The Venezuela Thread

The claims might not be as clownish as it seems. During the Spanish conquest of South America there was these battles where a few hundred Spanish soldiers were able to defeat ten thousands of Aztecs. For a more modern example, there's those reports of a single Boer or English farmer in Africa being able told hold off dozens of Africans attacking their farm.
 
A US State Department delegation led by John McNamara flew into Caracas from Curacao yesterday, and was then escorted to the US Embassy, later allegedly they also met with Acting President Delcy Rodriguez for a chat. It was then communicated that the US Embassy in Caracas will be reopened shortly, and that Venezuela will amend ties with DC. Delcy Rodriguez has since tried to sell her groveling by saying that opening the US Embassy is necessary to 'properly condemn the January 3 raid'.

She's obviously between a rock and a hard place even though she seemingly is speedrunning the US capture of Venezuelan institutions, as improbable as that may seem on a mid to long term time-line. Trump on the other hand is a solipsist NYC business man who thinks everybody is USD wired like him. Meanwhile the collectivos are still out on the streets beating up people who show signs of support for Trump.

Funnily enough there are lots of commie adjacent true believer BRICSplainer types who think that Delcy Rodriguez, who was molded by the Chavista system and who's father was tortured (allegedly to death) by the CIA, is playing the Americans together with Moscow and Beijing and that Venezuelan patriQts are still in Qontrol. Note that this is very different from seeing political fracturing down the line. Below is a link to expired, scruffy and unkempt Brazilian communist Pepe Escobar. Listening to that man is always comedy gold, he just never fails to deliver



IMG_20260110_120437_794.jpg

 
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Heard Escobar years ago talking about China and it was boiler plate wowee zowee they've come so far, slurp, slurp.

But I actually like having guys like Escobar running around because anyone who talks to him is someone that I know I never need to take seriously. He's like a bird dog for flushing alt-media morons.
 
Wutang said:
The claims might not be as clownish as it seems. During the Spanish conquest of South America there was these battles where a few hundred Spanish soldiers were able to defeat ten thousands of Aztecs.
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Phycological warfare and tech similarities. You're on point as usual Mr. Tang....

On the tech, animal husbandry alone caused a psychological warfare issue for the Indians with the Spanish (Columbus wrote about this)

American Indians used dogs for food. Europeans (Particularly the Spanish and Portuguese) had War Dogs. Namely the Alaunt (think modern day taller mastiff like a classic American Bulldog or Cane Corso or Bull Mastiff dogs )

Balboa had a famous Mastiff/greyhound mix titled 'Leoncito' who was known to kill many In a warriors. I'm the chapter titled THE QUEST FOR THE AUSTRAL OCEAN found in the biography:
Vasco Nuñez de Balboa, by Frederick A. Ober.

It's noted:

Sturdy Balboa was leading the advance, as usual, with his inseparable companion Leoncito by his side. This battle-scarred veteran was a hound of scarce more than medium size, but as strong and fierce as a lion. He was not only leonine in his majestic bearing, but in color also, for his hue was tawny, like that of the king of beasts. As he was considered by the soldiers the equal of any member of the force, he drew pay as one of them, and during his various campaignings earned for his master upward of a thousand crowns. The Indians of the coast country knew him well by reputation, which was so terrible that merely the sight of him would put a thousand to rout. But these Indians of the mountains knew neither the dog nor his master—though to their sorrow they were soon to make their acquaintance.
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https://share.google/Kt0Q5aCG579ioet9I

Wutang said:
For a more modern example, there's those reports of a single Boer or English farmer in Africa being able told hold off dozens of Africans attacking their farm.
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How about the 13 defense contractors in Benghazi holding down thousands of ISIL or ISIS fighters post botched Weapons buy back for the Syria program.

I Made the joke about the light high bolts from the arse but in all seriousness. The number one rule in Combat is "look fucking cool and determined "

When you have several helicopters of US Special OPs Forces (Seals/Delta/MarSoc/SF) coming in looking prepared ... It's like being a Indian watching the Conquistador ride in with Horses and War Dogs.
 
Ember said:


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Get the meme take. Hahaha

But if your making a serious argument here you should take a very long walk off a short pier.

American companies provided millions in infrastructure and the communist government nationalized the investment. We built their ability to pull oil out of the ground and the infrastructure to continue and export ops. Our companies should get recompense for this..

Fuck Russia and fuck China? Why do they get to benefit from American shareholder money?

In the grander scheme of things it's part of the greater strategic oil reserve war we are waging against Saudi Arabia... But it's our back yard and falls under the mentality of " fuck you if you think you get to hit on my cousin before I say it's ok"
 

An AI summary of the matter:​


Legal and Historical Basis for Venezuela’s Oil Nationalization​

Venezuela’s nationalization of its oil industry is widely supported under international law through the principle of Permanent Sovereignty over Natural Resources (PSNR), established by the United Nations General Assembly in 1962. This principle affirms that sovereign states have the inherent right to control, manage, and dispose of natural resources within their territory. As such, Venezuela’s ownership of its oil reserves is legally uncontested, and claims by U.S. officials like Donald Trump and Stephen Miller that Venezuela “stole” American oil are without credible legal foundation.


