The Wider Middle East Thread

-1. Do not insult.
The Saudis like many other developing world countries now view the US as a setting power. The younger generation of Saudis travel and do business in China, they see the difference between cities like Shenzen, Shanghai or Beijing and western cities like London, Paris or NYC which are in social and physical decline. China has become their main trading partner, by far, and the gap will widen as China fills new niches like autos or passenger jets. As well, there is a long history of trade between east and west Asia that goes back to the Middle Ages, which is being revived. Saudi Arabia has made the teaching of Mandarin mandatory in their school system.

Saudi-China-trade.jpg


Going forward, China is the world's largest importer of oil, and the largest exporter of manufactured goods by a wide margin.

China will first come into the Middle East through trade, investments and currency moves. Down the road, you might see more direct military involvement of China (and Russia) in the region, starting with weapon purchases. The transition won't be instantaneous, but it will take place this decade. At some point down the road, China will start asserting itself on the global monetary scene by pegging its currency to gold and revealing the extent of its gold reserves, which might be greater than 30,000T, 5 to 10 times larger than US gold reserves, which are claimed to be around 8,000T but have never been audited.




Only if they carry over their oil from Arabia by rickshaw... the cost of shipping oil via tankers from the Persian Gulf to Hong Kong is around $4/barrel, you're off by a factor of 10 here.

The Abraham Accords are dead in the water. Saudi, UAE are joining BRICS, and this, according to you, never happened:



For you to use the Abraham Accords as a valid talking point shows incredible lack of awareness (or bias) wrt the tectonic shifts in western Asia.

Below and above is the end stage of about all of Coop's takes, aka totally off the mark and in hindsight embarrassing to read. It's legit cringeworthy spitting through the little man's previous posting sprees, one wall of dressed up and made up on the fly BS after the other. This historically illiterate, geopolitically myopic, emotionally invested and high on e-daddy's slopnarratives' thirdworldist just can't stop BSmaxxing, having sifted through the sludge I don't legit think there has been a single of his forecasts that has been mildly accurate and the little man's posts ergo anno 2025 have the relevance of a flatulent stray dog's wet farts.

These misinformation peddling stooges just love it when they find a few ignorant and soft heads to drill their disinfo slop into hence why you gotta keep them on a short lease. Eternal ridicule as we relive the 'tectonic shifts', 'dead Abraham Accords' and 'Saudi/UAE throwing its weight with BRICS', 'Saudi considers the US a setting power' and a string of other retarded and mostly made up feel-good takes that have finally crystallized, yet only in the exact opposite way. The Gaza War is over and Hamas out and done, the Axis of (non-) Resistance a footnote in history, Iran clipped and defanged, the US position in the Middle East more entrenched than ever, turdworldist solidarity a proven myth, and BRICS an afterthought. Lil Coop as always clueless and high on his own supply, La Aguila Negra, per usual, right on everything.

MBS just signed the US-Saudi defense framework mentioned a few posts above. 48 F35 + 300 Abrams tank deal inked, Saudi designated a major non NATO ally, MBS set to invest another 1 trillion USD in the US economy, Abraham Accords entry on the horizon, petrodollar looking solid as hell.

 
MBS just signed the US-Saudi defense framework mentioned a few posts above. 48 F35 + 300 Abrams tank deal inked, Saudi designated a major non NATO ally, MBS set to invest another 1 trillion USD in the US economy, Abraham Accords entry on the horizon, petrodollar looking solid as hell.

The difference between MBS and Trump is that MBS will likely be on the stage for decades to come, while Trump has a couple of more years to go. MBS can play the long game, Trump can't. It's easy to pledge a long term investment of 1000 zillion trillion dollars now in order to stroke Trump's ego. Let me know how much has actually been invested in three years time.

Although the Israel/US-alliance has never been stronger on the ground, for the first time in history the "special relationship" is under scrutiny and debate. And the long term effects of this has yet to play out. Zionism is a totalitarian ideology that cannot tolerate dissent or debate. We are now seeing the beginning stages in an attempt by the Zionists to take over full control of social media and the internet, and to completely silence anyone that protests and asks questions. This of course includes silencing many prominent "America First"-profiles, since "America First" isn't "Israel First".

Who knows how it will all play out.
 
Several US bombing runs in Somalia last week. This time unrelated to Puntland, but in the South of the country. Al Qaida linked al Shabaab has started a new offensive against AMISOM/ Somalian government and is gaining ground.





In other news due to budget slashing by DOGE many of the Somalian army/government institutions units dependent on US money will soon not be able to maintain themselves hence disappear/change sides.


There is a US special forces raid going on in Puntland, Somalia. High IS casualties reported. US forces are supported by drones and helicopters. Not the first time this happens but last time was over a year ago. At the same time AFRICOM continues their bombing campaign on Al Qaida/al Shabaab and IS in support of the central government, in 2025 so far at least 100 air and drone strikes have been reported. This number is by far the highest number of US strikes measured by year ever.





