Iran-Israeli Conflict Thread

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RE: Abraham Lincoln. What likely happened is an Iranian vessel approached the CBG (Carrier Battle Group) formation within its protective radius and an accompanying destroyer opened fire on it, followed by a Seahawk (likely from said destroyer) hitting it with an AGM. Nimitz carriers are themselves not equipped with a "5-inch gun;" the battle group escorts are supposed to do to job of screening anything coming close.

RE: the Stratotanker downing, likely one KC-135 was fueling off another and a boom mishap occurred, causing the tailstrike on the surviving (receiving) aircraft as it tried to break away hard from the other jet.
 
RedLagoon said:
There's a lot of people making money through price gouging like down under, they don't mind this "war".

Iran is also getting stinking rich and Russia has now more than ever an energy stranglehold on the EU.
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Yes Russia is making money now, Iran is very dependant on exports so by closing the straights for too long its gonna affect them economically, it could eventually cause an uprising amongst their people if the local economy gets really bad, they also have damaged infrastructure that needs repairs, its possible that Irans big customers might start looking elsewhere for their supplies and Iran could lose out big time
 
Read_Lives_of_Saints said:
Patricia Marins tweeted:

Iran X California

What I still can’t connect the dots on is this: Iran hasn’t attacked a single U.S. Navy ship that’s only 750 km from its coast, well within range of at least three anti-ship missiles.

The truth is that during few occasions, the US aircraft carrier was as close as 350 km to the Iranian coast.
At similar distances in Yemen, there were daily swarms, which even launched Sayyad and Quds Z-0 missiles with an 800 km range, and this has been confirmed in reports.

Iran probably didn’t because it knows that sinking an American warship would trigger massive public outrage in the U.S. and dramatically increase support for war.

If Iran didn’t dare attack ships just 750 km away, why on earth would it attack California, which is 12,000 km away?

In a war that the US is who is under insane pressure from Arab countries and the financial markets?

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Amazing that California is mentioned out of all places in USA, thats a state thats very against Trump and would probably support Iran more than America, a strike in California would only make Liberals more mad at Trump and blame him and support Iran
 
Ember said:
Three senior Iranian officials on Israel's hit list, Ali Larijani, Judiciary Chief, Mosen Ejei, and Police Chief, Commander Radan, were seen at marches in Tehran today. The marches carried on even as strikes were coming in.







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Keep in mind that Iran has about 250 million people, just because there are a lot of protestors marching here doesn't mean all 250 million Iranians share this view, for all we know maybe 100 million Iranians are against this who knows
 
GoodShepherd said:
Keep in mind that Iran has about 250 million people, just because there are a lot of protestors marching here doesn't mean all 250 million Iranians share this view, for all we know maybe 100 million Iranians are against this who knows
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The entire Iranian leadership is strolling around at these marches, shaking hands with the public, with little in the way of visible security. It would be quite possible for all these anti-government protestors to take a crack at them. They are obviously not too concerned about it.


I would like to see any Western leadership do the same.
 
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Ember said:
The entire Iranian leadership is strolling around at these marches, shaking hands with the public, with little in the way of visible security. It would be quite possible for all these anti-government protestors to take a crack at them. They are obviously not too concerned about it.
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There are no soldiers on the ground and they surrounded by civilians, I highly doubt USA and Israel would have bombed a leader in broad daylight on camera around civilians during a protest march, it might have happened if there were boots on the ground maybe a surgical sniper but at the moment it seems like its just a missle exchange
 
GoodShepherd said:
There are no soldiers on the ground and they surrounded by civilians, I highly doubt USA and Israel would have bombed a leader in broad daylight on camera around civilians during a protest march, it might have happened if there were boots on the ground maybe a surgical sniper but at the moment it seems like its just a missle exchange
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A lady was killed by a bomb nearby. Also, didn't you comment on the double tap tomahawk on a all-girl school earlier?

I don't think you realize thats a regular occurrence in Gaza..Civilians are fair game to these monsters and I expect these types of bombings to continue while they whisper you excuses.