Venezuela oil nationalization international law

1976 Nationalization: A Legally Recognized Transfer​

In 1976, under President Carlos Andrés Pérez, Venezuela nationalized its oil industry and created the state-owned company Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA). Foreign firms—including U.S. companies like ExxonMobil, Chevron, and Gulf Oil—were compensated for their assets, making the process relatively uncontroversial and consistent with international norms. This action reflected a broader global trend of resource nationalism in the post-colonial era.
History of the Venezuelan oil industryaspect of history
Wikipedia

Chávez-Era Expropriations and Legal Disputes​

Under Hugo Chávez in the 2000s, Venezuela further consolidated control over oil projects, particularly in the Orinoco Belt. Contracts were renegotiated, and stakes held by ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips were seized when they refused new terms. While these actions led to international arbitration and compensation claims, they were framed by Venezuela as exercises of sovereignty, not theft.

  • ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips pursued legal remedies through the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID), winning partial awards.
  • However, enforcement has been hindered by U.S. sanctions and political tensions, not lack of legal merit in Venezuela’s sovereign claims.
https://www.reddit.com/r/energy/comments/1ppwup6/trumps_claim_that_venezuela_stole_us_oil_fields/
ExxonMobil Venezuela arbitration case site:reddit.com

U.S. Rhetoric vs. International Law​

Trump’s assertion that “American sweat and ingenuity” created Venezuela’s oil industry and thus justifies U.S. ownership is a political narrative, not a legal argument. U.S. companies operated under concession agreements, which grant temporary extraction rights—not ownership of resources. International law does not recognize historical development efforts as grounds for claiming sovereign resources.

Experts, including political scientist Salvador Santino Regilme, emphasize that such rhetoric represents a rhetorical escalation aimed at legitimizing geopolitical intervention, not a valid legal position.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KfiJTfPiMng
Trump Venezuela oil claim fact check

U.S. Military Actions and Violations of Maritime Law​

Recent U.S. seizures of oil tankers near Venezuela—such as the Skipper and Marinera—have drawn condemnation from China, Russia, Iran, and UN experts as violations of international maritime law. These actions, framed as enforcement of sanctions, lack clear legal warrants in several cases and risk setting dangerous precedents for extraterritorial seizure of commercial vessels.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/01/07/world/venezuela-us-trump
US seizure of Venezuelan oil tankers legal critique

Conclusion: Sovereignty Over Narrative​

While U.S. firms have legitimate claims for compensation in specific expropriation cases, Venezuela’s ownership of its oil reserves is unequivocal under international law. The nationalization of oil was a lawful assertion of sovereignty, not theft. U.S. claims to Venezuela’s oil are politically motivated and legally unfounded, reflecting a broader pattern of interventionism rather than adherence to legal or ethical principles.

1976 Nationalization: A Legally Recognized Transfer

Chávez-Era Expropriations and Legal Disputes

U.S. Rhetoric vs. International Law

U.S. Military Actions and Violations of Maritime Law
https://search.brave.com/ask?q=are+...13507#1-conclusion-sovereignty-over-narrative
 
Wutang said:
The claims might not be as clownish as it seems. During the Spanish conquest of South America there was these battles where a few hundred Spanish soldiers were able to defeat ten thousands of Aztecs. For a more modern example, there's those reports of a single Boer or English farmer in Africa being able told hold off dozens of Africans attacking their farm.
Click to expand...
The small Spanish force was able to beat the large Aztec force in part due to recruiting all the people that had been conquered and oppressed by the Aztecs. Granted, those people couldn't rise up and defeat the Aztecs by themselves, so the superior Spanish armor, weapons, and tactics made the critical difference. Still, it wasn't just a few 100 Spanish beating 10,000 Aztecs. They had a lot more manpower.

Either way it was an incredible feat.
 
LaAguilaNegra said:
Below is a link to expired, scruffy and unkempt Brazilian communist Pepe Escobar. Listening to that man is always comedy gold, he just never fails to deliver
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Laughter Laughing GIF
 


China is a major buyer of Venezuelan crude oil, and will probably look to secure new sources of supply.

But there is little urgency for them to do so. Oil prices are falling, and other suppliers are eager to step up their exports to China, and were doing so before the takeover of Venezuela.

China also is at surplus for crude oil imports, and in November alone was over 1.8 million barrels, per day, that went into storage.

Chinese inventory builds and draws are now the most important driver in crude oil markets.

