Bitcoin and Crypto Thread

“[The Manhattan Project] is the biggest fool thing we have ever done.
The bomb will never go off, and I speak as an expert in explosives.”
Admiral William Leahy, chief military advisor to President Truman, 1945
 
chance vought said:
“[The Manhattan Project] is the biggest fool thing we have ever done.
The bomb will never go off, and I speak as an expert in explosives.”
Admiral William Leahy, chief military advisor to President Truman, 1945
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Was he claiming that it wouldn't work, or that we would never actually use it?

The funny thing about Nobel is that (regarding usage) he claimed that no one would fight wars any longer because dynamite would be too dangerous to use and would be too destructive. It's sorta funny that no matter the tech, it seems to always come out.
 
Blade Runner said:
Was he claiming that it wouldn't work, or that we would never actually use it?

The funny thing about Nobel is that (regarding usage) he claimed that no one would fight wars any longer because dynamite would be too dangerous to use and would be too destructive. It's sorta funny that no matter the tech, it seems to always come out.
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No he claimed it would never work. Just like the US Army and Navy both claimed air power would never win wars, and Billy Mitchell proved them wrong. And the Byzantines didn’t think this new weapon known as cannon would be useful, until the Ottomans started seiging Constantinople with cannons.

Even though the properties of Bitcoin are clear if you take the time to do your own research, not many think it will work.

Perhaps that is best, and the people will get the majority of Bitcoin before governments do. It’s a Trojan horse they inadvertently brought into the citadel.
If the powers that be, knew what it was, perhaps it would have been smothered in the cradle. Now I think it is big enough to be unstoppable.

Thats another reason not to sell at $1M…who do you think are buying those coins? Blackrock and governments will be buying.
 
chance vought said:
Even though the properties of Bitcoin are clear if you take the time to do your own research, not many think it will work.
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I saw where you were going once I looked back up at the thread title.

It was amusing that Fred thought that the CBDCs won't even come out fast enough to stop this train. He's probably right. Perhaps we will have some crazy run of beautiful, anti government nonsense before the digital world enslaves us. Some holy fathers actually predicted that there would be a time of crazy prosperity before the end. I guess we'll be seeing both my friend.
 
The Contrarian's View (David Hunter):


Melt UP (Austrian Economics School Crack Up Boom) Q3 2024 S&P to 7000+/- (Correlates to BTC 80K to 100K+/-)

Then Mega Global Bust from 7K S&P Crashes 80% along with all Global Mkts for 18 to 24 mos.

Margin Calls will take BTC cash outs to cover Stocks etc Margin Calls down to Fibonacci .382 to .618 (38% to 62%) Retrace levels from 100K+/-

Then after Fed Money Prints $20 Trillion to Save USA from 100 Year Anniversary Great Depression 2.0 (1929 to 2029)

Major Flight to Quality Gold, Silver, Oil, Rare Earths, Commodities and Above all BTC...

Gold in 2028/2029 to tag $20,000 oz Silver $500 oz, Oil $500 per Barrel. Inflation sustained 20% to 25% - USA will be a New Venezuela, New Haiti, New Argentina all rolled into a new super Marxist Tyranny. Barbeque Haitian, BLM & ANTIFA Cannibal Gangs RUN AMOK.

If Gold Miners and Mining Royalty Streams Cos can 10X+ here, then anyone hodling BTC will look smarter than BTC Legal Tender El Salvador's President Bukele.

I see some serious BTC Fibonacci Swing Trades Incoming. (Large Green Fractal Waves impulse 1, retrace 2, impulse 3, retrace 4, impulse 5 - then ABC corrective, Rinse and Repeat).

This Month March 2024 Tagged new 2.618+ Extension All Time BTC 5th Wave High of $73.8K USD into new $7K+ A leg retrace of ABC Pattern .382 to .618 range 51K to 37K (Large Green Wave 2 of larger Fractal Wave Cycle). Then B .618 of A up and C = A or C*1.618 of A Down (Mega Global Bust). Then HUGE BTC fractal Green 3, 4, 5 Impulse Up ($375K to $500+K) when Gold Targets $20K, Silver and Oil $500.

Economics per Contrarian Dave Hunter, BTC Fractals per the OG Deepdiver.

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chance vought said:
Good article on the difference between tulips and bitcoin

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Eric Wareheim Mind Blown GIF by Tim and Eric
 
Turns Out I actually Emailed Redbeard's BTC Basics Thread to Myself...

Reprinted Here for the Benefit of CiK Financial Freedom Lovers...

Redbeard's BTC For Beginners Datasheet January 12th 2021:

The Legendary Redbeard (Curious Where He is Now?):

There’s been an influx of beginners into The Bitcoin Thread, so I wanted to put together answers to beginner questions all in one place. The main thread is a useful tool for discussion and current events, but at this point, it’s too much for beginners to parse through. Hopefully this thread will stay on topic and help some of you out!

