You sure? It’s dumping . And probably just as well, we needed it
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You sure? It’s dumping . And probably just as well, we needed it
Yes, choppy, meeting the support line at 62. I'm in again, thanks for getting scared boys. Uncle Larry and I will take the gift
Even during this little dip back to the low 60's, the overall ETF holdings only go in one direction: Up. And that includes the ongoing GBTC selloff, which makes a lot of sense since their fees are 1.5% compared to 0.2%-0.25% for most of the new ETFs.
Also, curious what others think of this idea:
One major BTC buying opportunity is likely to come if or when bad news comes out around Tether. It's got a yuuuge market cap, it's rather opaque, and seems like a house of cards to me. It's surely been used to pump bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, but shouldn't interact at all with the fundamentals of bitcoin.
To be honest I don't get why people really even want Tether, except for a bit of a transaction mechanism into bitcoin(or altcoins/shitcoins).
Also, curious what others think of this idea:
One major BTC buying opportunity is likely to come if or when bad news comes out around Tether. It's got a yuuuge market cap, it's rather opaque, and seems like a house of cards to me. It's surely been used to pump bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, but shouldn't interact at all with the fundamentals of bitcoin.
To be honest I don't get why people really even want Tether, except for a bit of a transaction mechanism into bitcoin(or altcoins/shitcoins).
The third world wants tether to have access to dollars, when the local fiat is hyper inflating.
Tether will never sell their Bitcoin. Tether has more backing than any so called legitimate bank does. Their business model is genius. They buy treasury bonds with customer inputs to back the tether, collect all the interest for themselves, and use the interest to buy BTC.
This is similar to how the loadable Starbucks rewards card works. Starbucks customers load money onto it, and the company invests it in bonds and collects all the interest for themselves, on hundreds of millions of dollars.
If they aren’t solvent, they soon will be, because it has to be the most profitable business in the world per employee. No reason to scam or rugpull, they are making an insane amount of money. It’s the golden goose.
I don’t think they will fail, or ever sell any of their BTC.
I suppose then, risk areas for Tether seem like:
1. The bolded part isn't how it actually works, it's just how they say it works, but they are fraudulent. Seems to me it could really go either way.
2. The company, despite having few employees, has some amount of expenses/obligations(are they also lending money out?), and then there's a bank run on tether. Too big of a volume of people sell one day/week, it loses the peg, and simultaneously has to deal with expenses obligations.
"normal" banks are audited and have capital requirements and etc, and they still fail sometimes, like Silicon Valley Bank. SVB even tried to play it safe with lots of bonds! How do you know Tether is as solvent as they say they are?
I don’t know, and wouldn’t own it, but I suspect they are much better capitalized than a traditional bank. They don’t create any loans out of nothing, they only take deposits.
”Normal“ banks have no reserve requirements since 2020. It is literally 0% reserves required.
Effective March 26, 2020, the Board reduced reserve requirement ratios on all net transaction accounts to zero percent, eliminating reserve requirements for all depository institutions. The annual indexation of the reserve requirement exemption amount and the low reserve tranche for 2023 is required by statute but will not affect depository institutions' reserve requirements, which will remain zero.
Of course the government will just print the money, so I guess its still guaranteed.
Melker always talks about how Cantor Fitzgerald has verified their assets, and I've also seen multiple reports of their CEO confirming their assets. I think Scott also is correct when he says that if they had troubles, they are past those and perhaps got away with something, but it matters not one iota at this point, as they are better capitalized than most banks, if not all, so they don't need to think or prove anything about the past. Funny enough, it's another point that bear Mike Green got facialized on.
Think about how amazing it is that this slow but sure, cyclical move up over years is perfect for something taking over the whole enchilada. The people who are too lazy to actually see what's going on and who want to believe X can get their confirmation bias, while the math is incontrovertible, and zooming out it only goes up and to the right over time - which is what all of us who understand what is going on expect, and will get. It's quite amazing as a human social and crowd experiment, as well.
Stable coins are used to buy alt coins .
