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Bitcoin and Crypto Thread

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Was going to try to dca on alph but it shit back up. Ended up dca on quant, kaspa abd sei . I’m staying cautiously optimistic

I told myself if avax drops under $20/coin I’d buy big but it looks like that may not happen. Btc would have to drop a ton more.
 
Blade Runner said:
What's up with stacks? What are the top plays by Cynllo et al?
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Not sure about it as a good entry at this price. It was $0.20 about a year ago. It was at over $2. It was a good entry for a lot of last year. I want to find time to try an asses, which coin of the #30-60 coins might have a chance of a run at being in the top 10. Sui is looking possible, at a glance. In short, what will be the SOL of 2025? For the last two cycles a major L1 has emerged. There will likely be another this year.

The top two that are good for entry about now are still ALPH + TOPIA.

ALPH is around $100m cap and keeps attracting high level influencers as evangelists. This is organic. They aren't paying anyone to do it. And they are promoting it as it is a technically strong and still relatively low cap coin. In short it merges the good properties of BTC, ETH and SOL. While fixing certain security issues. It's proof of work, but uses a lot less energy than BTC. People are billing it as 2025's KDA, which is inferior to ALPH. KDA went to about $7b in 2021.

TOPIA is about $60m cap or so. It also keeps attracting promoters, but not to the extent of ALPH. I think it's quite far to say the only question to its price is what number will be in front of the billion in its cap.

There are a few others I have thrown in above, but not with any particular conviction. e.g. enqAI, which is more of a moonshot.

As for performance of plays. There are only three I've really shilled here. Performance from posting:

ALPH: $1.00 -> $2.55 ATH; $2.00 now.
TOPIA: $0.06 -> $0.115 ATH; $0.08 now.
AYIN: $1.59 -> $18.55 ATH; $12 now. (not worth buying now, just buy ALPH).

All have had pullbacks and could go lower, but probably not much. I would just buy ALPH + TOPIA and hold. What's the chances they will be worth less than the dollars you bought them with in 3, 6, 9, 12, 18 months? This is all anyone should have been saying to themselves for the last 14 months.

TOPIA is best bought from its Uniswap pool (ETH) and ALPH can be bought from a number of exchanges. MEXC is a good choice (use a VPN if in the US). ALPH can also be bought from Uniswap and then bridged to its native chain.

There are a few core categories of coin this season:

L1s: these have been the best performers and you've largely missed the train in huge gains at this point, also saturated. The only lower caps ones I'd look at are ALPH, QUBIC + TRIAS. Particularly the first two.
L2: also largely sailed, but there are a bunch of new ones coming through you can look at
AI: TAO is dominating here and already about #40, ROOT is a lower cap gigaproject that could also float to similar levels; enqAI an microcap moonshot; a number of mid to low cap ones to look at like OLAS + Tau (not TAO)
Games: Still a much more open race. TOPIA is the best bet here IMO, since games you want to buy have not been released.
Computing power: RNDR has boomed and not worth buying now, not sure what a lower cap bet to boom might be
Real world assets: like tokenising real estate, not sure on this sector, but a lot of talk on it
Privacy: ZEPH, just bombed about 40-50%, worth a position.

Probably some others I am forgetting. I would go for picking one or two coins for each category. Asking yourself if the coin could conceivably be in the top 100 (if its a low cap); or if it can have massive moves up from its current position, if it is in the top 100.



BTC looks like its going down more, but its being indecisive. It's been very keen on $42k. See @expectation's post yesterday.
 
Blade Runner said:
Unless you can somehow get a 50-100x, why would you bother with anything but BTC?
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Just a symptom of fiat mind set. Gambling, scamming, investing and rent seeking all increase during monetary debasement. When Money Dies, by Adam Ferguson, explores an account by a British diplomat who lived in Weimar Germany as their currency was being debased. For most of the German population, it made more sense to engage in these non-productive behaviors than to work, since work was only rewarded with essentially slave chits. Most weren't conscious of why, or what was actually happening, they just intuitively knew that gambling or investing at least had a chance of saving their wealth, while holding the money did not.
 
