Financial Crash (2022-25)
- Thread starter Cynllo
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Looking at that graph, the current numbers are not that much higher than typical for decades, in spite of playing catch up from after evictions were suspended for covid.
Yes. I could be wrong, but I no longer think there's anything like a crash coming. Nothing worse than 2008, at least. Instead it will be a slow slide into something like Brazil, just with worse weather, uglier women, and de facto legal hate crimes against white people, for the US at least.Waiting for the financial crash in the last 20 years...
It happened already.Waiting for the financial crash in the last 20 years...
My dad at 25 years old worked in factory, bought a 3 bedroom house with a garden, bought a new car without a loan, got a baby and paid for all, as my mother was a housewife without any subsidies.
Now look around you, which 25 year could do that?
Our rulers are masters of deception, they made us believe wealth is the stock market, or house prices.
Wealth is this:
We live in USSR communism with the same deceptive narratives. And every year it gets a little bit worse. I pay a 60% tax rate; income tax + car tax + VAT, +fuel tax etc etc.
Saying something about it, makes you a right wing extremist as these rulers only have the best intentions.
But to be serious, they gave us a narratives of market crashes, people roaming the streets broke, without food, no energy, zombies and that's what we compare our lifes too. And then we say: "ah well it's not that bad"
It is bad. And the bureaucracy grows, and people get poorer every year; spiritually and economically.
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And the thing is, in Japan they were able to do it without unleashing massive inflation (though I believe it's a temporary condition and the chickens will come home to roost, Japan's inflation picked up recently)
- but America can not do it the Japanese way.
Japan was a trade surplus nation for most of the time and America has big trade deficits for decades while running petrodollar reserve currency system.
Also, Japan managed to keep much of these new printed money (from financing its huge national debt/buying own bonds) locked inside bank reserves and not spilling into broader economy. Aging and declining population, stable more traditional society, tendency to save money and not use credit cards much, deleveraging after big Japanese bubble of the 80s, lower private debt including their companies, so overall there was not that much bank lending creating new money there that goes into broad economy to inflate things. Completely different situation from America.
Plus America runs huge healthcare expenses, much pricier than in Japan and big military expenses. Not likely that America can pull off the Japanese way with low inflation and high debt, unless something very drastic happens, like austerity
The crash happened in 08' and ever since then it's been one bail-in of the richest banks after another. Taxpayers now subsidize the rich and the working class is priced out permanently. This continues unless the workers revolt or die of old age (since they aren't reproducing). The immigrants to replace them won't be nearly as good but it's all relative anyways so the States still may be one of the best places in the North/South Americas regardless.
Eventually things continue until you get warlords rolling people's heads down pyramids in Southern America again, and people in North America living as nomads. The only remaining civilizations will remain in Asia.
Eventually things continue until you get warlords rolling people's heads down pyramids in Southern America again, and people in North America living as nomads. The only remaining civilizations will remain in Asia.
Great post. You hit the nail on the head, and all the other reasons you gave were also outstanding as to why inflation didn't go super duper crazy. It drives me crazy when "experts" talk about Japan as a comparison but leave out the manifold reasons you point out: they don't even usually mention even one or two as a check on themselves (Lance Roberts was most recently an embarrassment on this, as he says deflation to the USA is coming, lol).
Richard Koo pointed out that the balance sheet recession was why in large part, as in the quote here, the economy was lost and stagnant, but also why loans don't get out (and thus less production than normal also occurred). In the US that won't happen culturally, which is also a large general point of yours which is also super accurate.
The (de)population plan is going to be one of my next threads, vis a vis the cycles we are going to and coming up on this decade (the next 8 years). We just papered over a banking issue in March that was as big as 2008 in many ways. Legacy or traditional types are going to be very sorry soon, and I posted on a funny Dave Ramsey troll yesterday I think, that they don't realize their system and cush living is already gone, they just don't know it. Sorry that they don't own BTC given what's about to happen. I don't have to get doomsy again but population loss over the near to mid term is going to be quite big.
I'm ceaselessly amazed at the papering over part. We still have a steady stream of "stuff" that is piped now to our doors and tvs. It seems at the moment the plan is to ramp that trend up. I see a lot of enormous warehouses being built everywhere. I think most people still have the perception that things are getting better. They get what seems to be fancier and more stuff. Could it be we'll continue to go through collapse and most will not notice?
Our food is increasingly becoming trash and poisonous to us ...most people don't perceive that. Our healthcare has become deathcare ...most people don't perceive that. Most people don't perceive the damage from the jabs
I take it you think something more sudden will happen than what's already going on?
The nice thing about the hidden crash you describe is that if you understand what's going on you can avoid it and still live very nicely. Lift weights and cook your own food to stay healthy. Be financially responsible. Homeschool your children. Avoid COVID vaccines. Read the Bible, pray, listen to what the Lord has to tell you.