Also if you want to talk about a practical use of crypto, if I was a working man in the third world I’d want to turn my wages into stable coin immediately to avoid hyperinflation of the native currency then spend the money as needed to buy whatever I need
But it’s true none of these coins are what I would consider “safe” with the possible exception of Bitcoin
As for how low can btc drop? It can dip more but at some point the ETFs will just buy aggressively because they want to accumulate more to make more money etc
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Conspiracy theory:
Are those ETFs mostly institutional investors? Means Bitcoin is getting centralized and price could be manipulated by a few. An “easy” target for small hats.
Reason for the dip? People taking profits since the upside lost momentum.
They’re also mentioning FED rates being decided today. Inflation is not under control so they might have to keep rates “high” for longer. If they cut, it means people will flock to riskier assets in the hope of maintaining their purchasing power.
Are those ETFs mostly institutional investors? Means Bitcoin is getting centralized and price could be manipulated by a few. An “easy” target for small hats.
Reason for the dip? People taking profits since the upside lost momentum.
They’re also mentioning FED rates being decided today. Inflation is not under control so they might have to keep rates “high” for longer. If they cut, it means people will flock to riskier assets in the hope of maintaining their purchasing power.
Do homework. Check out Bitcoin University, he has very interesting videos.
As I understand, btc whales sell part of their btc to buy eth for gas fees and buy large cap coins and alt coins.
That is what happens during one of the big btc dips (we typically get the biggest dip just after the halving in past cycles. The argument could be made That ETFs change everything and the January dip to 38k was the big halving dip of this cycle .) but we won’t know that until we get to the halving and if we get a dip, how big will the dip be etc?
As for how the ETFs change anything we may simply see less extreme dips but too early to say for sure
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I think the cycle is different in that you might see some degree of all of the above, but my thesis has been that BTC dominance is rearing its head and any movements in the others will be dampened in general, and BTC will increase its lead over time, even if it doesn't moon as much, or takes steps back here and there.
We have not had btc go above the ath of 69k and stay there for any length of time. We saw it go to 73m then dip back down to 60.5. When it goes over 69m and stays there we can say that we have entered the bull run.
In the past we always got a massive correction around the halving.
With blackrock manipulation I think we can safely say that most (90-95%) of retail investors will get wrecked, it just remains to be seen how and when exactly .
Edit and that happens every cycle anyways
In the past we always got a massive correction around the halving.
With blackrock manipulation I think we can safely say that most (90-95%) of retail investors will get wrecked, it just remains to be seen how and when exactly .
Edit and that happens every cycle anyways
Maybe a lot of new retail traders. Most retail investors will or do have yuge gains alreaady.
Literally me and my wife with crypto ever since I bought in a few years ago.
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Raoul Pal: We Are All Debt Slaves
In Part 1 of our How to Unf*ck Your Future series, Raoul digs into the charts to explain our current economic reality and how it’s all shaped by the Three D’s: debt, demographics, and deflation. But don’t worry, it’s not all doom and gloom, as Raoul explains that the next six years might contain the answers for how we can all unf*ck our futures. Recorded on March 5, 2024.I feel like to help Bitcoin adoption somebody should create a company to that issues physical notes and coins redeemable in Bitcoin (satoshis) like how paper money was originally redeemable in physical gold or silver.
The reason for this is that a lot of old people (70+) are not fully comfortable with digital forms of money and still prefer phyuscial cash also in many third world countries a lot of people are still un-banked and also many people have limited access to internet (either through lack of credit/data on their cell phone or bad internet reception in certain places especially smaller towns/villages). Not to mention the privacy benefits of physical currency. I feel an initiative like this would help a lot and it would also improve Bitcoins uitility as a medium of exchange. Of course there are the usual risks involved for this in terms of fraud, counterfeiting, money laundering, fractional reserve banking, centralization, etc. But overall I feel as a concept it would be a net benefit.
The reason for this is that a lot of old people (70+) are not fully comfortable with digital forms of money and still prefer phyuscial cash also in many third world countries a lot of people are still un-banked and also many people have limited access to internet (either through lack of credit/data on their cell phone or bad internet reception in certain places especially smaller towns/villages). Not to mention the privacy benefits of physical currency. I feel an initiative like this would help a lot and it would also improve Bitcoins uitility as a medium of exchange. Of course there are the usual risks involved for this in terms of fraud, counterfeiting, money laundering, fractional reserve banking, centralization, etc. But overall I feel as a concept it would be a net benefit.