The India- Pakistan Conflict Thread

Things are escalating very quickly now. Looks like another Ukrainian style drone war kicking off.

Seems like it, the Pakistani are currently in the middle of yet another drone +missile attack on Indian targets in the border area. They are launching waves of drones, possibly with the intention of tiring out Indian AD systems. All Indian border areas are currently experiencing blackouts, which apparantly is standard procedure in these circumstances.

Will have to wait until the fog of war clears but that's quite a few interception in the video below, in this particular case the Pakistani were targeting Jammu airbase. Possibly hundreds of drones and missiles involved in this attack.

There is still an offramp available but so far neither side seems contented with the current scoreboard, and with each escalation room for negotiations gets more difficult. International pressure will be key in convincing both sides to tone things down.



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Looks like India has grounded its air force, PL-15s have won the air war. I think they will exchange some blows with drones for a week and then call it a day.

This is a good explanation of how Pakistan was able to win the first air war, they have the fully operational 300km range version of the PL-15 missile, which outrange the Rafale's Meteor by 100km, rather than the export version with half the 300km range.

 
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Does either country expect to capture territory from the other? If they go to war, what victory condition is each side seeking? Will they just sit on the existing border and blast away at each other without changing anything?

Well that's what they've been doing since 1947, now they've just got fancy fighter jets it seems.
 
Looks like India has grounded its air force, PL-15s have won the air war. I think they will exchange some blows with drones for a week and then call it a day.

This is a good explanation of how Pakistan was able to win the first air war, they have the fully operational 300km range version of the PL-15 missile, which outrange the Rafale's Meteor by 100km, rather than the export version with half the 300km range.



That air battle has gotten the attention of MSM now that US & French Officials has acknowledged that at least 2 aircrafts has been downed.


Both Paki + India sides are still wrestling control of the narrative at the moment. India did a mass ban on foreign influencers from reporting as well. I see mixed narratives on India's drone invasion from Pakistan withheld Air Defenses to avoid getting exposed to India claiming total victory on their attacks Jammu, Rajasthan, etc.

 
Does either country expect to capture territory from the other? If they go to war, what victory condition is each side seeking? Will they just sit on the existing border and blast away at each other without changing anything?

Operation Sindoor started as a punitive strike meant to re-establishment the Indian deterrent and decapitate some JeM and LeT leadership, aka settle the score and quench the bloodthirst of the BJP Hindutva electorate bloc that Modi primarily draws his support from. That was and officially still is the Indian strategic objective.

The Pakistani are primarily concerned with the Indus Water Treaty. The IWT was suspended/cancelled by India in the aftermath of the Pahalgam terror attack, to be used as a bargaining chip by New Delhi. The Indus is vital for Pakistan because the majority of its water comes from the Indus and its 6 branches. Nearly all Pakistani threats are linked to the IWT. Without the Indus most of Pakistan would turn into a desert. Despite the Treaty suspension it is not sure to what extent India is able to actually fiddle the water supply.

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The scope of the operation has de facto widened since Operation Sindoor started, primarily due to the swift Pakistani tit for tat reaction. That's the escalation ladder, where two foes either try to one up each other, or one side established escalatory dominance ergo starts controlling the pace and outcome of events on the ground.

The current drone and missile strikes are not just random acts of aggression. Both India and Pakistan are targeting radar systems, forward airbases and AD systems. Strategic bomber ABs and missile silos could be next, aka both sides are trying to degrade each other's integrated AD systems, radar capacities and ISR capabilities. If one side manages to achieve air domination it will tilt the balance of power possibly leading to concessions at the negotiating table at best, and domestic unrest, economic collapse and loss of confidence in the responsible political+military elite at worst. Especially Pakistan has a very brittle homefront, dealing with two growing insurgencies in the North and West and still reeling from the violent Imran Khan/PTI crackdown two years ago - which brought the current junta to power. It's fifth generation warfare and one way to decide modern wars between peer competitors barring large scale troop movements.

As for redrawing the LoC, that's still quite a few steps away and would require significant logistics and troop build up. To me Modi seems to be to prudent a politician to take such a risk, and the Pakistani economy is too weak to support a large scale invasion of enemy terrain. Moreover too many players on international stage would lose freak out if that'd happen.
 