 
GoodShepherd said:
I highly doubt USA and Israel would have bombed a leader in broad daylight on camera around civilians during a protest march,
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But I did not suggest that was the goal of the strikes landing nearby, just that they were happening. I was talking about the 100 million anti-government civilians that you mention. It is clear that they are not taking action against the Iranian leadership that are casually mingling with the public. This suggests a high confidence that the vast majority of the public are now supportive of the Islamic Republic's war for survival against the West.

 



Iran has a much higher pain threshold in what is essentially a heavyweight slugfest where the world economy could be collateral damage. They also have cards they have yet to use, perhaps advanced hypersonics that can hit big ships in the Arabian Sea.

Their winning strategy is to survive as a regime, disrupt Hormuz traffic, destabilize the GCC-US-Israel alliance and inflict political damage on the Trump administration through higher oil prices, inflation and military personnel losses in a war that is largely unpopular to start with.

US/Israeli strategy is regime change through decapitation, and pressure on that regime through the destruction of Iranian infrastructure and the economic pain that ensues, and the military goal of neutralizing Iranian missile and drone strikes. Here US and Israeli goals diverge, Israel wants to destroy and balkanize Iran, and would also be very happy to see the GCC economies collapse, with the longer term goal of balkanizing Saudi Arabia as well. The West however doesn't want chaos in the GCC, the Petrodollar has worked pretty well so far.
 
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Good read from Foreign Affairs.

www.foreignaffairs.com

What Is the Endgame in Iran?

Trump needs to figure out what he wants—and quickly.
www.foreignaffairs.com www.foreignaffairs.com

If the U.S. and Israel do not manage to find an off-ramp rather quickly (say within the next month or so), I fear they will become trapped in an escalatory spiral that ends either with a massive ground campaign or the use of nuclear weapons. Both of these outcomes would be catastrophic (the former primarily for the U.S., the latter for the entire world) and any reasonable person would recognize they must be avoided at all costs. Unfortunately, such common sense seems to be in short supply between Trump and Netanyahu, who blundered their way into this war against the recommendations of their military and intelligence experts, and who - shockingly - seem to have had no actual plan beyond simply killing Khamenai.

As far as I can tell, literally the entire idea was simply, "Let's kill Khamenai and as much of the other leadership as possible and hope that this triggers regime change." Anyone familiar with the religion and culture of Shia Iran, and particularly with the structure of the IRGC, could have told you that this plan had extremely low odds of success, and was therefore a total long shot. If it was undertaken at all, it should have been done so knowing from the start that it would be a limited operation similar to last year's attack on Iran's nuclear facilities, and the killing of Soleimani in 2020. The idea that they would simply wage an open-ended air war against Iran with no clear objective or victory condition is preposterous, and yet that seems to be what has happened.

The lack of second- and third-order thinking in regard to Iran's likely responses to this aggression is also totally perplexing. We know the Iranians have a massive stockpile of missiles and drones. We know the logistical importance of the Straight of Hormuz. We know the relatively vulnerability of U.S. and Israeli assets in the Middle East. And we seem to have been caught with our pants down by Iran's counterattacks. The only way this makes any sense is if the U.S. and Israel assumed that Iran was simply going to roll over almost immediately in response to the initial attacks and the death of the Supreme Leader. And this, as I pointed out above, simply delusional. A totally imbecilic notion that could and should have been dispelled almost immediately by briefings from Iran experts in the military and CIA. I have no doubt that these briefings were made, and that these truths were stated plainly. Which means that they were purposely ignored. This is grand malfeasance by Trump and Netanyahu, and if this foolish adventure isn't wrapped up very soon, not only is it going to destroy the presidencies and legacies of both Trump and Netanyahu, it risks inflicting catastrophic and permanent damage on both the U.S. and Israel as a whole.
 
GoodShepherd said:
Thoughts? Keep in mind that the US IQ average has dropped because of mass migration so take that into consideration.
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Also important to take into account the utter stupidity of white liberals. That said, Iranians have never been known as dumb people.

Anyway, I'm not sure if this youtube channel has already been mentioned here. They have good interviews and takes. These are the same guys who comment on the Ukraine war too.

 
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