I’ll structure this in simple Q&A form, keeping the answers as succinct as possible. If you’d like me to elaborate, please don’t hesitate to quote & reply.

I want to learn about Bitcoin. Where should I start?
Read The Bitcoin Standard by Saifedean Ammous.

What about altcoins?
No. Read The Bitcoin Standard and you’ll soon understand why.

Put simply, Bitcoin is king because:

1. "Immaculate Conception" i.e. Satoshi Nakamoto
2. Highest, widespread liquidity
3. Simplest, oldest code
4. Most hashrate
5. Best branding
6. First mover advantage

These facts are baked into the brand, all irrespective of price. No altcoin will ever reach BTC's dominance due to the reasons above.

Should I buy Bitcoin?

I confidently believe that everyone should own some Bitcoin. Even if it’s just 5% of your net worth, this will help provide a fantastic hedge against government inflation.

Is now a good time to buy Bitcoin?
It’s always a good time to buy Bitcoin. I am not a trader and I do not know when is a good time to buy. If you currently own zero Bitcoin, just get started so you can get familiar with the technology. The best & easiest long-term strategy is to Dollar Cost Average. If you’d like to see how DCA into BTC has performed over the years, this site is a fantastic tool.

How much should I invest?
I can’t tell you. A conservative approach is 5% of your net worth, sort of like gold. If you’re young, hungry, and aggressive, you can probably get up to 25% of your net worth. I am not a financial advisor, but make sure you're properly diversified with equities, cash, etc.

What if I’m broke?
If you’re broke, unemployed, or drowning in debt, you shouldn’t invest in BTC. Start fixing up your finances by reading “I Will Teach You To Be Rich” by Ramit Sethi and using “You Need A Budget." Then, once you’re on your feet, start investing into Bitcoin & other assets for diversification.

OK I’m ready to get started. Where should I buy BTC?
Anywhere that doesn’t take your identity. This usually falls into one of three categories.
  • Peer to peer - Buy locally from a trusted friend who will give you BTC in exchange for cash.
  • Bitcoin ATMs - ATMs are expensive but usually have no KYC requirements and are super easy to use.
  • Decentralized Exchanges - Bisq, HodlHodl, etc. Take a little bit more legwork to get started but allow you to buy without leaving the couch.
The fastest way to get started is to go to an ATM and just buy however much coin you want. You can find a map of ATMs near you here. I recommend going in person to see what the identity requirements are.

DO NOT GIVE THEM YOUR IDENTITY.

Why shouldn’t I give up my identity?
If the government were to ban Bitcoin, they would track down every single person who bought BTC on Coinbase and make them sell. If this sounds ludicrous to you, I implore you to look up Executive Order 6102. Dr. Howard had a solid post on what could happen. Also, here’s an in depth analysis of the situation I think everyone should read and reflect on.

If you've never given up your identity before, great news, you have a clean slate in the eyes of the government. The ease of Coinbase is not worth the mark on your permanent record.

What wallet should I use?
Samourai Wallet. I wrote extensively about that here. I recommend you buy a separate phone that is ONLY used for your Bitcoin wallet.

What’s the best setup for a wallet?
Hardware: Google Pixel 3a
Operating System: GrapheneOS
Software: Samourai Wallet

Google Pixels can be bought on Craigslist with cash for $100-$300. GrapheneOS can be flashed for free. Look up YouTube there’s tons of step by step instructions.

How do I protect my recovery seed?
The best protection is to use a metal seed storage tool. There’s dozens of options these days with all types of features, too many to count. Thankfully, Jameson Lopp has done hands-on research and identified the best seed storage tools to buy.

Should I spend my BTC?
The only reasons to spend BTC are:
  1. You want to capitalize on gains without using an exchange.
  2. You want to buy something anonymously.
In both scenarios, make sure you spin it through Samourai Whirlpool first.

Where do I learn to trade BTC?

You don’t. 95%+ of traders lose money. Gambling is a sin. Just buy and never sell and you’ll outperform 99.9% of traders.

Why is this post so short?
I’ve been in crypto since 2016. I can confidently say that 99.9% of what you read out there is trash. YouTubers, news publications, even the altcoins themselves? 99.9% trash.

What’s really important here is Bitcoin. The fastest way to understand Bitcoin is to read The Bitcoin Standard. And the best way to make money off Bitcoin is to DCA.

Is it that simple?
Yes.

Do you have any experience with Bisq/HodlHodl, you need to already own bitcoin for these to work, right?
I think this would be the only reliable way for me to accumulate bitcoin over time without buying p2p in larger amounts. No Atms In my country .
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Bisq is probably your best bet. I'm not sure what you use, but they do accept tons of different payment methods:
Payment Methods

Do I need to own some amount of bitcoin to cover fees or anything else prior to using Bisq or can i just jump in?
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My bad, unfortunately yeah you need some to get started to cover security deposits & fees.