Operation Sindoor started as a punitive strike meant to re-establishment the Indian deterrent and decapitate some JeM and LeT leadership, aka settle the score and quench the bloodthirst of the BJP Hindutva electorate bloc that Modi primarily draws his support from. That was and officially still is the Indian strategic objective.

The Pakistani are primarily concerned with the Indus Water Treaty. The IWT was suspended/cancelled by India in the aftermath of the Pahalgam terror attack, to be used as a bargaining chip by New Delhi. The Indus is vital for Pakistan because the majority of its water comes from the Indus and its 6 branches. Nearly all Pakistani threats are linked to the IWT. Without the Indus most of Pakistan would turn into a desert. Despite the Treaty suspension it is not sure to what extent India is able to actually fiddle the water supply.

View attachment 20771

The scope of the operation has de facto widened since Operation Sindoor started, primarily due to the swift Pakistani tit for tat reaction. That's the escalation ladder, where two foes either try to one up each other, or one side established escalatory dominance ergo starts controlling the pace and outcome of events on the ground.

The current drone and missile strikes are not just random acts of aggression. Both India and Pakistan are targeting radar systems, forward airbases and AD systems. Strategic bomber ABs and missile silos could be next, aka both sides are trying to degrade each other's integrated AD systems, radar capacities and ISR capabilities. If one side manages to achieve air domination it will tilt the balance of power possibly leading to concessions at the negotiating table at best, and domestic unrest, economic collapse and loss of confidence in the responsible political+military elite at worst. Especially Pakistan has a very brittle homefront, dealing with two growing insurgencies in the North and West and still reeling from the violent Imran Khan/PTI crackdown two years ago - which brought the current junta to power. It's fifth generation warfare and one way to decide modern wars between peer competitors barring large scale troop movements.

As for redrawing the LoC, that's still quite a few steps away and would require significant logistics and troop build up. To me Modi seems to be to prudent a politician to take such a risk, and the Pakistani economy is too weak to support a large scale invasion of enemy terrain. Moreover too many players on international stage would lose freak out if that'd happen.

Why are these two mud people nations doing this on the global scale though? Is it because EU is showing such weakness or is it because they feel they can now "dominate"?

Scary to think these clowns both have nukes.
 
Why are these two mud people nations doing this on the global scale though? Is it because EU is showing such weakness or is it because they feel they can now "dominate"?

Scary to think these clowns both have nukes.

The EU never decided jackshit on the Subcontinent but the US most definitely does. Vance yesterday pulled his hands of the dossier.



To answer your question as to Why now? you'll have to go back to April 22 firstly, and the 80 years before that secondly. There is a lot of speculation on the Pahangam terror attack. Some believe the perps were indeed Pakistan supported terror outfits (LeT did claim the attack initially), and some believe there are there bad actors involved - with accusations ranging from Indian spooks (RAW), to US spooks, (CIA) to Chinese spooks (MSS).

Also keep in mind that the attack happened during JD Vance's India visit, just like the 2020 Delhi riots happened during Trump's visit, the 2013 Bodh Gaya blasts happened around Biden's visit, the 2006 Varanasi Railway bombings happened during Bush's visit and Chattinsinghpura happened during Clinton's 2000 visit. So obviously some sleeper cells get activated whenever a US bigwig is in town.

JD Vance's India visit carried massive importance for what it's worth, the US is looking to solidly lock India into the Transatlantic powerstructures and make it the Southern bastion against China. Some believe that the US letting India have a go is a way of testing the Indians as to see how they fare in a modern air dominated conflicted, and if they are ready to hold back the Chinese in a future (limited) conflict. Another interesting (yet farfetched) theory is that handing India a slice of Kashmir was the price the US paid for getting them on board in countering China.
 
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My first thought is that India and China need a long and drawn out land war to thin out the young male population of both countries. The young mothers in both countries love to commit female infanticide because “girl babies are bad” in their logic. That leads to a shortage of women and a fucked up society over time

Not sure if that happens between China and India or if Pakistan and India are crazy enough to nuke each other now or not
 
After two nights of sustained Pakistan drone attacks on Indian targets + Indian retaliation the Pakistani military command today announced the start of Operation Banyan al Marsous targeting several key Indian military sites.



More visuals of Pakistani drone attacks, most if not all of these drones were swatted away by Indian L70 AD guns, these cheap dummy drone waves were probably meant to extract information about India's AD geolocations and/or saturate and tire out systems and deplete ammo stocks.