Blade Runner said:
Unless you can somehow get a 50-100x, why would you bother with anything but BTC?
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Bitcoin is probably a 3X from here. I have gone full-time crypto now, and with the more exposure, I can better see the trends - already mentioned. Again we see the biggest gains for fresh new L1s. Anyone who bought pretty much any fresh new L1 a year ago is up 10X+. Not much research needed. Then buy the prime meme coin and DEX if you can get in on virgin lows. Sometimes they might start at a high price.

There are some other sectors above, and there will be major gains in those sectors. The L1 sector has already run a lot, since that is the meat of the market. Gaming is the sector that will likely give the best returns from here.

There will obviously be a lot of coins that will outperform BTC, as there has been. I think any new L1 that has legs will easily outperform it from here, and the top coins in all the above classes.

My alt bags far outweigh my former BTC + ETH bags. No plans to buy them back in this bull.

chance vought said:
Just a symptom of fiat mind set. Gambling, scamming, investing and rent seeking all increase during monetary debasement. When Money Dies, by Adam Ferguson, explores an account by a British diplomat who lived in Weimar Germany as their currency was being debased. For most of the German population, it made more sense to engage in these non-productive behaviors than to work, since work was only rewarded with essentially slave chits. Most weren't conscious of why, or what was actually happening, they just intuitively knew that gambling or investing at least had a chance of saving their wealth, while holding the money did not.
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This is a big gambling pit, but this gambling money also goes into development. The new chains are borrowing code, ideas from the older ones. New Defi borrows from the older ones and adds more. A good chunk of this gambling goes into trial and error of finding things that work. Still very early days.


Seems a good take.

 
scorpion said:
Full-time crypto trading for your income?

Balls of steel. Shine on, you crazy diamond!
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I still have a normal income. But it's residual. I mostly just hold. But there is a lot to keep up with to scope out where things are at. I've only taken a big trade on this leg down as its charts are showing a downtrend on a long view.
 
@Cynllo and a handful of people on here can pull off an alt-coin trading strategy. I don't think many else can. Yes, the rewards are potentially greater than BTC, but the risk is orders of magnitude higher. I would put the chances of BTC's success around 80%. The risk/reward ratio is off the charts. Playing the lottery has a higher potential reward, but the risk/reward ratio is far lower. Same with equities. The risk/reward is far lower, because they are used as a money substitute, and have a price that does not reflect their actual risk vs returns.

Now just imagine we are 50 years in the future, fiat is dead and we have a Bitcoin standard. Everyone holds BTC, or has a partial claim on a UTXO. There are no new buyers of BTC, so there isn't a flood of new buyers every 4 years, and it isn't a black hole, sucking up all the negative yielding bonds, overpriced equities, and other money substitutes. It's already done that. Yet still, holding Bitcoin will make everyone wealthier, because of increase in efficiency and human knowledge.

In the last 70 years, the best performing fiat currency, the USD, has increased in base supply by an average 7% per year. Using the rule of 72, prices for goods and services should have doubled every 10 years...if you don't take into account the increase in productivity due to technology. That technological deflation has kept the increase in prices to a more politically palatable 2-3% per year. That means that productivity is responsible for nearly 5% per year deflation. Historically, technological progress was around 2% per year in antiquity. That is why gold had such a stable value for such a long time - the inflation rate of gold has historically been 1.5% - 2%, almost perfectly matching the increases in productivity during much of human history, prior to the industrial revolution. 1oz of gold buying a fine suit of clothes in antiquity, and in the present day.

Now, imagine a 0% inflation rate. Human productivity increases at 5% per year (or maybe even greater, since it started to go exponential during the industrial revolution, up until the age of fiat.) Now what money you save, will buy twice as much in just 14 years, and 4x in 28 years. I've noticed a tiny sliver of what this would be like in one product: Televisions. When I was in college, a 40" plasma TV was $20k. I bought my first flat screen around 2013, 65", $1k. 5 years later, and a 65" was $500. Today they can be had sub $300. Now what if that was every single product and service: food, healthcare, transportation, energy...all becoming cheaper every year, forever.