I have this perception that the world is falling apart around me, but at the same time my life has never been better. More reason to hope for a hidden crash that affects those who let it affect them rather than a Mad Max type scenario.
This is a very good point. I think this is holding true so far. It takes more effort to do things well in terms of finances, children, health, food, and church but you have to have the spiritual eyes for it. And the right kind of spiritual eyes. It takes quite a bit of effort to be at odds with the culture around you and it makes you uncomfortable the more you realize what is going on.
I think this crash depends on how strong this system really is that is being set up by our overlords. It really is all-encompassing and is seeking to encompass more. If it really goes down I think we won't be typing to each other anymore.
Otherwise, I think we'll be in this strange existence where everything is papered over. It will be an existence where it remains easy to get stuff but also easy to lose your soul.
I see this as happening a little while longer, so I think all of the above. What I think you are missing is that there will be a huge increase in the number of people that formerly had a standard of living, however thing or thread-like it was, that they'll "miss." You'll be able to type and interact but your general enjoyments and distractions will be fewer and further between if you are an average joe. Most of what we do here is only particularly interesting to us (analyze, predict, assess, etc); certainly it is not to the masses.
JR5
Other Christian
We went through 40 years of a declining interest rate environment (1980-2020). It is a simple formula: when rates go down, asset values go up. But rates are now going up (and hence, asset values go down) into an environment with the largest amount of debt in human history. As such, we are entirely mentally unprepared for what is coming, and people should really make an effort to live well below their means. See this post for more details: https://neofeudalreview.substack.com/p/the-era-of-empty-secular-mass-consumption
Sort of. Definitely bond prices do, but not necessarily assets. Though they have, you are correct, in that period because of Cantillon through government borrowing and also more loans initiated for many reasons. That's the real reason for asset prices going up though: credit expansion and expanding money supply (which then seeks real stuff). The reason I'm being technical here is because we can easily see a scenario now when (Fed funds/overnight) rates are cut, but natural rates actually go up on the longer end bonds, which would set up different scenarios entirely. I'll check out your article to see if it talks about that.
What if you are particularly well positioned as a saver, in no debt, owning real assets? Will it be a dream scenario in a sense? Will it be socially dangerous so as to take away from the relatively enhanced position you're in? Will you root for the zombies to check out to fantasy, drugs, games, etc so as not to have to deal with violence? If I'm honest, and I am, I've thought about these things.
The issue of public debt is looming, unavoidable. As was discussed above, Japanese path likely is not possible. So here we have reserve currency sitting on the mountain of rapidly growing debt with no clear way out. These was research published recently that concluded that economic expansion will not be a realistically possible way out of this 33+T mountain of debt. A guy who is maxing out his credit cards buying up more and more stuff might feel like life is grand (and hope to discharge the debts at the end), this is exactly what's happening. Things can be papered over for a while. Every American automatically owes around half a million, which includes unfunded liabilities. In my opinion stuff like that does not get resolved without major war or real collapse at the end. I had experienced this kind of stuff overseas first hand and all I know when things hit the fan it often happens around 4am on capital city time and no time to get ready.
Consumerism is a pillar of this current system. Without it, the system would experience rapid collapse - before something new could emerge. Of couse they are trying to sell more junk, brainwashing, building warehouses, papering over, pumping insecurity in people who don't own this and that- without papering over, people would start buying less, out of caution, which woud trigger collapse or depression. The whole system is like a bicycle in motion, it has no internal stability and only can exist when the hype is flowing and people are buying more and more stuff (exponential growth). But it's limited by finite resources available, declining productivity and technological limitations (while population keeps growing) and the debt expansion is limited by interest. In my view there will be a point of major reckoning and it won't be a hidden crisis
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What's the point? Inflation and bond market issues is what I say. An attempt at a reset is obviously what the attempt will be, but what does that look like is the question. Another question would be how soon it really sets in to people's minds that they are not going to get the things they thought they'd get, that they were promised.
Forgot to mention Japan's net investment position, it's positive and over 3.3 trillion in USD, 1/3 of their total money supply so they invest outside a lot, diverting printed money from theur debt monetizing away from own economy/ from inflating prices inside Japan.
In the US, it's negative -18T, almost equal to M2 money supply, tons of money flows into America inflating prices.
In Japan, bank loans are only 5% of money supply, in the US it's 60%, all the bank created money go straight into economy inflating things. This is why Japan could maintain negative rates minimizing own debt servicing expenses, there was no need to cool down credit bubble by high rates.
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For default or just quick devaluation there would need to be some big manufactured crisis to justify things. A war or some new "virus", and/or mass banks collapse in recession, I think.