Iran-Israeli Conflict Thread

Or did they just feed Grok with inside information?
I asked Grok about troops deployment:

can you give an estimate of when will US troops be deployed to iran?

My estimate: If deployment occurs, it could start between mid-March (around March 15) and late March 2026, assuming current trajectories hold and no de-escalation happens. This is not guaranteed, as Trump has emphasized keeping options open without committing.

Draft?

My estimate: A draft is unlikely in the immediate term (next 1-3 months), as the conflict is still air/naval-dominant and U.S. forces are positioned for limited operations. If it escalates to a ground invasion or stalemates into a prolonged war (e.g., involving regime change or countering proxies like those in Iraq or Lebanon), reinstatement could realistically happen by mid-2026, around June-August, once volunteer shortfalls become evident and Congress acts. This aligns with historical precedents where drafts ramp up after initial escalations, but it's speculative and depends on de-escalation efforts failing.

Conscription?

However, the Pentagon maintains that the all-volunteer force is adequate for current operations, which remain air- and naval-focused with no major ground invasion. No draft legislation has been introduced in Congress, and analysts estimate the probability at around 3%, rising only if the conflict escalates to a prolonged occupation requiring 500,000+ additional troops or multi-theater wars (e.g., involving China). Recent military buildups and rhetoric about extending the war (from days to months) add uncertainty, but recruitment has reportedly increased post-DEI reforms, reducing the need.


I do not foresee conscription happening in the near term (e.g., 2026), as the conflict's scope doesn't demand it yet. It could become plausible by late 2026 or 2027 if there's a shift to full-scale ground operations, regime change, or broader escalation involving proxies or allies like Russia/China, leading to volunteer shortfalls. This is speculative and hinges on de-escalation failing, but current trajectories suggest it's avoidable.


Let´s see if this stupid machine is right.
 
Both the military facilities and the school were struck multiple times. There was no missing of targets, they were both accurately hit as intended.
But why? Why would you target a girls school as an opener? That's not going to demoralise and force capitulation, that's going to harden resolve to fight to the last man. It seems to me they (those orchestrating this war) don't want regime change, they want a war of attrition, a war of mass casualties.
 
Two Israelis reported dead in Iranian strikes.




Israeli drivers shelter under a bridge during strikes.




Reuters: The Kuwaitis tell Bagdad to stop attacks coming from Iraqi territory.




Iranian cluster bombs are doing significant damage in Israel.

 
You will need to ask the US administration. It is unclear whether the targeting was:

1. Knowingly striking a school to demoralize the population.
2. A human decision based on incorrect data about the use of the school building.
3. An AI decision based on same incorrect data.

The administration is still claiming Iran bombed their own school. This ridiculous position suggests that the truth is too bad to admit.
 
I wish we had an Iranian or someone more informed on Iranian matters to explain Pezeshkian to me. People on X are lashing out at him for his recent statement, and this isn't new. I've heard people accuse him of subversion before.

One good clue about Pezeshkian is that he is the only high level Iranian official who wasn't killed by Israel or the US since he became president 2 years ago...
 
Regarding prediction of events related to war, there has been some frequency of major attacks in late February & March in the past 80 years, including the largest bombing raid on Japan on March 9-10, 1945 (the fire bombing of Tokyo), the beginning of Gulf War 2 on March 20, 2003, Ukraine War beginning on Feb. 22, 2022, and this Iran war on Feb. 28, 2026.

All of these events require months of planning and preparation, including propaganda such as the Pres. Bush, Jr. administration falsely blaming Iraq for 9/11 over 900 times in public statements, mixed with the campaign of lies about WMD's that included Netanyahu.

Undoubtedly, the current war has been planned since last year's 12 day war on Iran in June.
 
This man has been a viral beneficiary of the war. He's all over the place on social media now.

Has anyone else encountered his videos? Did you know about him prior to a week ago?



Yale grad (Skull and Bones vibes), talks positively about Sabbatean Frankism, does a lot of "Pax Judaica' predictive programming, has a kind of early career Epstein gig as a teacher at a high end prep school in China, heavily promoted on social media.
 
You will need to ask the US administration. It is unclear whether the targeting was:

1. Knowingly striking a school to demoralize the population.
2. A human decision based on incorrect data about the use of the school building.
3. An AI decision based on same incorrect data.

The administration is still claiming Iran bombed their own school. This ridiculous position suggests that the truth is too bad to admit.
4. Made by luciferian lunatics who believe in child sacrifice.
 

"Oh no Purple, you're a nut bag, (((They))) don't have AI 4D Chess Super Computers that can predict the future!"

^ In addition, this is bullshi*t, because if the reptilian jew stooge Elon is willing to admit this level of AI future predicting in public just imagine what (((They))) really have behind closed doors?

This whole fake war has been modeled out by future predicting super computers months in advance with "if we do this, they'll do that" spread and balance sheets that show profit/loss margins and just how much money they'll make from every bomb dropped, blown up plane, sunk ship, destroyed building, non-functioning oil refinery, and child killed.