A few hours before the announcement of Operation Bunyan al Marsous India launched several ballistic missiles at Pakistani Airbases, several impacts at Rawalpindi's Nur Khan Airbase. Rawalpindi is home to Pakistan's Army General HQ.



In the first stage of Operation Bunyan al Marsous Pakistan targeted at least 5 strategic sites.







Pakistan's airspace is cleared as of this morning. In India 27 airports (by now 32) are closed until further order.

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Over the past 48 hours, @VP Vance and I have engaged with senior Indian and Pakistani officials, including Prime Ministers Narendra Modi and Shehbaz Sharif, External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, Chief of Army Staff Asim Munir, and National Security Advisors Ajit Doval and Asim Malik.

I am pleased to announce the Governments of India and Pakistan have agreed to an immediate ceasefire and to start talks on a broad set of issues at a neutral site.

We commend Prime Ministers Modi and Sharif on their wisdom, prudence, and statesmanship in choosing the path of peace.
 
Looks like India has grounded its air force, PL-15s have won the air war. I think they will exchange some blows with drones for a week and then call it a day.

This is a good explanation of how Pakistan was able to win the first air war, they have the fully operational 300km range version of the PL-15 missile, which outrange the Rafale's Meteor by 100km, rather than the export version with half the 300km range.



People like to brag about how china-nese tech or Western tech wins wars or how the Indians lost this or that.....but everyone seems to have forgotten what started this whole thing....

The senseless slaughter of innocent Indian tourists.
 
People like to brag about how china-nese tech or Western tech wins wars or how the Indians lost this or that.....but everyone seems to have forgotten what started this whole thing....

The senseless slaughter of innocent Indian tourists.


Under Zia al Haqq Pakistan started a process of Islamization domestically, and started including the use of jihadist terror groups in Pakistan's Bleed India to Death by a Thousand Cuts doctrine. This was in the 80s, when the Saudis poured billions of USD into the country Arabizing and Islamizing Pakistan with the US quietly giving the process the greenlight. This was due to the Cold War paradigm as back in the 80s India was, despite its officially unaligned status, very close to the USSR and the Nehru-Ghandi and Ghandi dynasties had socialist tendencies and prefered the USSR over the US. Washington, like in Afghanistan, saw political Islam as a powerfool tool against creeping Soviet influence.

Most of the terror groups currently running amok in Kashmir and Pakistan itself were conceived and funded by Pakistani intelligence, including the ones currently fighting the junta in Pakistan itself. Pakistan is not going to stop support for the groups that haven't gone rogue, it will have to be dealt a really serious defeat for Islamabad to consider doing so.

Overall, just judging by outward appearance, there is a sizeable Islamist presence within Pakistan's military too. Not just the rank and file, but decision makers too. Asim Munir, who is Pakistan's Chief of Staff and MVP (makes the real decisions) has a history of making inflammatory remarks about Hindus. Below I included some Pakistani big wigs, just have a look at their mannerisms and facial hair styling, straight up Salafists in the top echelons of Pakistan's political and civil leadership.

Federal Minister for Information and Broadcasting

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Army bigwig visible during presser

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Ceasefire is falling through pretty hard right now, Pakistani drone strikes are being reported along the entire border and the LoC is hotter than at any point since May 7 + reported infiltration attempts. Indian AD systems are active and Indian drones are reported over several Pakistani cities as balancer.

Big ol' Donny is kinda looking like a fool right now. Not sure what the point of manufacturing a ceasefire was anyway, other than catching shine and gaining status on world stage. These guys clearly want to have a go at each other and during the last two days the balance of power was shifting India's way as the Pakistani seem to have major weaknesses in their AD umbrella - just in the last 24 hours India hit 4 major airbases. Seeing the Chinese so openly side with Pakistan alone should have been enough to let things run its course for at least a few days/weeks longer.

My hunch is that there are rogue elements within the Pakistani military that were not consulted about the ceasefire, nor would they have supported it. Civilian and military leadership are not in sync, and at least some of the top generals do not consider things done yet.

Maybe Shebaz expected the military to fall in line due to Orange Man backing him. It did not, Pakistani civilian leadership might very well get couped in the not so distant future.
 
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Yes. I don't like this one bit. It as always one of the hottest spots, as I've said, for nuclear weapons geographically isolated (with Iran second).
 
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