@budoslavic Counting on you today brother!
2024 Election Lounge
- Thread starter Thomas More
- Start date
It’s the only reason I voted. The cathedral is too entrenched to change the direction of the country. I just wanna see some salt mines.
There's a particular flag missing here.
It’s similar here…I feel bad for people voting between 5 and 7PM
Long lines is good news. Republicans always do better on day-of in person voting.
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A precursor to my election analysis....
As many know, I'm involved in local politics, to the point that I've started making enemies of people who were close to me when I ran for office. I decided to endorse a candidate after saying that I wouldn't to her opponent. Her opponent, despite being from the other party, donated to the charitable causes I have and also supported the establishments where I am a member. However, I went against him because he blatantly lied about many things and I realized he is a slime. That endorsement went out to thousands of mail boxes in precincts where I did well. He called me and said he was mad. I said don't take it personally. If she doesn't win, I have a target on my back. Let's say this is a state level race. Oh well. Principles over shilling.
As many know, I'm involved in local politics, to the point that I've started making enemies of people who were close to me when I ran for office. I decided to endorse a candidate after saying that I wouldn't to her opponent. Her opponent, despite being from the other party, donated to the charitable causes I have and also supported the establishments where I am a member. However, I went against him because he blatantly lied about many things and I realized he is a slime. That endorsement went out to thousands of mail boxes in precincts where I did well. He called me and said he was mad. I said don't take it personally. If she doesn't win, I have a target on my back. Let's say this is a state level race. Oh well. Principles over shilling.
Here's that analysis....
People may or may not know some of this, but I'm just giving my perspective. So, not trying to insult anyone's intelligence.
Rustbelt vs Sunbelt - The Sunbelt (Nevada, North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia) are key to this election. If Trump wins all of them or even just Arizona and Georgia, I believe he just needs one of the Sunbelt states (Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania). However, in the same scenario where Trump wins the Sunbelt, Kamala would need all 3 Rustbelt states. It is Trump's election to lose.
Early Vote Action / Scott Pressler - Scott is literally THE Trump card of this election. Ironic that a skinny gay man is the savior of the Republican party, but it's true. He has been putting together an amazing organization. Anyone can literally download the Early Vote Action app and start texting nearby Republican voters. That's how good it is. His efforts, especially in Pennsylvania, have resulted in the breakdown of the Democratic "Firewall." The Firewall was basically the early vote margin Democrats enjoyed in 2020 at 1 million votes at this point, but that same Firewall is around 400,000 or so because of Pressler's efforts. So, if the election day votes favor Republicans, there is little to no way Kamala can make it through. Remember that both in 2016 and 2020 Pennsylvania was won by tens of thousands of votes not hundreds of thousands.
Election Integrity and Polling Hopium - My philosophy is that polling HAS to be tight in order for the left to believe that their candidate has a chance. Otherwise, no one would go out and vote. This works when you have a machine cranking out ballots, as in 2020. BUT, this time, there is an entire Election Integrity Team on the ground with hundreds of GOP lawyers. You can literally tweet them with issues on X and they will show up. Multiple lawsuits were filed in Pennsylvania which have extended early voting as well as one even today (Cambria) which extended voting hours in Pennsylvania, due to machine and ballot issues.
Now, on the polls themselves. There are many polls and many use solid methodology. However, there are shill polls which are outliers. The one that comes to mind is the recent Iowa poll from some Selzer lady who is apparently a "reputable" pollster. The problem with that poll was that there was no "cross tabs" or underlying data provided. However, when you check it against a similarly skewed poll (Des Moines Register) which did have cross tabs, it appears that they are thinking many women will come out and vote against Trump due to abortion. Remember that abortion is not a top issue for people. So it doesn't make sense. Plus, it's an outlier from the other polls. I believe this poll was released to give hope to the Democrats and keep the forecasts tight. Otherwise, the hopium goes away.
Independents and Illegals - There are some theories out there that the independent votes in swing states could swing in Harris' direction because there may be illegals in the voter rolls. I honestly don't know if to believe this or not, but as skeptical as I am from 2020, it appears plausible.
The BIG picture - Honestly, the Democrat party is completely and utterly lost its integrity. Instead of being in the middle and moderate, they have gone to the extreme left and taken their candidates with it. The Obama era started woke policies, riots and bashing of white men. That era lasted well after Obama. Instead of finding a suitable replacement, Obama wanted power and selected dumber people to take over (e.g. Biden, and Kamala). This way, he could keep control. Many top politicians locally do this. They choose successors and allies who don't question them. It's just the same thing at a bigger scale.
