The Venezuela Thread

Thomas More said:
I am surprised at how Trump has seized on Venezuela as a target of military action and government overthrow. He has generally avoided this kind of thing in his two terms up to now. I can't see that the US really has a sufficient cause of war against Venezuela. I do consider their government a disaster for their country, and I can believe that their government is tied to organized crime and drug smuggling. However, I really don't want to see a "you break it you bought it" policy leaving us in charge there and trying to fix all their problems with gigabucks. Even if we arrange contracts for US oil companies to take over their oil industry and pay royalties into the US backed regime, it seems like it will be a quagmire.

I'd leave Maduro in place let them deal with their own problems. I'm fine with blowing up drug boats and arresting their gang members in the US, but actual war against Venezuela doesn't seem like a good idea at all.

Does anyone have a counter argument on this?
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From my vantage point, this is the next phase of the Trade War against BRICS. The China - Russia - Iran - Brazil axis is still in tact as a parallel economy against the Petrodollar.

Much of the reasoning you described are just there to sell to various voters but maintaining the USD and getting a better negotiating position is the goal for the US here. Venezuela's oil is the lowest hanging fruit.
 
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Thomas More said:
He has generally avoided this kind of thing in his two terms up to now. I can't see that the US really has a sufficient cause of war against Venezuela.
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He laid it out in the NatSec strategy:
After years of neglect, the United States will reassert and enforce the Monroe Doctrine to restore American preeminence in the Western Hemisphere, and to protect our homeland and our access to key geographies throughout the region. We will deny non-Hemispheric competitors the ability to position forces or other threatening capabilities, or to own or control strategically vital assets, in our Hemisphere.
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NSOE said:
As far as sanctions go, the profits generated by Citgo were flowing into the country until 2019. The ship seizures are a very recent thing. Cuba likes to point to the trade embargo with the US as the source of all their economic ills, even though they could get everything they needed from other countries.

If the Suns Cartel is still active, how does it survive in an authoritarian country without being destroyed- the jungle isn't as dense. LatAm has very corrupt people, but whatever you want to do, you must have 'permission'.
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The jungle is dense but that ain't a problem because the Cartel de los Soles top dogs all sit in Presidential, Ministerial and Senatorial suits in Caracas. Venezuela, being the mismanaged shithole that is, has since decades moved onto industrial level of narcotrafficking and other illicit activities to understut its crumbling economy. Never mind the personal profits obviously, these people have becoming filfthy rich of speed-boating the jejo onto American shores. Disclaimer: whenever Venezuelan narcocommies get the spotlight put on them at least one detractor will immediately crawl out of the sewer to start waffling about da CIA, calling it here.

Caracas' dirty dealings are actually much worse than just massive drug trafficking. Venezuala's main intel agency is directly involved in seeding Tren de Aragua and Cartel de los Soles members in the US, and they ain't there to work the fields or run carwash joints if you know what i mean. Happened in several other countries too bytheway, one of the reasons Venecos have such a bad rep and many neighbouring populations are quietly praying& hoping for US intervention so that all the high crime Venezuelans can at least get booted back over the border.

In the geopolitical spheres the Venezuela-Cuba-Nicaragua axis is a regional alternative to US patronage and power projection. This trifecta might sound unimpressive, but they are on a foreign payroll and punch far above their weight - much like modern UAE+Qatar do elsewhere. Cuban interference in much of the African and South American continents is a widely acknowledged feat. In Latin America this influence can be seen in the Foro de Sao Paolo, with many recently voted in Trotskyites in Mexico City, Brasilia and Bogota all taking sides against DC. That group was even bigger until pro US forces scored electoral victories in Buenos Aires, Santiago de Chili, La Paz, Quito and Tegucigalpa. Right in time too, because many of the booted out leftoids in places mentioned above were not exactly in the mood to leave, just a few weeks ago Honduran Prez Xiomara Castro was in the process of muscling out a pro US candidate until her own generals (backed by DC) made it clear that she did actually lose and it really was time for her to go.

Foro de Sao Paolo is a regional initiative but as with most deluded authoritarians Maduro's ambitions reached far beyond his own continent. In the last 25 years Venezuela has aligned itself with the communist bloc+ Iran, and Maduro indicating that he's willing to base Tupolov 30 nuclear capable long range bombers is going to be his downfall. There is just no going back from offering yourself to be a vessel for the impending destruction of the US homeland.

There are more variables, Trump has mentioned the Venezuelans nationalizing the oil sector several times already. As for the Cartel de los Soles' commie narco buddies in Colombia, the ELN, they have already stated that they will fight on the side of Maduro. Goes to show that the narcostate frame is more than just a spin, it's truth.

 
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Videos on how Maduro is arming its citizens militias have become routine, the millions strong Bolivarian Militia was supposed to be armed and prepared months ago already. These videos primarily seem to serve as morale boosters, also note how there isn't any ammo handed out.



Navy Seals beware.

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I'll never understand how this forum can simultaneously be anti-american regime and pro america needlessly invading foreign nations.

I'll see posters talk non-stop about the deep state and how in needs to be stopped from within, but the moment, said deep-state decides to invade a foreign nation, then they suddenly become die hard patriots.

This isn't some NFL superbowl game where team A beats team B and we all party about it afterwards. This is real life, with real people dying. Invading countries, leads to diaspora, leads to more immigration, leads to lower wages. Which sucks for everyone, except the elites.

This is the same tactic done by the American government since the 1950s.
 
It_Is_My_Time said:


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Doesn't really change anything.
Sure, in theory in order to board her now in international waters we should ask the state under which flag she's sailing for permission (unless she's suspected of criminal activity like piracy/slave trade/drug trafficking). But in practice, the US is not party to UNCLOS (law of the sea). We sure like to invoke it when it suits our goals (to chastise China for example), but we haven't ratified the treaty and we're not bound by it.
 
US strikes on Venezuela have started, large number of air and cruise missile strikes on high value targets across the country. In addition dozens of US choppers are reported over Caracas including troop transport carriers like Chinooks. No sign of any Venezuelan AD systems so far

UNCONFIRMED: Several news agencies report that the residence of Vladimir Padrino, Venezuelan Minister of Defence and number 3 on the totempole was targeted. He's apparently missing in action. These type of decapitation strikes were expected.











 
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