The Venezuela Thread




G9wImgpXEAA5NOz




 
Just out of interest, does any know or have an educated guess how things are supposed to proceed in Venezuela politically? Elections? Drug cartel takeover? Anarchy? US peacekeepers?

What's wild to me is that their anti aircraft defenses couldn't even take out choppers.
My educated guess is that Trump intends to replace Maduro with a leader who will be pro-American, and who will open the Venezuelan oil industry to US investment. This leader will also be expected to work with US forces to fight the drug dealers, as has been done for a number of years in Columbia. I know an anti-American leader is currently in Columbia, and US anti-drug efforts there are probably disrupted, but that's still the model I would expect for Venezuela. I would not expect the drug cartels there to suddenly disappear. They will still have many people within the government on their payroll.

I expect a substantial faction of Venezuelan society will rebel against any notion that the government has become a US puppet. It will not be easy at all to redirect the ship of state in Venezuela.
 
Here's an interesting post about what this means for Canada. This confirms the expectation that the US will get access to Venezuelan oil.



Good news & bad news.

Good news for the end of a narco-state.

Bad news for the Canadian economy.

Canadians have no idea what this means for our oil industry & our economy.

A US “friendly” President will be installed.

The US will lift sanctions from Venezuela & heavy crude oil will be imported into the US.

Meaning, Canada’s primary customer for crude, the US, will now have cheaper options available.

By Canada not pushing through with Keystone XL, expansion to Asia and Europe, will cost us dearly.

Trump wanted Keystone XL. He mentioned it several times earlier this year.

And now he’s got something bigger and better: the biggest oil reserves on earth.

This was the key leverage we had on CUSMA… the US dependency on our oil.

Now that’s gone.

Carney took too long to negotiate, Trump likely realized that Canada will never supply the quantities of oil/gas the US wants/needs & instead, he “diversified”.

I know this is going to make Carney sweat.

It’s not good news for Canada’s economy.

We had a potential for a monopoly & we blew it.
 
With Venezuela, you're dealing with a group of people with a cohesive national identity, who are productive and had a functioning, prosperous nation in the recent past and recent memory. You also have a large Venezuelan diaspora spread throughout the Americans that would love to return home to the country they love and reopen businesses and improve their native land.

Also, Venezuela was already a sh#thole so bad that millions of people fled the country. Can't imagine it will be any worse under new management.
 
Here's an interesting post about what this means for Canada. This confirms the expectation that the US will get access to Venezuelan oil.


It will take many years and billions in investments to rebuild Venezuelan oil industry after years of neglect, mismanagement and sanctions.
G9v_HGDWsAE3uqL.webp

Here's another reaction tweet, saying that China currently imports 90% of Venezuelan oil. How will this impact them, and how will they react? I don't expect nuclear war, but I do expect China will have some kind of reaction.


China is the largest consumer of Venezuelan oil, but Venezuela isn't the largest oil supplier to China.
1746567280250.webp
 
Last edited:
Yeah Make Venezuela Great Again. I’m really stoked about how this benefits all the Venezuelans in America, and look forward to paying taxes to improve their country for them to make it as comfortable as possible for their transition home, if they choose to do so.

Profits from Venezuelan oil could/should offset the costs.
 
Trump is going after the drug cartels. Without going down a rabbit hole, Venezuela is where the source code for Smartmatic voting machines came from and the cartels are up to their ass in it. Remember the 2020 election? Trump does and anyone who thinks Trump will let any of that go is seriously miss reading the man.

Both pretexts are QAnon-level complete bunk. It's all about the oil, resources and Monroe Doctrine.
 
It will take many years and billions in investments to rebuild Venezuelan oil industry after years of neglect, mismanagement and sanctions.


China is the largest consumer of Venezuelan oil, but Venezuela isn't the largest oil supplier to China.
View attachment 26672

A lot of the oil listed from Malaysia is really from Iran and Venezuela. In any case, China's oil demand is coming down fast due to their vehicle fleets going electric. They have been expanding their energy production like gangbusters with nuclear, hydro, solar and in a couple of years a whole lot more Russian natural gas through the Power of Siberia pipeline.
 
Last edited:
Also, Venezuela was already a sh#thole so bad that millions of people fled the country. Can't imagine it will be any worse under new management.

It could get a lot worse, civil war. There is a large faction of the Chavistas that will not accept the next US-appointed government. 5+ million refugees. That is the worst case scenario, and I don't think you can dismiss it.
 
Back
Top