Bitcoin and Crypto Thread

Gold has returned north of 25% over the past couple of years, so I am thinking of starting a company called GoldStrategy. I will issue shares (GSTR) and use the money raised by these shares to buy gold. I won't do anything with the gold, I just plan to hold it indefinitely while it appreciates in value. My investors will thus own this gold indirectly through owning shares of GSTR.

To buy additional gold, I will then issue preferred shares called StrikeGold (STKG), which will pay an annual 10% dividend. Since my gold does not actually generate any USD yield, the money to pay the STKG dividend will have to come from issuing additional STKG shares, or by issuing common shares of GSTR. As long as gold continues to appreciate in price, I should be able to continue attracting investors to buy my GSTR and STKG shares, allowing me to keep buying more and more gold, which itself is continually appreciating in value. This is known as the "infinite money glitch", although critics are quick to label it a Ponzi scheme.

The only risk with my plan will be if investors decide they are no longer interested in buying my GSTR shares. This might occur if the price of gold stops increasing for awhile. If I am unable to issue new shares of GSTR, I will be forced to issue new preferred shares, these with an even more attractive dividend yield. I will call these UltraGold (ULTG) and they will carry an astonishing 25% dividend. Of course, I will have no way of paying this dividend except by using the money I received from selling the original shares. In other words, I will sell a share of ULTG for $100, then use $10 of it to pay my STRKG dividend, and $25 to pay my ULTG dividend. I'm then left with $65 to buy more gold. Then when next year rolls around, I have to come up with another $35 to pay my dividends, so I have to sell more shares, incurring more dividend obligations and/or diluting my GSTR shareholders. Eventually, I will get myself in real trouble by having more obligations than I can pay. I will then be forced to liquidate all of my gold on the open market. And since I own more gold than anyone on the planet, the price of gold will tank.

Everything I wrote above exactly describes Strategy, except with gold in place of Bitcoin. The company is a Ponzi scheme and a ticking time bomb, and as chance vought himself admitted, anyone who understands and believes in Bitcoin would rather just own Bitcoin directly anyway. Michael Saylor rolled the dice on Bitcoin as a last resort to save his flailing SaaS company, and it's kept them afloat thus far. But eventually the music is going to stop for Strategy, and the fallout will be brutal for its shareholders, including the preferred shareholders (which, by the way, anyone considering buying STRC or their other preferreds should be aware that those dividends are completely discretionary and can be cancelled by management at any time, an eventuality that would tank the stock price. These are NOT risk-free products on the level of a money market account - which is what they are misleadingly being sold as - and could implode in price very quickly if investors lose confidence in Strategy. Caveat emptor to the max with this company.
Yes, the same strategy can be used using gold as the asset. However gold only appreciates on long time frames at 8%/yr, the same rate of fiat debasement. You could offer 2% dividends, and remain solvent, but nothing the market would be interested in. That is why bitcoin is the only viable asset to do this with...it increases in value 4x faster than the dividend payments.

Individuals can do the same thing with bitcoin. Take out a fiat loan, buy bitcoin, then take out a new loan to buy more bitcoin using less bitcoin as collateral as the price increases, rinse and repeat. Its infinite because fiat has to mathematically debase. The loan gets cheaper while bitcoin increases in value.
 
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That is why bitcoin is the only viable asset to do this with...it increases in value 4x faster than the dividend payments.
I don't think this calculation is accurate. To the extent that you can make it work by some tortured math, I don't think it will continue to be accurate going forward. Bitcoin's YoY returns look super impressive if you start the series pre-2017 bull run. They look much more subdued if you start from a few years ago. Since Strategy initiated these products, Bitcoin's return has not been anything to write home about, especially considering its volatility.
 
I don't think this calculation is accurate. To the extent that you can make it work by some tortured math, I don't think it will continue to be accurate going forward. Bitcoin's YoY returns look super impressive if you start the series pre-2017 bull run. They look much more subdued if you start from a few years ago. Since Strategy initiated these products, Bitcoin's return has not been anything to write home about, especially considering its volatility.
since Strategy started their strategy in 2020, the average rate of bitcoin return in fiat is 38% annually CAGR

I know, short term price action, bitcoin is dead, except its not...like the phoenix it rises over and over again...first it was ETFs, then Trump...what will be the hindsight justification for bitcoin's next run?
 
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How can the Bitcoin network itself be an argument for buying MSTR? If Bitcoin has all these wonderful properties, why would I buy MSTR shares, which just give me more overhead expense as well as dilution risk?
It's leveraged. There are many reasons to not solely be completely invested in any one asset, which would be a longer post but it's obvious.
Since Strategy initiated these products, Bitcoin's return has not been anything to write home about, especially considering its volatility.
Ok.
like the phoenix it rises over and over again...first it was ETFs, then Trump...what will be the hindsight justification for bitcoin's next run?
Yes. Let's say we bottom and then rise in 2027 to 180k. Will there be any scorpions and urkels coming back to apologize or post then?

Do they not see that this keeps happening?
 
a couple good rips

After watching Lebanese banks steal his life savings overnight, Tony Yazbeck went from cybersecurity veteran to full-on Bitcoin sovereignty advocate. Now as co-founder of The Bitcoin Way, he’s on a mission to make sure what happened to him doesn’t happen to you. \
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This conversation gets real, we’re talking bank collapses, self-custody, opting out of the system entirely, and why proper Bitcoin education might be the most important thing you do in 2026. \


Western Civilisation is collapsing, and the exits are being bricked up.

In this episode, Balaji Srinivasan (Author, The Network State) delivers a clear warning: the US and UK are approaching a sovereign debt default, and the "Berlin Wall" of capital controls is coming to trap your wealth inside.

