China reports bumper April exports ahead of crucial trade talks with US
Trade data shows a rise in shipments to south-east Asia and Europe offsets drop to America
www.ft.com
The China Thread
- Thread starter God's lonely asperger
- Start date
www.ft.com
China reports bumper April exports ahead of crucial trade talks with US
Trade data shows a rise in shipments to south-east Asia and Europe offsets drop to America
These are all places that ship their stuff to the USA. China is off-loading their excess inventory while they still can to third parties. Third parties are hoping their countries can work out a deal for lower tariffs with the USA. Meanwhile factory orders in China have stopped and 1/3 of the economy is turned off until tariff action happens.
If a third of the Chinese economy was really shut down, we would certainly have known about it from sources like the ones I have cited above. That is simply not a realistic assessment.
ASEAN has 700 million people and economies that are growing at an average of 5%, with growing middle classes and fast-growing demand for the kinds of products you see at Walmart. Demand for Chinese goods has also been growing fast in large markets like Russia (where China has replaced Europe and the US), Brazil or even a country hostile to China like India, where for instance the majority of cellphones sold are Chinese.
China is the leading supplier and exporter to most countries in the world today representing around 7 billion people. China also is the largest market today in just about every sector including automotive, consumer electronics, household appliances, phones, furniture etc and total Chinese exports represent less than 20% of their GDP, and the US represents less than 1/6th of these exports:
China Exports, percent of GDP - data, chart | TheGlobalEconomy.com
China: Exports of goods and services as percent of GDP: The latest value from 2023 is 19.74 percent, a decline from 20.79 percent in 2022. In comparison, the world average is 45.64 percent, based on data from 154 countries. Historically, the average for China from 1960 to 2023 is 14.79 percent...
The problem is China is in that graph where exports shrunk as a percentage of GDP China replaced that activity by increasing unproductive construction (i.e. building ghost cities and building empty bullet trains to minor cities, etc) so it is actually even worse. What they should have been doing is increasing domestic consumption but they kept suppressing their currency to boost exports and they had capital controls and a lack of social safety nets, that coupled with the impact of the previous one child policy means that Chinese consumers have very high savings rates which depresses consumption.If a third of the Chinese economy was really shut down, we would certainly have known about it from sources like the ones I have cited above. That is simply not a realistic assessment.
ASEAN has 700 million people and economies that are growing at an average of 5%, with growing middle classes and fast-growing demand for the kinds of products you see at Walmart. Demand for Chinese goods has also been growing fast in large markets like Russia (where China has replaced Europe and the US), Brazil or even a country hostile to China like India, where for instance the majority of cellphones sold are Chinese.
China is the leading supplier and exporter to most countries in the world today representing around 7 billion people. China also is the largest market today in just about every sector including automotive, consumer electronics, household appliances, phones, furniture etc and total Chinese exports represent less than 20% of their GDP, and the US represents less than 1/6th of these exports:
China Exports, percent of GDP - data, chart | TheGlobalEconomy.com
China: Exports of goods and services as percent of GDP: The latest value from 2023 is 19.74 percent, a decline from 20.79 percent in 2022. In comparison, the world average is 45.64 percent, based on data from 154 countries. Historically, the average for China from 1960 to 2023 is 14.79 percent...www.theglobaleconomy.com
China is a house of cards. Eventually it will collapse like the Soviet Union did. I think the collapse will come sometime in the next 20 - 30 years or if not a total collapse at least a very long stagnation like what happened to Japan.
They've already diverted a lot of their real estate investment into production and key industries like EVs, batteries, AI, semiconductors etc, their government let their real estate bubble burst.
The central government puts out directives to the banks and regions, they steer investment according to those top-down long term strategic objectives, then they leverage market forces and competition to achieve these goals. That's how they've ended up with literally hundreds of EV companies in China, most of which will bite the dust, but from which about a dozen companies and megacompanies have emerged.
Japan doesn't have China's domestic market size, that's one of the main differences with China. As a result of this and of being occupied after WW2 (much like Germany), they complied with stifling monetary restrictions under the Plaza Accords, which blunted their economic growth.
China has anticipated the current restrictions since Trump's first mandate and has been pivoting towards new/growing markets like ASEAN (700 million consumers) to dampen the shock from US protectionist policies. They are also gradually pivoting towards greater dependence on their domestic market as their domestic wealth continues to improve.
Electric vehicle growth is not sustainable and will gas out in the next 5 - 10 years because grid systems cannot handle every car being electric. In terms of semi-conductors, AI and batteries technology wise China is far behind other countries because all they can do is copycat. China has advanced its tech by industrial espionage and legally forcing foreign companies in China to have Chinese partners and share intellectual property, etc. The west is tiring of this and when the west puts an end to this China will take a massive hit because they have no creativity or ability to innovate. Chinese people for the most part are like robots and lack any creativity that the western mind has.
Look at the Dutch company AMSL and compare that to anything China is doing in terms of semi conductors. In terms of AI China is well behind things like Grok or Chat GPT, etc. Look at Tesla batteries compared to Chinese batteries etc.
40% of cars sold in China are EVs, and that share is going to do up to 80%+, they haven't had a problem with their grid. In Europe, electricity consumption has declined substantially and there are several countries planning on expanding their nuclear energy programs, while in the US electricity consumption has been flat, and nuclear capacity is set to double or triple by 2050.
China is 5 to 10 years ahead in battery tech today. You have a limited understanding of that and other industries like semiconductors and AI, your perspective boils down to cultural clichés. The majority of the EE design staff in Silicon Valley companies like Nvidia or Intel are actually ethnic Chinese, and the global leaders are Taiwanese (TSMC). The majority, or at the very least a plurality of electrical engineers graduating from top American SV feeder schools like Berkeley, Stanford, CalTech, UCLA etc have been ethnic Chinese for decades now.
It's ASML. China is developing homegrown EUV littography tech, and has already caught up in AI. CATL is already ahead of Tesla in battery tech and production processes.
China Develops Domestic EUV Tool, ASML Monopoly in Trouble
China's domestic extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography development is far from a distant dream. The newest system, now undergoing testing at Huawei's Dongguan facility, leverages laser-induced discharge plasma (LDP) technology, representing a potentially disruptive approach to EUV light...