Now, the choice the party has is to (1) really fight, I mean REALLY fight for likely the worst candidate in Presidential history, or (2) take the loss now, live to see another day, and rebuild their party to come more into the middle by jettisoning gender issues, child grooming, and maybe even abortion. I think that if they don't choose the latter and get Kamala in office, their party will run into utter chaos and the world will literally go into WWIII. They know it and we know it. I do think this is the play. Save face, but jettison her to lose the battle in order to fight the war.
Overall, what I don't know is how much the left's hopium will last today. They may give up due to Twitter posts showing positive results and just let it go, but if my skepticism about illegals proves right, there could be an issue but that means they have chosen option 2 which is the nuclear option. I don't think they are ready for that with the amount of disarray their party is in.
GO VOTE!
People may or may not know some of this, but I'm just giving my perspective. So, not trying to insult anyone's intelligence.
Rustbelt vs Sunbelt - The Sunbelt (Nevada, North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia) are key to this election. If Trump wins all of them or even just Arizona and Georgia, I believe he just needs one of the Sunbelt states (Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania). However, in the same scenario where Trump wins the Sunbelt, Kamala would need all 3 Rustbelt states. It is Trump's election to lose.
Early Vote Action / Scott Pressler - Scott is literally THE Trump card of this election. Ironic that a skinny gay man is the savior of the Republican party, but it's true. He has been putting together an amazing organization. Anyone can literally download the Early Vote Action app and start texting nearby Republican voters. That's how good it is. His efforts, especially in Pennsylvania, have resulted in the breakdown of the Democratic "Firewall." The Firewall was basically the early vote margin Democrats enjoyed in 2020 at 1 million votes at this point, but that same Firewall is around 400,000 or so because of Pressler's efforts. So, if the election day votes favor Republicans, there is little to no way Kamala can make it through. Remember that both in 2016 and 2020 Pennsylvania was won by tens of thousands of votes not hundreds of thousands.
Election Integrity and Polling Hopium - My philosophy is that polling HAS to be tight in order for the left to believe that their candidate has a chance. Otherwise, no one would go out and vote. This works when you have a machine cranking out ballots, as in 2020. BUT, this time, there is an entire Election Integrity Team on the ground with hundreds of GOP lawyers. You can literally tweet them with issues on X and they will show up. Multiple lawsuits were filed in Pennsylvania which have extended early voting as well as one even today (Cambria) which extended voting hours in Pennsylvania, due to machine and ballot issues.
Now, on the polls themselves. There are many polls and many use solid methodology. However, there are shill polls which are outliers. The one that comes to mind is the recent Iowa poll from some Selzer lady who is apparently a "reputable" pollster. The problem with that poll was that there was no "cross tabs" or underlying data provided. However, when you check it against a similarly skewed poll (Des Moines Register) which did have cross tabs, it appears that they are thinking many women will come out and vote against Trump due to abortion. Remember that abortion is not a top issue for people. So it doesn't make sense. Plus, it's an outlier from the other polls. I believe this poll was released to give hope to the Democrats and keep the forecasts tight. Otherwise, the hopium goes away.
Independents and Illegals - There are some theories out there that the independent votes in swing states could swing in Harris' direction because there may be illegals in the voter rolls. I honestly don't know if to believe this or not, but as skeptical as I am from 2020, it appears plausible.
The BIG picture - Honestly, the Democrat party is completely and utterly lost its integrity. Instead of being in the middle and moderate, they have gone to the extreme left and taken their candidates with it. The Obama era started woke policies, riots and bashing of white men. That era lasted well after Obama. Instead of finding a suitable replacement, Obama wanted power and selected dumber people to take over (e.g. Biden, and Kamala). This way, he could keep control. Many top politicians locally do this. They choose successors and allies who don't question them. It's just the same thing at a bigger scale.
Now, the choice the party has is to (1) really fight, I mean REALLY fight for likely the worst candidate in Presidential history, or (2) take the loss now, live to see another day, and rebuild their party to come more into the middle by jettisoning gender issues, child grooming, and maybe even abortion. I think that if they don't choose the latter and get Kamala in office, their party will run into utter chaos and the world will literally go into WWIII. They know it and we know it. I do think this is the play. Save face, but jettison her to lose the battle in order to fight the war.
Overall, what I don't know is how much the left's hopium will last today. They may give up due to Twitter posts showing positive results and just let it go, but if my skepticism about illegals proves right, there could be an issue but that means they have chosen option 2 which is the nuclear option. I don't think they are ready for that with the amount of disarray their party is in.
GO VOTE!