The India- Pakistan Conflict Thread

Things are escalating very quickly now. Looks like another Ukrainian style drone war kicking off.

Seems like it, the Pakistani are currently in the middle of yet another drone +missile attack on Indian targets in the border area. They are launching waves of drones, possibly with the intention of tiring out Indian AD systems. All Indian border areas are currently experiencing blackouts, which apparantly is standard procedure in these circumstances.

Will have to wait until the fog of war clears but that's quite a few interception in the video below, in this particular case the Pakistani were targeting Jammu airbase. Possibly hundreds of drones and missiles involved in this attack.

There is still an offramp available but so far neither side seems contented with the current scoreboard, and with each escalation room for negotiations gets more difficult. International pressure will be key in convincing both sides to tone things down.



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Looks like India has grounded its air force, PL-15s have won the air war. I think they will exchange some blows with drones for a week and then call it a day.

This is a good explanation of how Pakistan was able to win the first air war, they have the fully operational 300km range version of the PL-15 missile, which outrange the Rafale's Meteor by 100km, rather than the export version with half the 300km range.

 
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Does either country expect to capture territory from the other? If they go to war, what victory condition is each side seeking? Will they just sit on the existing border and blast away at each other without changing anything?

Well that's what they've been doing since 1947, now they've just got fancy fighter jets it seems.
 
Looks like India has grounded its air force, PL-15s have won the air war. I think they will exchange some blows with drones for a week and then call it a day.

This is a good explanation of how Pakistan was able to win the first air war, they have the fully operational 300km range version of the PL-15 missile, which outrange the Rafale's Meteor by 100km, rather than the export version with half the 300km range.



That air battle has gotten the attention of MSM now that US & French Officials has acknowledged that at least 2 aircrafts has been downed.


Both Paki + India sides are still wrestling control of the narrative at the moment. India did a mass ban on foreign influencers from reporting as well. I see mixed narratives on India's drone invasion from Pakistan withheld Air Defenses to avoid getting exposed to India claiming total victory on their attacks Jammu, Rajasthan, etc.

 
Does either country expect to capture territory from the other? If they go to war, what victory condition is each side seeking? Will they just sit on the existing border and blast away at each other without changing anything?

Operation Sindoor started as a punitive strike meant to re-establishment the Indian deterrent and decapitate some JeM and LeT leadership, aka settle the score and quench the bloodthirst of the BJP Hindutva electorate bloc that Modi primarily draws his support from. That was and officially still is the Indian strategic objective.

The Pakistani are primarily concerned with the Indus Water Treaty. The IWT was suspended/cancelled by India in the aftermath of the Pahalgam terror attack, to be used as a bargaining chip by New Delhi. The Indus is vital for Pakistan because the majority of its water comes from the Indus and its 6 branches. Nearly all Pakistani threats are linked to the IWT. Without the Indus most of Pakistan would turn into a desert. Despite the Treaty suspension it is not sure to what extent India is able to actually fiddle the water supply.

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The scope of the operation has de facto widened since Operation Sindoor started, primarily due to the swift Pakistani tit for tat reaction. That's the escalation ladder, where two foes either try to one up each other, or one side established escalatory dominance ergo starts controlling the pace and outcome of events on the ground.

The current drone and missile strikes are not just random acts of aggression. Both India and Pakistan are targeting radar systems, forward airbases and AD systems. Strategic bomber ABs and missile silos could be next, aka both sides are trying to degrade each other's integrated AD systems, radar capacities and ISR capabilities. If one side manages to achieve air domination it will tilt the balance of power possibly leading to concessions at the negotiating table at best, and domestic unrest, economic collapse and loss of confidence in the responsible political+military elite at worst. Especially Pakistan has a very brittle homefront, dealing with two growing insurgencies in the North and West and still reeling from the violent Imran Khan/PTI crackdown two years ago - which brought the current junta to power. It's fifth generation warfare and one way to decide modern wars between peer competitors barring large scale troop movements.

As for redrawing the LoC, that's still quite a few steps away and would require significant logistics and troop build up. To me Modi seems to be to prudent a politician to take such a risk, and the Pakistani economy is too weak to support a large scale invasion of enemy terrain. Moreover too many players on international stage would lose freak out if that'd happen.
 