People delay purchases, and scrutinize what they will do and buy much more carefully. Less resources are squandered on consumerism and people take care of things and the planet, rather than consuming it as fast as possible, like workers in Weimar, buying everything that isn't nailed down, whether they need it or not.

Some pages back, someone asked if they were "too late" to Bitcoin. If it does what I think it will, its never going to be too late. Even when its fully monetized, it will grow in wealth at the same rate as civilization. But its nowhere near that point yet. What part of the population has a significant part of their savings in it? A fraction of 1%, I'm not sure if its 0.1% or 0.001%. I've only met one person who had at least 10% net worth in BTC...

The other reason to buy it is to destroy the state and the fiat ponzi. Every time you sell fiat and by Bitcoin, you are killing the beast. Money that is not in the banking system not only helps destroy the currency faster, it also reduces the level of control the state can exert (Canadian truckers and donors.) You are short selling fiat. Yes, buying real estate and equities is how normies short the dollar, but those can be used as a tool of control, taxed, and confiscated. The state can stop you from collecting rent (its a national emergency!), raise the taxes by printing more money (increasing the property "value"), or just take it when they get desperate enough.
 
chance vought said:
In the last 70 years, the best performing fiat currency, the USD, has increased in base supply by an average 7% per year. Using the rule of 72, prices for goods and services should have doubled every 10 years...if you don't take into account the increase in productivity due to technology. That technological deflation has kept the increase in prices to a more politically palatable 2-3% per year. That means that productivity is responsible for nearly 5% per year deflation. Historically, technological progress was around 2% per year in antiquity. That is why gold had such a stable value for such a long time - the inflation rate of gold has historically been 1.5% - 2%, almost perfectly matching the increases in productivity during much of human history, prior to the industrial revolution. 1oz of gold buying a fine suit of clothes in antiquity, and in the present day.
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Important points.
chance vought said:
Some pages back, someone asked if they were "too late" to Bitcoin. If it does what I think it will, its never going to be too late. Even when its fully monetized, it will grow in wealth at the same rate as civilization. But its nowhere near that point yet. What part of the population has a significant part of their savings in it? A fraction of 1%, I'm not sure if its 0.1% or 0.001%. I've only met one person who had at least 10% net worth in BTC...
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Perhaps the most important point of all. It's never too late. Kill the beast.
 
chance vought said:
@Cynllo and a handful of people on here can pull off an alt-coin trading strategy. I don't think many else can. Yes, the rewards are potentially greater than BTC, but the risk is orders of magnitude higher. I would put the chances of BTC's success around 80%. .
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Yes and no. Btc is a relatively conservative and safe coin to buy and hodl.

Alt coins have a much higher peak but a lower low. So long as you sell incrementally on the way up to a bull runs peak you should not care about the low because you will have already sold everything by the time the rug pulls

Just do not sit back and hodl forever with your alt coins and take your profits on the way up to the bull run peak.

For example when I see btc hit an all time high and stay there, I’ll be selling a good chunk of my alt coins just to bank sone profit and start watching all of my alts daily. Any time I see one of them do a big pump I sell half of what I own of that coin. Then when the rug finally pulls I’ll be like “cool I already got out”.

If you are going with the mindset “hodl forever” you will be holding another 4-5 years until the next cycle. And some if these sh!t coins will never come back . It’s only difficult if you make it difficult.

The one coin I will hang on a bit of it to the next cycle is kaspa it’s a coin I really believe in long term and could really blow up . Or I may just sell all of it and buy some back in the bear market . Not sure yet
 
Are there any paper trades of esoteric coins (I don't think there are)? It seems I have to use miners to leverage a BTC rally into next year ... for the crappy fiat game where they still take 20% from me, unless I can wash that with losses, such as I have from shorting the market last year lol
 
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