The Wider Middle East Thread

LaAguilaNegra said:
Israel has recognized Somaliland, first state in the world to do so. This is a rather big development in the Horn of Africa, expect the UAE and Ethiopia to follow suit. Somaliland has been a Emirati launchpad for further incursions into Africa for over a decade, Hargeisa and Berbera are vital in the Emirati supply chain to arm and supply a number of UAE banked groups, most notably the Messara RSF/janjaweed.

In Israel's case focus will be on securing the Bab el Mandeb, balancing out Turkey and creating a deterrent vis a vis Ansarallah/the Houthis. During the last 2.5 years Israelis were unable to roll up Ansarallah Assad/Hezb/Hamas/IRGC style due to the distance ergo had to live with a relatively well armed hostile entity near one of the world's main maritime chokepoints. With Somaliland in the picture this liability will be met with a deterrent, Israeli military assets and across the Gulf will hamper Houthi shenanigans in a possible next round.

The recognition of Somaliland also deals a heavy blow to Turkey, Turks have greatly expanded their footprint in Africa over the last 10-15 years. Somalia is one of those places, Turks are heavily invested in Somalia and have a military base in the country (TURKSOM).

Expect a more aggressive Israeli shift towards backing separatist republics in places like Sudan, Libya, Yemen, Syria, Iraq as well, especially the UAE backed Hirak/ Southern Yemeni independence movement is high on the list to receive a similar Israeli stamp of recognition rather sooner than later.



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Minor correction, post above referred to Israel's intention to recognize Somaliland. Actual recognition happened yesterday. Expectation is that several other states will follow suit, although the US will keep a distance due to the issue being controversial and large regional players/allies like Egypt, Turkey and Saudi Arabia being opposed to any recognition and shift in the status quo.

On the deepening Turkey-Israel rift, Erdogan is throwing his full weight behind Mogadishu. Aside from TURKSOM, largest Turkish military base abroad, Turkey will now also open a new military base on the near the Gulf of Aden (Lasqoray) and close to Somaliland's de facto border. Turkey also pledged to launch a space program from Somalia's territory (which might very well be a covert missile site), and will expand on the 2025 TPAO deal which granted Turkey exclusive rights to explore and exploit Somalia's onshore and offshore hydrocarbons + the 2024 Defense and Cooperation Deal which granted Turkey the right to patrol Somalia's EEZ and bag 30 percent of the revenue from maritime resources + Turkey's de facto ownership of Mogadishu's port.

In a new development: Saudi Arabia is moving away from the UAE-Israel axis due to events in South Yemen. The Saudis are on bad terms with Abu Dhabi and its accession to the Abraham Accords seems distant. Yesterday the Saudis stated that Turkish peacekeeper must be accepted in Gaza, they are drifting away from Israel and towards Turkey. Saudis too pledged to invest in Somalia









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LaAguilaNegra said:
March 2025 Syrian SDF - al Sharaa peacedeal is under heavy pressure. SDF was supposed to disarm and integrate into Syrian state structures under this deal, and in a 12 month timeframe. No progress since then, heavy distrust between Jolani's jihadists and the secular Kurdish pseudo-commies of the SDF. Al Sharaa already lost Suweida after Israeli intervention, Turks are becoming very impatient and want the SDF either gone or disarmed. Heavy Turkish military build up along SDF controlled areas continues, al Sharaa sending columns from his area. For now these are posturing and threats yet Erdogan will move if he feels there is a window of opportunity

US has for now sided with al Sharaa basically rugpulling their former bestie the SDF. Not sure where Washington stands right now, US envoy Tom Barrack is close to al Sharaa/Turkey yet other people in the Administration seem less close. Without US military, intelligence and diplomatic support the SDF doesn't stand a chance against the Turks.



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Al Sharaa's Turkey supported STG (New Syrian Army) has started a military campaign to 'liberate' the SDF held neighborhoods in Aleppo. SDF held neighborhoods have been declared military zones and civilians are instructed to leave. Rhetorics are serious and objectives are much beyond the usual clashes. For now the scale is limited to Aleppo, but this could blow up the SDF - Syrian Army agreement. If it spreads only Washington and Tel Aviv can save the peace deal, the former by putting pressure on Damascus and Ankara, the latter by dialing up support for the SDF







 
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LaAguilaNegra said:
The Lebanese decision to disarm Hezbollah under Aoun was made, yet progress in its execution is slow. Israeli strikes and assassination attempt aimed at Hezbollah operatives and networks are increasing in frequency yet to fully restart operations in Lebanon they will wait for a green light sign from Washington.

I am giving the Lebanese state and Hezbollah till January max. Hezbollah is in the ropes and the Israelis want to finish the job, Washington is sounding increasingly impatient with the Lebanese delays and excuses.

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Israeli media is reporting that Trump has given Netanyahu the green light to re-start the war on Hezbollah. Disarmament of Hezbollah by the LAF is not moving forward, and neither will Hezbollah disarm on its own. Journalist Amit Segal says that Trump is actually pushing for the operation to resume and that Israelis are still wavering, a renewed war will again lead to mass displacement in the North which might hurt Bibis standing, current status quo is not bad as Hezbollah as ceased to be a threat and can be targeted with impunity in precision strikes.



 
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