Funding your wallet - Bisq Wiki​


bisq.wiki
bisq.wiki
how would the peer-to-peer use case you recommend play out in real life?
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  1. Find someone who will sell you BTC. This could be at a local BTC meetup, your church, sports team, the forum, something like that.
  2. Convince them to sell you some BTC. Either because they want to take profits, make money using markup, or just to be charitable.
  3. Meet them, hand them cash, then they send a transaction from their wallet to yours.
Make sense?

The hardest part is probably finding someone, now that meetups are on pause due to COVID, but you gotta do what you gotta do. You can check out meetup.com for events, or this list is a good starting point:

Bitcoin Only​

Bitcoin only resources including meetups, books, wallets, podcasts, conferences, and much more.
bitcoin-only.com
bitcoin-only.com
 
I enjoyed the substack. I keep wondering why people use this word "speculation" though.

To be specific: bitcoin is the first and only asset whose supply is not affected by its price. This means it is not subject to the natural constraint on all assets humanity has ever known, whose supply will increase in response to price rises, thereby choking them off.
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This guy talks about it in the way that chance does, which is that it's like discovering zero. If this guy is right or he isn't regarding specific predictions, it is my view (and Fred said this during the Kitco interview) that it doesn't matter what any of us think: this is a runaway train that is happening to us. That's why you MUST own at least some. It could be that we are all going down because of it. It's funny to think about, but only retards would decide not to ride the final train.
 
Blade Runner said:
I enjoyed the substack. I keep wondering why people use this word "speculation" though.
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I guess that’s why it is compared to tulip mania and beanie babies. It is speculation, but for the first time, demand meets a perfectly inelastic supply.

Many people conflate unlimited numbers of scam coins and NFTs, and don’t grasp the one thing that gives Bitcoin value: absolute scarcity.

It’s a mania that only ends when it has consumed half of the world’s wealth. The bubble never bursts, and that has never happened in the history of bubbles/speculative manias, whatever you want to call it.
 
chance vought said:
I guess that’s why it is compared to tulip mania and beanie babies. It is speculation, but for the first time, demand meets a perfectly inelastic supply.

Many people conflate unlimited numbers of scam coins and NFTs, and don’t grasp the one thing that gives Bitcoin value: absolute scarcity.

It’s a mania that only ends when it has consumed half of the world’s wealth. The bubble never bursts, and that has never happened in the history of bubbles/speculative manias, whatever you want to call it.
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So essentially you are saying (without actually saying it) the famous last words of "this time it's different".
 
Australia Sucks said:
So essentially you are saying (without actually saying it) the famous last words of "this time it's different".
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He is, but not in the way you are thinking: this is a paradigm shift.

If you don't know what that means, it would be like making fun of people for saying cars are the future, or credit cards are the future, asking your question condescendingly. Or the transistor. Or the cell phone. Or the personal computer. Etc.

All of those things were different, and people resisted them to the max in some cases. The reality? There was nothing they could do about it.
 
In my post on page 40 describing steps I took to get started with no-KYC BTC, I left out an important detail for this step:

4. Install a privacy-focused Bitcoin wallet on the phone. I use Samourai.

Make sure to download the installer directly from the wallet's web site so you can side-load it onto the device (instructions should be provided by the wallet developer).

Don't download your wallet from the App store -- you don't want Apple or Google knowing you have a Bitcoin wallet. If the wallet doesn't provide a self-installer, choose another wallet.
 
chance vought said:
Yes, it’s different, because of what causes all speculative bubbles to burst: increase in supply of the inflated asset.
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Would they claim that about stocks in the dot com bubble? Is the suggestion that they just kept diluting shares due to being "hot"? Basically, management got greedy or knew they couldn't last, so they just took advantage of the situation?
 
eradicator said:
Good preview of the halving discounts for now. Honestly a healthy btc correction to 55k to 59k would be nice and we probably get that correction.
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Unless there is a yuge selloff with equities this week due to the FOMC-speak, I don't even see it going back to 62.
 
Blade Runner said:
Would they claim that about stocks in the dot com bubble? Is the suggestion that they just kept diluting shares due to being "hot"? Basically, management got greedy or knew they couldn't last, so they just took advantage of the situation?
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Yes you can dilute shares but also attract new capital to start a competing business; there are infinite businesses that can run on the internet. Only one internet.
 
Blade Runner said:
Unless there is a yuge selloff with equities this week due to the FOMC-speak, I don't even see it going back to 62.
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Perhaps. I cannot tell what the ETFs are up to or how they decide when to stop buying and where they will try to sell. You know they will try to front run. But when will they start front running?
 
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