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The End of The Russian-Ukrainian War

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Rax Moscow said:
And if Ukraine keeps on resisting Russia and attacking it again and again (particularly continuing the terror attacks against apartment buildings in Crimea and Russia), then Russia will roll through Odessa and take more and more until there is no Ukraine left.
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Exactly. I think it was a good move from Russia to declare the demilitarization of Ukraine as one of the main goals because it allows you to stretch your territorial claims depending on the military-political situation.

I think Russia's openness to negoatiations is genuine. I also think that Russia wouldn't want to take Odessa if the goal of demilitarozation would be achieved at the negotiation table. Whatever keeps NATO from turning the Black Sea into its inner lake would be acceptable to Russia. Partly because of the cost sink issue touched upon be Samseau. But only partly. Ukraine to Russia is not Afghanistan/Iraq to US, you don't measure such things as history/roots/collective memory in shekels.
Samseau said:
which is take over Ukraine (a massive cost sink for them)
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On the other hand, Russia takes following into account.

1. The Minsk agreements were a betrayal.
2. The "peace talks" in Istanbul were a betrayal.
3. AFU's military strategy (lack thereof) consisting of holding every inch of the territory and terrorizing Donbass forces Russia to expand her territorial claims.

It means that the window for "peace talks" is narrowing and the options for Ukraine are shrinking.

Right now I see only one scenario in which Ukraine can continue to exist with more than 50% of its 1991 bordes - coup d'etat and pro-Russian junta signs everything Russia wants it to sign. But this could potentially trigger a NATO invasion. Not very likely, but still probable.
 
Cynllo said:
There's been cases in history when people have lost land, and never got it back, and other times when the land was reclaimed, sometimes after a long wait - Spain, the Judeans, what's left of Armenia, Eastern Ukraine was under Mongol despotism for 600 years.

I told this to one Ukrainian who is now very anti-Russian. If Ukraine wants that land back, it's going to have to wait a long time. I also said that if/when they go into the EU, prepare to have your country slowly dismembered by Euro-communists and mass emigration.

The only sensible position now is a cease fire. Ukraine is not going to agree to cede the land any more than real Serbs would cede Kosovo.
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This land never been Ukrainian, how can they have it back? Not theirs to begin with. "Ukraine" that exists since the 90s is a temporary state that never existed in those borders, not even close. They bit a lot more than they can chew. They simply got those lands by bargaining with communists for bolshevism support, as payment for loyalty, but this is short lived situation. Ukraine does not even have real history of own statehood, always a part of some other state, should be happy and grateful to keep Kiev and whatever is West of it.
 
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tractor said:
Exactly. I think it was a good move from Russia to declare the demilitarization of Ukraine as one of the main goals because it allows you to stretch your territorial claims depending on the military-political situation.

I think Russia's openness to negoatiations is genuine. I also think that Russia wouldn't want to take Odessa if the goal of demilitarozation would be achieved at the negotiation table. Whatever keeps NATO from turning the Black Sea into its inner lake would be acceptable to Russia. Partly because of the cost sink issue touched upon be Samseau. But only partly. Ukraine to Russia is not Afghanistan/Iraq to US, you don't measure such things as history/roots/collective memory in shekels.


On the other hand, Russia takes following into account.

1. The Minsk agreements were a betrayal.
2. The "peace talks" in Istanbul were a betrayal.
3. AFU's military strategy (lack thereof) consisting of holding every inch of the territory and terrorizing Donbass forces Russia to expand her territorial claims.

It means that the window for "peace talks" is narrowing and the options for Ukraine are shrinking.

Right now I see only one scenario in which Ukraine can continue to exist with more than 50% of its 1991 bordes - coup d'etat and pro-Russian junta signs everything Russia wants it to sign. But this could potentially trigger a NATO invasion. Not very likely, but still probable.
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You see the long list of "betrayals" here. So how can one think demilitarization can be achieved at negotiation table? It would be just another draining war for the next generation to fight
 
I'd be wary of all the kool aid and copium that's being spread around. Today's Belgorod bombing (so far 12 civilians killed, many wounded) and taking down of Russian warship in Feodosia 2 days ago are reminders that the war is far from over. It may keep going years from now.
 
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jaguarcat said:
I'd be wary of all the kool aid and copium that's being spread around. Today's Belgorod bombing (so far 12 civilians killed, many wounded) and taking down of Russian warship in Feodosia 2 days ago are reminders that the war is far from over. It may keep going years from now.
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I doubt it, it will be over soon, Ukraine cannot sustain this war of attrition much longer. 2024 or early 25 at the latest.
 