It's crazy to see the American masses being subjugated right before their very own eyes using their own tax dollars and still stay sitting on the couch with an attitude of "Muh, $5 dollar a gallon gasoline, and more of our Christian sons killed in The Middle East to protect jews, but meh, this is fine."
 
I know the reports coming out today say that the USA underestimated the response by Iran. I am not surprised this to be true; we have so many incompetent people running most everything in the USA. Here is further evidence of them not thinking this through.

 
But why? Why would you target a girls school as an opener? That's not going to demoralise and force capitulation, that's going to harden resolve to fight to the last man. It seems to me they (those orchestrating this war) don't want regime change, they want a war of attrition, a war of mass casualties.
The Tomahawk strike on the Minab girls school was an accident, mistakes happen in wartime and the ongoing investigation will clarify things in due time. Most likely the compound was targeted due to outdated data, the school building used to be part of an IRGC compound (until 2016 when it was fenced off) and most of the students were children of IRGC naval personnel that worked on the bases nearby .

What wasn't an accident though was the IRGC's decision build a school on one of their military bases, and then fencing it off and technically turn the base within stone's throw from one of their military bases. That's either stupidity or a deliberate attempt at mixing up civilian and military infrastructure and judging by the MidEast's habit to turn schools, hospitals, mosques and kindergartens into military hubs it could very well be the latter.

What's also not an accident is the current deluge of tragedy propaganda related to this incident. The school bombing happened over a week ago already, and wasn't much of an issue in the immediate aftermath. Suddenly it's everywhere. A possible explanation: due to rising energy prices and Tehran's decision to hold the world hostage through energy blockade a deflectionary narrative was build up. In this case that's the 'bloodthirsty US childkillers level Iranian school for fun'.



 
Grok list of zhirinovsky predictions regarding Iran. Zhirinovsky was a jew. So maybe he had insider:

His key predictions on the Iran war scenario, based on documented speeches, TV appearances, and archival clips (e.g., 2012–2013 MGIMO talks, 2019 interviews on programs like those with Vladimir Solovyov), include:
  • Initiation by Israel: The conflict begins with Israel launching strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities—specifically sites for uranium enrichment, possible nuclear warhead production, or related research centers—based on Israeli intelligence assessments.
  • Iranian retaliation: Iran responds forcefully, causing "minor" or "local" destruction in Israel (e.g., missile strikes leading to significant but not total damage).
  • US ("big brother") intervention: This retaliation provides a pretext for the United States to step in massively, mobilizing NATO allies to bomb Iran extensively with air and missile attacks, potentially using "terrible" or "local-effect" weapons (some interpretations suggest tactical nuclear options, though he varied on this).
  • Escalation risks: The war could spiral into a broader catastrophe, including nuclear weapon use ("There will be a nuclear weapon used in this war"), positioning the Middle East (with Iran as the epicenter) as the trigger for World War III. He warned the West was "playing with fire" by provoking Russia, Iran, and China.
  • Economic and global fallout: Oil prices would surge dramatically (to $200–$300 per barrel), crippling economies dependent on Middle East supplies (especially Europe and China, weakening rivals), while benefiting Russia as an alternative energy supplier. Massive refugee waves would flee northward (millions via Azerbaijan, Turkey, Central Asia, potentially reaching Russia and Europe).
  • Overshadowing other conflicts: Events in the Middle East would make the world "forget about Ukraine" or other issues, as the Iran-centered war becomes the dominant crisis.
  • Longer-term outcomes: Post-conflict realignments could include a new division of spheres between Russia and the US (a "Sochi Yalta"-style agreement), with remnants of Iran (and possibly Turkey) falling under Russian influence or control. In earlier writings (e.g., his 1990s book The Final Thrust South), he envisioned Russia directly capturing or dominating Iran for resources and access to warm seas.
He based his predictions on Kissinger. according to him Kissinger had the following plans:
  • The U.S. would orchestrate or support an Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, leading to Iranian retaliation and massive U.S./NATO intervention.
  • This would draw Russia and China into defending Iran (as allies or to counter Western dominance), escalating to full-scale war with nuclear weapons.
  • In the resulting global nuclear exchange, Europe, the Middle East, Russia, China, and other regions would be devastated by fallout, destruction, and chaos.
  • The U.S., being geographically distant (across oceans), with superior missile defenses, dispersed population/industry, and no direct homeland invasion risk in this scenario, would suffer far less damage—allowing it to "rise from the nuclear dust" (or "из ядерной пыли" in Russian clips) as the only intact major power.
  • He phrased it dramatically: "In that future war with the use of nuclear weapons, as Kissinger writes, from this nuclear dust only one state will rise—and that's the USA!" He insisted this was "all planned" per Kissinger's alleged blueprint for U.S. hegemony through controlled chaos.
It looks like in both scenarios nuclear bombs would be used. The winner of the nuclear dust would be US or US and Russia. Depending on russian or american jew side.
 
Two Israelis reported dead in Iranian strikes.


The two victims were Chinese and working on one of the many Chinese investment projects in Israel. The latter is particularly ironic because just a few weeks ago several members of this board tried to push the absurd narrative that the Chinese were pulling out of Israel, delusional stuff.



 
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