isn't setting himself up as any sort of serious commentator by presenting his argument in the fashion he has with sources that don't actually support what he is saying.
 
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