Bitcoin and Crypto Thread

Gold has returned north of 25% over the past couple of years, so I am thinking of starting a company called GoldStrategy. I will issue shares (GSTR) and use the money raised by these shares to buy gold. I won't do anything with the gold, I just plan to hold it indefinitely while it appreciates in value. My investors will thus own this gold indirectly through owning shares of GSTR.

To buy additional gold, I will then issue preferred shares called StrikeGold (STKG), which will pay an annual 10% dividend. Since my gold does not actually generate any USD yield, the money to pay the STKG dividend will have to come from issuing additional STKG shares, or by issuing common shares of GSTR. As long as gold continues to appreciate in price, I should be able to continue attracting investors to buy my GSTR and STKG shares, allowing me to keep buying more and more gold, which itself is continually appreciating in value. This is known as the "infinite money glitch", although critics are quick to label it a Ponzi scheme.

The only risk with my plan will be if investors decide they are no longer interested in buying my GSTR shares. This might occur if the price of gold stops increasing for awhile. If I am unable to issue new shares of GSTR, I will be forced to issue new preferred shares, these with an even more attractive dividend yield. I will call these UltraGold (ULTG) and they will carry an astonishing 25% dividend. Of course, I will have no way of paying this dividend except by using the money I received from selling the original shares. In other words, I will sell a share of ULTG for $100, then use $10 of it to pay my STRKG dividend, and $25 to pay my ULTG dividend. I'm then left with $65 to buy more gold. Then when next year rolls around, I have to come up with another $35 to pay my dividends, so I have to sell more shares, incurring more dividend obligations and/or diluting my GSTR shareholders. Eventually, I will get myself in real trouble by having more obligations than I can pay. I will then be forced to liquidate all of my gold on the open market. And since I own more gold than anyone on the planet, the price of gold will tank.

Everything I wrote above exactly describes Strategy, except with gold in place of Bitcoin. The company is a Ponzi scheme and a ticking time bomb, and as chance vought himself admitted, anyone who understands and believes in Bitcoin would rather just own Bitcoin directly anyway. Michael Saylor rolled the dice on Bitcoin as a last resort to save his flailing SaaS company, and it's kept them afloat thus far. But eventually the music is going to stop for Strategy, and the fallout will be brutal for its shareholders, including the preferred shareholders (which, by the way, anyone considering buying STRC or their other preferreds should be aware that those dividends are completely discretionary and can be cancelled by management at any time, an eventuality that would tank the stock price. These are NOT risk-free products on the level of a money market account - which is what they are misleadingly being sold as - and could implode in price very quickly if investors lose confidence in Strategy. Caveat emptor to the max with this company.
Yes, the same strategy can be used using gold as the asset. However gold only appreciates on long time frames at 8%/yr, the same rate of fiat debasement. You could offer 2% dividends, and remain solvent, but nothing the market would be interested in. That is why bitcoin is the only viable asset to do this with...it increases in value 4x faster than the dividend payments.

Individuals can do the same thing with bitcoin. Take out a fiat loan, buy bitcoin, then take out a new loan to buy more bitcoin using less bitcoin as collateral as the price increases, rinse and repeat. Its infinite because fiat has to mathematically debase. The loan gets cheaper while bitcoin increases in value.
 
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That is why bitcoin is the only viable asset to do this with...it increases in value 4x faster than the dividend payments.
I don't think this calculation is accurate. To the extent that you can make it work by some tortured math, I don't think it will continue to be accurate going forward. Bitcoin's YoY returns look super impressive if you start the series pre-2017 bull run. They look much more subdued if you start from a few years ago. Since Strategy initiated these products, Bitcoin's return has not been anything to write home about, especially considering its volatility.
 
I don't think this calculation is accurate. To the extent that you can make it work by some tortured math, I don't think it will continue to be accurate going forward. Bitcoin's YoY returns look super impressive if you start the series pre-2017 bull run. They look much more subdued if you start from a few years ago. Since Strategy initiated these products, Bitcoin's return has not been anything to write home about, especially considering its volatility.
since Strategy started their strategy in 2020, the average rate of bitcoin return in fiat is 38% annually CAGR

I know, short term price action, bitcoin is dead, except its not...like the phoenix it rises over and over again...first it was ETFs, then Trump...what will be the hindsight justification for bitcoin's next run?
 
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How can the Bitcoin network itself be an argument for buying MSTR? If Bitcoin has all these wonderful properties, why would I buy MSTR shares, which just give me more overhead expense as well as dilution risk?
It's leveraged. There are many reasons to not solely be completely invested in any one asset, which would be a longer post but it's obvious.
Since Strategy initiated these products, Bitcoin's return has not been anything to write home about, especially considering its volatility.
Ok.
like the phoenix it rises over and over again...first it was ETFs, then Trump...what will be the hindsight justification for bitcoin's next run?
Yes. Let's say we bottom and then rise in 2027 to 180k. Will there be any scorpions and urkels coming back to apologize or post then?

Do they not see that this keeps happening?
 
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