21 civilians died in Belgorod today. It's a message sent, they can just keep bombing cities even if they retreat on the ground, they got long range staff and drones
 
As I'm Russian speaking half of the time and my life is heavily affected by this war, all the tales about near end of the war are getting tiring. We heard them from the start. It was2 weeks, one month, 3 minths, one year, etc. Smart people knew from the start this is gor years. It's a long term situation possibly similar to Middle East. There might be a temporary peace agreement that won't be lasting until there us truly neutral government sitting in Kiev, which the US is not going to allow. You can not bankrupt soneone who can print dollars, they will just let dollar loose its value but they won't quit printing. Its not even remotely similar to Afghanistan, there is much more at stake here. This is China on the chessboard too, entire Eurasia.
 
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jaguarcat said:
21 civilians died in Belgorod today. It's a message sent, they can just keep bombing cities even if they retreat on the ground, they got long range staff and drones
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The ability of Russia to kill civilians at will outpaces that ability of the Ukraine by orders of magnitude. Russia is not evil, and does not want to do so, but if they keep murdering innocent civilians it may respond, hoping Keev realizes this is a fools errand. I would suspect Russia would respond with attacking noncombat officials and bureaucrats in the Ukraine government before outright civilians in their homes.

Killing innocents in their homes doesn't prove anything--most countries around the world today can do this type of operation. In fact, a lot of regular people can as well, as we have seen far too often recently in the USA. The difference is, a) unless you are Israel or Ukraine, there are global consequences for those actions, and b) it is not an effective way to wage war so it rarely happens, but Ukraine is not proving anything by doing this.

It is a Jewish tactic, striking out in rage at anyone because you are too ineffectual to do take meaningful action.
More than anything, it smacks of desperation.
 
Rax Moscow said:
The ability of Russia to kill civilians at will outpaces that ability of the Ukraine by orders of magnitude. Russia is not evil, and does not want to do so, but if they keep murdering innocent civilians it may respond, hoping Keev realizes this is a fools errand. I would suspect Russia would respond with attacking noncombat officials and bureaucrats in the Ukraine government before outright civilians in their homes.
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It also demonstrates the massive NPC nature of the pro-Ukrainian side.

“Putin engaged in wanton killing of civilians!”
“Russia is committing genocide!”

Strange how the UN confirms civilian casualties but not military ones. So when you add the UN civilian confirmation tally (which is fairly reliable, it would seem) with the laughable US/NATO/Ukrainian military estimates of Ukrainian soldier deaths, it was usually a 1:1, sometimes 2:1 ratio in favor of civilian fatalities.

Relative to the number of shells, bullets and missiles fired, drones launched etc, this conflict is probably the least fatal to civilians ever. Am I right? Wrong? Someone please correct me if necessary.
 
Like some folks in Russia point out correctly, the new sweet songs from American media, Arestovich, etc sound a lot like a ruse. "We have no money", " Ukraine lost, war is ending", even seem to be hinting of "forgiving" Russia - they will want new Minsk accords, to get time to arm Ukraine better, then renew regilar shellings of Donbass, Crime and Belgorod oblast and conduct war with better weaponry, anti missile defences, intel and better planning, with F-16 etc. Minsk accords, Stambul peace - all the lies that led to some many deaths. If there were no Minsk accords (which was a ruse) Putin could have taken entire Ukraine without much effort or blood back then. If Stambul peace lie was not accepted Kiev would have been taken in spring of 2022 and the war would have been over fast.



I am very worried about the latest hints from the Western media. As if at the snap of a finger, they began to write about the problems of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the professionalism of the Russian army. At the same time, there are signals that no one has closed the door to the West for Russia. Putin, they say, might even be invited to the celebration of the 80th anniversary of the Normandy landings.
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Unfortunately, this world does not change. They write about us in a positive way only when they want something from us. Our partners hope to play on our ambitions and exchange sweet promises about the construction of a Ukrainian defensive line. If we follow the example of our partners, we will find ourselves in the position of the Indians, from whom they bought gold for beads.
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jaguarcat said:
US intelligence now says the war might last another 2, up to 5 years.
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Is that presupposing current financing conditions? I really doubt Ukraine can last that long without the NATO money and weapons. The people are losing their will to fund the Zelensky regime, and politicians are starting to see that it doesn't really benefit them anymore to support it.