We discuss why "staying is surrendering," the rise of the "Grey Tribe" (Tech) against the State, and his 3-step survival guide for the middle class: Liquidate, Emigrate, Accelerate.
 
Urkel is pretending like this isn't the case.

You love to accuse people of things that you yourself engage in. You are the one pretending. You pretend that the current moment is not the current moment and that it is actually the future which you superimpose onto the here and now.

Future predicting, in the way that you engage in it, in some Hollyweird Blade Runner-esque dystopian future doom posting is more akin to tarot card reading than Biblical prophecy because of your sole focus on the future with regards to money and sex (i.e young women).

Currently, at least in my life today, nothing is happening. Just filled my gas tank up at $2.52 a gallon (1990's level pricing), every stop light worked on the way to the station, and they accepted cash for the gas (paid in cash because they don't accept bitcoin).

Oh, and one more thing... username checks out.
 
I don't think this calculation is accurate. To the extent that you can make it work by some tortured math, I don't think it will continue to be accurate going forward. Bitcoin's YoY returns look super impressive if you start the series pre-2017 bull run. They look much more subdued if you start from a few years ago. Since Strategy initiated these products, Bitcoin's return has not been anything to write home about, especially considering its volatility.
Yes the preferreds are very new and have only been out a year (STRC only a few months). I think it will take some time in the market to prove out, for sure. All this stuff is new, and subject to some uncertainty.

There were definitely some unforseen consequences from the convertible bonds, which is why the strategy pivoted to prefs, along with the vastly reduced friction, time and cost of issuing preferred stock VS convertible bonds. The preferred stocks essentially act as bonds, but with issuance akin to the US Treasury bond auction - hit the print button and boom, more issuance, instead of the convertible notes which required a back -and-forth between potential buyers and reams of paperwork.
 
How can the Bitcoin network itself be an argument for buying MSTR? If Bitcoin has all these wonderful properties, why would I buy MSTR shares, which just give me more overhead expense as well as dilution risk? To anyone who fully believes in Bitcoin, Strategy's offerings should be totally unattractive. And if you don't believe in Bitcoin (and thus don't believe that it's price will continually appreciate into infinity) then why would you want to buy products backed by Bitcoin to begin with?

I basically see Strategy as the Coyote from the Roadrunner cartoons, who would run off the side of a cliff and float in mid-air...until he looked down. The bottom could fall out of this company at any moment, because it functionally has no reason to exist. Its common shares will be continually diluted and its preferreds are blatant Ponzi products. At some point investors are going to wake up and realize they've gotten into bed with a total pig of a company, and the stampede for the exits will be legendary. What happens after that to price of Bitcoin also won't be good for HODLers.
Originally the point of MSTR came from regulatory arbitrage. Funds that had mandates that could only buy stocks (e.g. mutual funds) but not ETFs or cryptocurrencies could get access to Bitcoin by wrapping into a stock. And bond investors who’s mandates (bond funds) only allow them to invest in bonds can get access to bitcoin through convertible bonds issued by MSTR.
 
How can the Bitcoin network itself be an argument for buying MSTR? If Bitcoin has all these wonderful properties, why would I buy MSTR shares, which just give me more overhead expense as well as dilution risk? To anyone who fully believes in Bitcoin, Strategy's offerings should be totally unattractive. And if you don't believe in Bitcoin (and thus don't believe that it's price will continually appreciate into infinity) then why would you want to buy products backed by Bitcoin to begin with?
Becauae STRC takes out the one problem a lot of people have with bitcoin: volatility.

Strip the volatility from bitcoin, and you can offer the market a high performing financial asset without the volatility of bitcoin.

Like taking crude oil and refining it into light, medium, and heavy products. You can take a $70 barrel of oil and turn it into Jet fuel, gasoline, HFO, and sell them all to the market for different uses. A jet engine can probably be made to run on crude oil, but it will run better with jet fuel.

STRC, STRK, and STRD offer different volatility for different temporal use cases.
 
Originally the point of MSTR came from regulatory arbitrage. Funds that had mandates that could only buy stocks (e.g. mutual funds) but not ETFs or cryptocurrencies could get access to Bitcoin by wrapping into a stock. And bond investors who’s mandates (bond funds) only allow them to invest in bonds can get access to bitcoin through convertible bonds issued by MSTR.
Indeed, I'm aware of of this dynamic. But with Bitcoin ETFs it no longer applies. So why would anyone buy MSTR at this point?
Becauae STRC takes out the one problem a lot of people have with bitcoin: volatility.
Ok, let's assume for the sake of argument that STRC is a great product and set that aside for now. It still doesn't answer the question: why would anyone buy MSTR? With the introduction of the preferreds, Strategy has basically turned MSTR common shareholders into financial cuckolds: they are doomed to be diluted over and over, not only to raise the capital necessary to buy Bitcoin, but now they're also being diluted to pay the preferred dividends! They can literally never expect to get ahead of the dilution. Any price gains Bitcoin makes will be immediately matched with MSTR share issues. The concepts of "Bitcoin yield" and "Bitcoin per share" are utterly nonsensical. When the scheme eventually implodes, MSTR shareholders will be left holding the bag, and will find out the hard way that common equity stands last in line when making bankruptcy claims. All that Bitcoin they thought they "owned"? It will be sold and dispersed to creditors and preferred shareholders. Their actual "Bitcoin per share"? A big fat zero.

The funny thing is that Saylor will ultimately skate away scot-free. His scheme is perfectly legal, and he can credibly claim (due to his tireless public evangelism) that he was a true believer in Bitcoin and not an unscrupulous conman. The difference between him and the average MSTR-owning dope being, of course, that he has wisely diversified away from Bitcoin by cashing out hundreds of millions of dollars of MSTR stock for himself.
 
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