Iran-Israeli Conflict Thread
- Thread starter LaAguilaNegra
- Start date
Because Iran has nothing to gain from all-out war with the US/Israel/GCC. Their strategy is to carefully balance their response: it must be damaging enough discourage continued aggression, but not so damaging that it instead demands retaliation. They understand that this war is not popular in the U.S., but footage of a sinking aircraft carrier and thousands of dead American sailers could turn that sentiment around on a dime.
Their strategy so far seems to be hitting GCC countries as a means of pressuring them to reduce their logistical support for the U.S. This is a far-flung campaign for the American military, and we rely heavily on the logistical support of our GCC allies. There is no way that even a modest air campaign could be sustained without their assistance. It's a risky gambit, though, because of what I said above. The danger is that their response may actually incite enough public anger to encourage further aggression against Iran, rather than discourage it.
You understandably think that way but they don't have that luxury, our perception of the situation from the safety of whichever western country we reside in is not the same as their perception actually being in harms way. They see the USA as a necessary evil they have to play ball with, playing ball with Iran does not benefit them unless they have no choice because their bridge with the USA is burned.
That's not to say they are correct or wrong in it but that's the reality.
I’d argue that this is both the highest hope of the MIC and the worst possible outcome for the doves. Trump and the rest of the scumbags would love nothing more than some dead American soldiers so they could induce a spirit of revenge into the American people. Trump, Graham, and others have already signaled this when they talked about “sacrifices.”
They only need to stay neutral and refuse to host the US military. They do not need to support Iran.
This is absolutely true. And you can be sure the usual suspects will immediately begin waving the bloody shirt and shouting about how the Iranians must pay, even if only a handful of U.S. service members are killed in this campaign.
Because they did it just 8 months ago.
Why would they do something which wouldn't benefit and may even hurt them when they can instead do something which does benefit them and can easily sell to their people? Arabs in general do not like iranians for a multitude of reasons and those in the middle east who are not arabs are generally not muslim and the ones that are such as the kurds and turks despise iranians even more, start with that when you make assessments as to their actions.
How does staying neutral and refusing to host the US military hurt them?
What’s still up in the air is how far they want to push this, how strong their resolve is. With Iraq, you needed a catalyst as big as 9/11 to fuel the fire. Given that more people are wise to their act this time around, I’d imagine a few dead soldiers just wouldn’t cut it. Then again, they’ve become more brazen and don’t put on as much theater as they used to.
Defying what the USA wants generally isn't good for a government, I'm sure you understand that.
I think the fact we were desperate enough to just kick this off, without a false flag, is telling that they simply do not care what we think or say. No 9/11 needed this time, just start a war and be the bad guys, who cares what your citizens think or say.
I have some doubts too about how if this time around they actually drum up enough support for an escalation even if there's the video of a US carrier sinking with thousands of US military deaths. 20 years ago, yes but given the general war weariness across all political spectrums along with people of all political persuasions being more aware of Israeli shenanigans + Trump's reputation of TACOing and how he hasn't shown any stomach yet for foreign operations that aren't of the one and done deal, I'm not so sure.
I figured the Iranian leadership must have made the same calculation and if they haven't responded strongly yet there's a good chance it's because they simply aren't capable of and not because they are doing the geopolitical equivalent of the elementary school aged kid saying "I could have beaten you up if I was trying" after losing a playground brawl.
Hard fact of life but another one is what constant appeasement of an evil empire will eventually do to your country. It's almost a case of choosing to die standing up (Germany) or on your knees (Libya).
Yes and I'm glad the disconnection of jews from reality saved us a false flag this time.
At some point though, they have to take the decision as to whether continuing to support the US, no matter what it does, is going to be more painful than insisting on neutrality. The events of today have shown us that the era of zero consequences for these poodles is over, and the US is an empire in decline.
Again easy for us to talk about what another country should or shouldn't do from the comfort of our safe western countries. I'm not telling you that what you're wishing for is wrong I'm just pointing out what is realistic about the situation. Arabs don't like iranians and today they have more to gain from the USA than they do from Iran, that's it.....it may not always be that way but that's what it is today and now.
Loose example that comes to mind look at the african countries signing up with China or even some of the middle eastern countries doing the same, they know damn well china wants absolutely nothing but to strip them of their resources and will turn on a dime dropping them like a bad habit once they don't serve that purpose anymore. Everyone knows that but they don't have a better choice, it's just the realism of the situation.
Warning. Cursing in video, not safe for work.