Operation Sindoor started as a punitive strike meant to re-establishment the Indian deterrent and decapitate some JeM and LeT leadership, aka settle the score and quench the bloodthirst of the BJP Hindutva electorate bloc that Modi primarily draws his support from. That was and officially still is the Indian strategic objective.

The Pakistani are primarily concerned with the Indus Water Treaty. The IWT was suspended/cancelled by India in the aftermath of the Pahalgam terror attack, to be used as a bargaining chip by New Delhi. The Indus is vital for Pakistan because the majority of its water comes from the Indus and its 6 branches. Nearly all Pakistani threats are linked to the IWT. Without the Indus most of Pakistan would turn into a desert. Despite the Treaty suspension it is not sure to what extent India is able to actually fiddle the water supply.

View attachment 20771

The scope of the operation has de facto widened since Operation Sindoor started, primarily due to the swift Pakistani tit for tat reaction. That's the escalation ladder, where two foes either try to one up each other, or one side established escalatory dominance ergo starts controlling the pace and outcome of events on the ground.

The current drone and missile strikes are not just random acts of aggression. Both India and Pakistan are targeting radar systems, forward airbases and AD systems. Strategic bomber ABs and missile silos could be next, aka both sides are trying to degrade each other's integrated AD systems, radar capacities and ISR capabilities. If one side manages to achieve air domination it will tilt the balance of power possibly leading to concessions at the negotiating table at best, and domestic unrest, economic collapse and loss of confidence in the responsible political+military elite at worst. Especially Pakistan has a very brittle homefront, dealing with two growing insurgencies in the North and West and still reeling from the violent Imran Khan/PTI crackdown two years ago - which brought the current junta to power. It's fifth generation warfare and one way to decide modern wars between peer competitors barring large scale troop movements.

As for redrawing the LoC, that's still quite a few steps away and would require significant logistics and troop build up. To me Modi seems to be to prudent a politician to take such a risk, and the Pakistani economy is too weak to support a large scale invasion of enemy terrain. Moreover too many players on international stage would lose freak out if that'd happen.

Why are these two mud people nations doing this on the global scale though? Is it because EU is showing such weakness or is it because they feel they can now "dominate"?

Scary to think these clowns both have nukes.
 
Why are these two mud people nations doing this on the global scale though? Is it because EU is showing such weakness or is it because they feel they can now "dominate"?

Scary to think these clowns both have nukes.

The EU never decided jackshit on the Subcontinent but the US most definitely does. Vance yesterday pulled his hands of the dossier.



To answer your question as to Why now? you'll have to go back to April 22 firstly, and the 80 years before that secondly. There is a lot of speculation on the Pahangam terror attack. Some believe the perps were indeed Pakistan supported terror outfits (LeT did claim the attack initially), and some believe there are there bad actors involved - with accusations ranging from Indian spooks (RAW), to US spooks, (CIA) to Chinese spooks (MSS).

Also keep in mind that the attack happened during JD Vance's India visit, just like the 2020 Delhi riots happened during Trump's visit, the 2013 Bodh Gaya blasts happened around Biden's visit, the 2006 Varanasi Railway bombings happened during Bush's visit and Chattinsinghpura happened during Clinton's 2000 visit. So obviously some sleeper cells get activated whenever a US bigwig is in town.

JD Vance's India visit carried massive importance for what it's worth, the US is looking to solidly lock India into the Transatlantic powerstructures and make it the Southern bastion against China. Some believe that the US letting India have a go is a way of testing the Indians as to see how they fare in a modern air dominated conflicted, and if they are ready to hold back the Chinese in a future (limited) conflict. Another interesting (yet farfetched) theory is that handing India a slice of Kashmir was the price the US paid for getting them on board in countering China.
 
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My first thought is that India and China need a long and drawn out land war to thin out the young male population of both countries. The young mothers in both countries love to commit female infanticide because “girl babies are bad” in their logic. That leads to a shortage of women and a fucked up society over time

Not sure if that happens between China and India or if Pakistan and India are crazy enough to nuke each other now or not
 
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