Good read from Foreign Affairs.
Trump needs to figure out what he wants—and quickly.
www.foreignaffairs.com
If the U.S. and Israel do not manage to find an off-ramp rather quickly (say within the next month or so), I fear they will become trapped in an escalatory spiral that ends either with a massive ground campaign or the use of nuclear weapons. Both of these outcomes would be catastrophic (the former primarily for the U.S., the latter for the entire world) and any reasonable person would recognize they must be avoided at all costs. Unfortunately, such common sense seems to be in short supply between Trump and Netanyahu, who blundered their way into this war against the recommendations of their military and intelligence experts, and who - shockingly - seem to have had no actual plan beyond simply killing Khamenai.
As far as I can tell, literally the entire idea was simply, "Let's kill Khamenai and as much of the other leadership as possible and hope that this triggers regime change." Anyone familiar with the religion and culture of Shia Iran, and particularly with the structure of the IRGC, could have told you that this plan had extremely low odds of success, and was therefore a total long shot. If it was undertaken at all, it should have been done so knowing from the start that it would be a limited operation similar to last year's attack on Iran's nuclear facilities, and the killing of Soleimani in 2020. The idea that they would simply wage an open-ended air war against Iran with no clear objective or victory condition is preposterous, and yet that seems to be what has happened.
The lack of second- and third-order thinking in regard to Iran's likely responses to this aggression is also totally perplexing. We know the Iranians have a massive stockpile of missiles and drones. We know the logistical importance of the Straight of Hormuz. We know the relatively vulnerability of U.S. and Israeli assets in the Middle East. And we seem to have been caught with our pants down by Iran's counterattacks. The only way this makes any sense is if the U.S. and Israel assumed that Iran was simply going to roll over almost immediately in response to the initial attacks and the death of the Supreme Leader. And this, as I pointed out above, simply delusional. A totally imbecilic notion that could and should have been dispelled almost immediately by briefings from Iran experts in the military and CIA. I have no doubt that these briefings were made, and that these truths were stated plainly. Which means that they were purposely ignored. This is grand malfeasance by Trump and Netanyahu, and if this foolish adventure isn't wrapped up very soon, not only is it going to destroy the presidencies and legacies of both Trump and Netanyahu, it risks inflicting catastrophic and permanent damage on both the U.S. and Israel as a whole.