 
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The increased Emirati support worked, the SAF offensive ran out of steam. Sudan is lowkey back in the news due to the siege on El Fasher deteriorating. The RSF is pushing, the Emiratis want the city to fall. El Fasher is the last SAF holdout in Darfur and has been under siege for over 2 years. Famine and disease are rife, allegedly over a million people are trapped. The RSF execute anyone trying to enter or flee El Fasher, Africa style war crimes are the norm. The issue is gaining traction in the international community/ the UN, there is a push for a ceasefire.

Overall the war has reached an impasse and the SAF is not able to military defeat the RSF, which means the solution is diplomatic. Both parties don't seem willing to compromise hence a de facto breakaway Darfuri Republic looks likely. This Darfuri state will be led by the Beggara Arabs (famous for their slave trading) dominant in Darfur and Kordofan as opposed to the Nile Arabs in Khartoum. As a UAE proxy the Darfuri statelet will also stand in opposition to the MB/ Islamist dominated Sudani junta in Khartoum, likewise the RSF project will give the UAE a strong card against creeping Turkish and Iranian influence in Khartoum. Aside from Emirati influence the RSF also has a decent support structure within Africa due to support from countries like Kenya, South Sudan, Uganda, Chad, Libya etc









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El Fasher fell a couple of months ago and the UAE backed RSF immediately started Africa-style reprisals on the local population. In the days after the capture dozens of videos were posted by and of RSF members committing atrocities, ranging from beheadings to mass executions, deliberately running prisoners over to hunting fleeing people in the desert safari style. Numbers are arbitrary yet British intelligence now puts the number of deaths at 60 000, with more missing.



 
March 2025 Syrian SDF - al Sharaa peacedeal is under heavy pressure. SDF was supposed to disarm and integrate into Syrian state structures under this deal, and in a 12 month timeframe. No progress since then, heavy distrust between Jolani's jihadists and the secular Kurdish pseudo-commies of the SDF. Al Sharaa already lost Suweida after Israeli intervention, Turks are becoming very impatient and want the SDF either gone or disarmed. Heavy Turkish military build up along SDF controlled areas continues, al Sharaa sending columns from his area. For now these are posturing and threats yet Erdogan will move if he feels there is a window of opportunity

US has for now sided with al Sharaa basically rugpulling their former bestie the SDF. Not sure where Washington stands right now, US envoy Tom Barrack is close to al Sharaa/Turkey yet other people in the Administration seem less close. Without US military, intelligence and diplomatic support the SDF doesn't stand a chance against the Turks.



 
Which raises the question: where does Israel stand right now? Certainly not with al-Sharaa. Israel can't be too happy with Trump siding with them. Must be why DC Zionists have been in a frenzy attacking Jolani and Qatar.


The Trump Administration stands for a centralized Syrian state integrated into the global community and with a increasingly self sufficient military, hence the current Trump- al Sharaa lovestory. The Trump Administration views al Sharaa's past as problematic but surmountable and is there are talks on a US base south of Damascus. The Trump Administration is trying to convince Netanyahu on entering a detente with al Sharaa.

Netanyahu is against this. Israel wants to keep Syria divided, decentralized and lacking any serious military punch hence its support for the Druze, the Kurds and potentially soon the coastal Alawites/Christians. Syria is supposed to become a Somalia 2.0, a place where feudal lords are in eternal warfare and the country is carved up under ever shifting lines yet never able to muster itself and rise again. Obviously this is fanned by outside actors. Netanyahu has no interest whatsoever in signing a peacedeal with the Syrians and becoming relatively good neighbours.

The third player is the HTS led government, which is aware of the cracks and is trying to play other camps. Al Sharaa seems to be open to at least a temporary ceasefire yet the Israeli occupation of Syrian soil around Mount Hermon is a problem. Al Sharaa has the support of Turkey and Qatar, and is moving on Moscow. Al Sharaa was in Moscow one month before he travelled to DC bytheway. First progress: last month a Israeli-Russian-Syrian deal was struck on the return of Russian peacekeepers on the Syrian-Israeli border, Netanyahu trusts Putin and the Russians are supposed to create a bufferzone between the IDF and jihadist elements.

The latter is a problem for Netanyahu, there are constant skirmishes on the Southern border/ Quneitra between the IDF and jihadists, the Sunnis are disorganized and prone to impulsive violence, unlike tight organizations like Hezbollah. This makes them difficult to deal with. Last week the IDF again threatened to bomb Damascus yet again if al Sharaa wouldn't get his men under control, IDF patrols had run into a jihadist ambush in Southern Syria, the Russians are being brought in to bring this under control.



 
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