South Vietnam did take 20 years to fall, but we budgeted far more annually to keep them propped up compared to what we've given Ukraine.
 
The JQ Noticing has really accelerated as of late. I interface with a 1000+ people a week and I am openly having JQ tunnel dialogue on the regular with strangers. The tunnel thing has been a great JQ opener over the last two weeks and I am finding that people are very receptive to JQ tunnel jokes in particular.

With regards to Ukraine, not alot, but enough people know that Zelensky is jewish and at least a million people have seen him do a fully committed tranny dance in heels on jewtube. By itself this might seem insignificant, but coupled with the Ukrainian populace's lowering war morale, aging and dying military personnel, lack of funding/weaponry, and crushing defeats on the battlefield, the tranny-JQ "leadership" issue could play a small role in the ending of this war.
 
Have read through the thread, but still can't call it, any ideas?

Russia for existential reasons won't give up or concede too much.

If the West stopped helping Ukraine, it would end, and I don't think anything bad would happen to the West. Not in a military sense at least.

Just that the various lies and censorship they so badly want to maintain would be harder to maintain after such a loss. Weapons company shareholders want to see further weapons business. And the tribe that believes they should reclaim some ancestral homeland would have to give up that idea.
 
Thomas More said:
The one thing we can be sure of is that they are lying.
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In the past the deep state was primarily just a group of liars. Now, I think it's just as likely to be people who incompetently just don't know what is going on.

Someone like Ryan Dawson or even half the membership here knows far more about foreign affairs than almost anyone working at the alphabet agencies (and if we were living in stable societies, even including Communist block countries, or the Reich, these are the people that would have been recruited into the diplomatic corps or even government operations).

But you look at the profiles of these agents when they are made public, and you see there are a lot of 20something sexually confused women running things. You look at the "leaders" like Anthony Blinken or David Coen or Mike Pompeo and realize there's no competency at the top either. You look at people like Hillary Clinton or Nikki Haley, and they often can't name a single detail about the place they are raving about doing warfare on (Vivek R. really embarrassed Haley on this point in one of the Republican primary debates)

When you look at, say, Afghanistan, there were tons of resources poured there, and lots of programs in place, not to mention billions in military equipment. I think they really did believe things were going to be find under the propped up government that folded in hours. I mean, you really have to buy in to all their insane theories to do it as your job, and they really do believe race, background, sex, etc. are all irrelevant traits like what color shirt you are wearing. Look at the major strategic blunders in Russia, Israel, Afghanistan, even Taiwan. These are made by people that have no clue what is really happening.

Of course they still lie, but often they don't really know the truth, either.
 
Rax Moscow said:
In the past the deep state was primarily just a group of liars. Now, I think it's just as likely to be people who incompetently just don't know what is going on.

Someone like Ryan Dawson or even half the membership here knows far more about foreign affairs than almost anyone working at the alphabet agencies (and if we were living in stable societies, even including Communist block countries, or the Reich, these are the people that would have been recruited into the diplomatic corps or even government operations).

But you look at the profiles of these agents when they are made public, and you see there are a lot of 20something sexually confused women running things. You look at the "leaders" like Anthony Blinken or David Coen or Mike Pompeo and realize there's no competency at the top either. You look at people like Hillary Clinton or Nikki Haley, and they often can't name a single detail about the place they are raving about doing warfare on (Vivek R. really embarrassed Haley on this point in one of the Republican primary debates)

When you look at, say, Afghanistan, there were tons of resources poured there, and lots of programs in place, not to mention billions in military equipment. I think they really did believe things were going to be find under the propped up government that folded in hours. I mean, you really have to buy in to all their insane theories to do it as your job, and they really do believe race, background, sex, etc. are all irrelevant traits like what color shirt you are wearing. Look at the major strategic blunders in Russia, Israel, Afghanistan, even Taiwan. These are made by people that have no clue what is really happening.

Of course they still lie, but often they don't really know the truth, either.
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Yes but these are just the middle managers. The people who run our governments aren't elected, they are appointed by the bankers who have their own thoughts and goals (none of them which involve us). They don't care if our country is run well. They only care if those who run the country serve them.

So the "deep state" of America may just be a bunch of HR freaks, but, there are far more competent people above them staffing elite NGOs funded by trillions in dark money. These are the ones who orchestrate wars and scams like COVID. All of the talent is at the top of the money pyramid, and it would be dangerous for the usurers to let competent people away from them and run countries like America that could break away.

In other words, the incompetence isn't a bug, but a feature, to keep certain groups entrenched in power.
 
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