China is living rent free in this thread. 😂

Resources and links:

Reuters, China overtakes OPEC+ as the main oil price maker
www.reuters.com

China overtakes OPEC+ as the main oil price maker

Conventional wisdom in the crude oil market is that producers such as OPEC+ largely determine the price by altering output levels to achieve a desired outcome.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com

China accelerates crude stockpiling amid weaker oil price trend
www.reuters.com

China accelerates crude stockpiling amid weaker oil price trend

China's flows of crude oil into storage probably jumped in November to the highest in six months, as a surge in imports overwhelmed steady refinery processing rates.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com

China's November crude oil imports reach highest daily level in 27 months
www.reuters.com

China's November crude oil imports reach highest daily level in 27 months

China's crude oil imports rose 4.88% in November from a year earlier, government data released on Monday showed, with daily import volumes reaching the highest level since August 2023.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com

What is OPEC+ and how is it different from OPEC?https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=56420

Maduro, Venezuela, The U.S.—And The Oil Shock China Can’t Price In
 
expectation said:


China is a major buyer of Venezuelan crude oil, and will probably look to secure new sources of supply.

But there is little urgency for them to do so. Oil prices are falling, and other suppliers are eager to step up their exports to China, and were doing so before the takeover of Venezuela.

China also is at surplus for crude oil imports, and in November alone was over 1.8 million barrels, per day, that went into storage.

Chinese inventory builds and draws are now the most important driver in crude oil markets.

China is living rent free in this thread. 😂

Resources and links:

Reuters, China overtakes OPEC+ as the main oil price maker
www.reuters.com

China overtakes OPEC+ as the main oil price maker

Conventional wisdom in the crude oil market is that producers such as OPEC+ largely determine the price by altering output levels to achieve a desired outcome.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com

China accelerates crude stockpiling amid weaker oil price trend
www.reuters.com

China accelerates crude stockpiling amid weaker oil price trend

China's flows of crude oil into storage probably jumped in November to the highest in six months, as a surge in imports overwhelmed steady refinery processing rates.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com

China's November crude oil imports reach highest daily level in 27 months
www.reuters.com

China's November crude oil imports reach highest daily level in 27 months

China's crude oil imports rose 4.88% in November from a year earlier, government data released on Monday showed, with daily import volumes reaching the highest level since August 2023.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com

What is OPEC+ and how is it different from OPEC?https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=56420

Maduro, Venezuela, The U.S.—And The Oil Shock China Can’t Price In
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Hardly living rent free.... Surely your not implying that this is not a net negative for China and not a significant event for America?
 
@expectation ... Ive worked in industry in upstream and downstream O&G for last 6 years. Not sure if I'd take this guy's pro Chinese position completely as gospel...though it brings up good points.


I'll add with regard to this guy's video:



Venezuala will impact China. By the fact that they prevent a cheaper discounted price for their surplus alone will affect them.

Your video poster is making false claims and I'm not sure why, except for the fact that he's a an American living in China and has to drink the chicom coolaid.

This guy said China is the biggest importer AND consumer of crude oil. That is incorrect. Importer yes. Refiner NO...but they are making inroads towards this. Also .....They are not the biggest consumer (America is and you can find several sources to corroborate this)

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) https://share.google/lMb77dfeqjvn6xuIt

Your guy is correct in that the current rate of crude at a low is a huge benefit to China. He has an interesting take and it bears further research and validation... It's a very optimistic view on the part of China and assumed they have more control than possibly true.
 
The CEO of Exxon, Darren Woods, has stated that Venezuela is "uninvestible" under current legal and commercial conditions. He could also privately fear that the US without boots on the ground is not truly in control, and the situation could quickly destabilize, reverting back to open resistance and legal challenges.



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Ember said:
The CEO of Exxon, Darren Woods, has stated that Venezuela is "uninvestible" under current legal and commercial conditions. He could also privately fear that the US without boots on the ground is not truly in control, and the situation could quickly destabilize, reverting back to open resistance and legal challenges.



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Exxonmobil as a company is always consider the balance sheet leader for dividends and returns and long term investments. They seem to only put money behind things that work for 5 to 10 years minimum. Ultra conservative by nature as per their CEOs comments

This isn't a good play for them or their shareholders with Guyana being next door and their playground. As t least per ROIC from what I can tell

But thing change.

If the government makes significant inroads....and the US guarantees shareholder's (not sure how) Who knows?


I think Trump is full of shit(or hyperbole) on this one. 100b is retarded crazy money for even all the top 10 or tip 30 o&g companies to invest in for no guarantee on returns.
 
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www.foxnews.com

US warns Americans to leave Venezuela immediately as armed militias set up roadblocks

The U.S. government issued an urgent security alert for Americans in Venezuela to leave immediately due to safety concerns and an inability to provide continued assistance.
www.foxnews.com www.foxnews.com

US warns Americans to leave Venezuela immediately as armed militias set up roadblocks​

Armed militias known as colectivos reportedly setting up roadblocks to search vehicles for evidence of US citizenship​

 
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