My posts both here and on RVF on the Ukraine thing have been borderline scary in their accuracy.
Thanks for the comic relief, this is much funnier than any of your posts with the fake Russian sock puppet.
US is not going to withdraw from Europe and the mineral deal with get signed. Russia on the other hand will get small territorial gains littered with mostly bombed out cities aka a money sink in return for its military ran into the ground and melted down economy.
"Melted-down economy" that has been growing at 4.1%, with industrialization not just in the military sector, but across the board, automotive, civilian aerospace, consumer products, food industry, agricultural equipment, electronics, machine-tools etc. The sanctions have acted exactly as a hard protectionist policy that has been a boon for domestic industry.
The Russian military is much stronger today than in 2021. They didn't even have drones before, today they are the top military in the world in terms of standoff weaponry, from cheap drones to cutting-edge hypersonics. They have a large experienced standing ground army, which is today the best in the world.
The Donbas has more than 2/3 of Ukraine's mineral wealth.
The Russians will also get back all their money, $300 billion, more than enough to rebuild their new territories.
Literally told you 3 years ago that that the US is willing to make territorial concessions in Ukraine in return for defanging and possibly turning Russia. Ever wondered why the Russians are so eager to accept a deal which does not achieve a single one of their stated objectives and which is in complete violation of about any narrative spun up in the last 3 years? The victory conditions laid out by Putin on February 23, 2022 and their current status:
1. No stop on NATO expansion, in fact Sweden and Finland became members with the latter already building missile facilities right on Russia's border
2. No de-militarization, denazification or neutrality of Ukraine
3. No full 'liberation' of the Donbass or 'Russian territories' in Ukraine
4. No room for a Russian orbit in a newly designed European security sphere.
Strategic goal added later through the 2023 Russian MFA foreign policy document:
5. Talk of BRICS, multipolarity and bringing about the end of US hegemony suddenly on the backburner.
1. DUH - The main point of contention for the Russians is
Ukraine getting into NATO. and that is NEVER GOING TO HAPPEN NOW, Trump has already conceded. You have to be really blind to not see this as a major Russian win. Sweden doesn't matter, and the US is not going to expand into Finland.
2. Laughably wrong there. Ukraine was already going to practically demilitarize under the Istanbul Agreement, now they are going to really demilitarize and remain neutral - no NATO now, not in 10 years, or 25 years. Ukraine minus Galicia will eventually fall back into Russian orbit, their part will have the industry and rebuilding funds, while the rest will stay poor.
3. The bare, strict minimum for Russia to end the war is not just all of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, but also all of Kherson oblast, including the north shore and the city, and all of Zaporizhia and the city. If the negotiations fail, they will start moving on the northern and Dnipro oblasts.
4. The Russians have already built up influence in Hungary, Slovakia, Serbia and now also Romania, where the people now hate the EU and are ripe for rapprochement with Russia, with cheap energy as the cherry on top. These countries are going to build competitive advantages vs Germany and western Europe.
5. Russia might use its improving relationship with the US as a leverage against China, which might have been taking Russia for granted. They will still trade and transact with China and won't take down their new payment system and independent trading platforms, win for Russia again.