Al Sharaa's guys wrapped up the Kurdish SDF held neighborhoods within 48-72 hours, no kinetic involvement from Turkey and barely any noise from Israel. This is a big success for Al Sharaa, these Kurdish neighborhoods were controlled by the SDF for close to 15 years and were riddled with tunnels and bunkers. Al Sharaa is clearly intending to build on this success, the Syrian government has again labeled a SDF held area a military zone ergo another military operation is in the cards.
This salami slicing method seems to be the modus operandi for now. SDF deadline on integration/ partial disarmament has been delayed by 1 month. Deir Hafer area will see the next round of hostilities, Turkey, the SAA/STG and SDF are all contracting troops in nearby staging areas.
In the last 3 weeks Al Sharaa has crafted the strategic defeat of the SDF/YPG which ultimately resulted in yet another ceasefire with shaky foundations that allows for future shenanigans and the potential total destruction of the YPG down the line. Al Sharaa is cunning and knows how to play the game, in the last 12 months he has outmanouevered many internal and external players and aside from the Suwayda excursion - which got hammered by Bibi, every single coin flip falls his way. Al Sharaa's very smart and a strategic thinker.
In mid January Al Sharaa engineered the restart of hostilities against the SDF/YPG, first Al Sharaa managed to make the SDF's Mazloum Abdi give up territory in return for time and peace after yet another ceasefire, then Al Sharaa manufactured a casus belli by immediately thereafter orchestrating hostilities between the 'The Arab Tribal Army' and the SDF. Al Sharaa used this playbook in Suwayda before. 'Tribal Army' incursions all across the contact line led to SDF defenses crumbling. The SDF's Arab components switched sides immediately, obviously on Al Sharaa's call, and within a week the YPG (only Kurds remained) had lost 80 percent of its territory.
Last week the US brokered yet another deal, this time allowing Syrian government forces to jointly govern and patrol the remaining Kurdish held areas yet with certain grants regarding autonomy, self-governance and Kurdish units semi-integrated into the Syrian Army given to the Kurds. Obviously the above means the end of communalist Rojava project, and is yet another temporary truce aka stepping stone to the total destruction of the YPG a bit further down the line. Despite a last ditch US bipartisan 'Save the Kurds Act' effort by Blumenthal and Lindsay Graham + an appeal by Macron to ramp up diplomatic and tangible support for the Kurds they are isolated.
The above also shows the camps within US state structures, with the dominant US Turkey Ambassador+ regional envoy Tom Barrack prioritizing a centralized Syrian state led by Washington's new dark horse Al Sharaa, whereas Graham, Blumenthal and others prefer a decentralized and divided Syrian state.
Overall the current developments are a massive win for Al Sharaa, Erdogan and increasingly MBS. The Syrian Civil War seems to be nearing its end, and especially Turkey is coming out on top. Current zones of influence are Israeli up until Damascus and Turkey+partners north of it. Any talk on the partition of Syria along ethnic lines (Druze, Alawi+Christian, Kurd) was just set back miles.
Entrance of Syrian Army into Hassakah
Latest ceasefire already under pressure
Last YPG holdouts at the moment of the latest US brokered ceasefire
