Stock Market Thread

I will be surprised if the Fed does not extend this:

Bank Term Funding Program​

Last updated:1/24/2024
What's New: On January 24, 2024, the Federal Reserve Board announced the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) will cease making new loans as scheduled on March 11, 2024. In addition, effective January 25, 2024, the interest rate applicable to new BTFP loans has been adjusted such that the rate on new loans extended from now through program expiration will be no lower than the interest rate on reserve balances in effect on the day the loan is made.
One theory is they let it run off to blow up the banks, consolidation occurs, then they come in with more acronym nonsense to help certain players...
 
One theory is they let it run off to blow up the banks, consolidation occurs, then they come in with more acronym nonsense to help certain players...
LOL - Clif High has been on a long rant now about the Biblical Ephalim being the certain players ancestors thus my Alien emoticon like.
 
I always get a bit nervous that things are frothy with any of my stocks (BBAI) when the WallStreetBettors jump on board...

From Fidelity's BBAI Research Button this AM:
BBAI Earnings report confirmed for March 7th, Thursday after market Close...

Social Buzz: Wallstreetbets Stocks Advance Premarket; BigBear.ai, Super Micro Computer Poised for Gains​

MT NEWSWIRES
6:44 AM ET Mar-04-2024
06:44 AM EST, 03/04/2024 (MT Newswires) -- The most-talked-about stocks in the Reddit subforum Wallstreetbets were advancing hours before Monday's opening bell.
BigBear.ai Holdings (BBAI.NaE) rose by 10.1% in pre-bell hours, adding to its 3% increase from the previous session.
Super Micro Computer (SMCI.NaE) advanced by 11.3% hours before the market open, after closing Friday with a 4.5% gain.
MicroStrategy (MSTR.NaE) was 8.4% higher premarket, still advancing after a 5.5% increase at Friday's close.
Marathon Digital (MARA.NaE) was up 6.7% in pre-bell activity, gaining further after a 4.3% increase from the previous session.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM.NaE) rose by 3.9% in premarket hours, following a 4.1% gain from Friday's session.
Nvidia (NVDA.NaE) gained 1.1% hours before the opening bell, after closing Friday with a 4% increase.
Intel (INTC.NaE) advanced by 1.1% in premarket activity, still up after a 1.8% gain from the previous session.
Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF.NaE) was up 1.2% in early pre-bell hours, following a 2.8% increase at Friday's close.
Price: 3.78, Change: +0.32, Percent Change: +9.25
 
Yep phat fingers strike again...
Errata - snippet from Clif High's Xweeter acct:
"the global Intelligence community which means that they are defacto tools of the Elohim worship cult."

Clif's past rants are that the Elohim were the alien ancestors of the 12 tribes thus allowed the tribes to farm and harvest the life energies of the Goyim.
 
Gold broke to new ATH (All Time High) today at $2152 with a close at $2142 - the previous rejection wick high.

The Gold Major 5th Fractal wave (Blue) will complete its ABC up to A=C at Fibonacci Extension 1.0 target 2280 with a
significant and equal probability of testing the 1.618 extension at $2568 before the next major ABC Corrective move down likely during the next Global Markets Crash... Gold being globally Highly Liquid as a hedge against fiat chaos, wars, inflation etc., sells off to cover Equities Margin Calls.

The Auto Fractal Tool is not totally aware of the more complex 5th Wave indeterminant rules and is suffering from premature e-trigulation with the dotted blue A targets. The programmer in Bangalore clearly assumes that once the 5th Wave is higher than the 3rd wave then that must be the 5th top whereas 1.0 and 1.618 A=C targets are both valid Fibonacci 5th Wave Extensions of equal probability.

Point is Gold is breaking out of a 10-year Cup and Handle formation to new all-time highs in the $2200 to $2600 range later this year.

I just bought 100 shares of Sandstorm (SAND) Gold Royalties Stream Corp at 4.57 a share.

SAND as a Gold/Silver royalties streaming company earns 90% Margins... great biz could 2X to 3X on this gold breakout this year...

1709754588215.webp
 
I am holding IONQ as a long-term pure play in Quantum Computing, a future threat to Invidia...

IONQ Pumped up 10% today to $11.30

Smart Money Call Options action:

Bullish option flow detected in IONQ (IONQ) with 17,358 calls trading, 4x expected, and implied vol increasing almost 4 points to 79.45%. Mar-24 11 calls and 3/8 weekly 11.5 calls are the most active options, with total volume in those strikes near 4,000 contracts. The Put/Call Ratio is 0.06. Earnings are expected on May 9th.

Seems positive news leaking to the street...

When long insider/directors buy its normally a good sign for earnings and future innovation and growth.

04:36 PM EST, 03/06/2024 (MT Newswires) -- Harry L. You, Director, on March 05, 2024, executed a purchase for 115,000 shares in Ionq (IONQ) for $1,067,200. Following the Form 4 filing with the SEC, You has control over a total of 2,742,150 shares of the company, with 144,650 shares held directly and 2,597,500 controlled indirectly.

SEC Filing:


Chart ABC corrective A=C target 3.21 however .618 is also technically valid to $8.00 or 0.5 to 9.46 which was tested.

Next resistance up on positive March 9th News Release is blue b wave top at 15.65.

1709843719027.webp
 
Glad I stopped chugging Martinis 15 years ago. Back then my Spider Senses were numbed. Well those Spidy Senses must have worked on Big Bear AI (BBAI) the new Woke former IBMer Female CEO clearly loves to pump and dump like a Vegas hooker rather than look out for her shareholders.

She dumped this stock like a John with HIV... severe pump and huge dump on truly awful numbers.

Glad I took profits after the pump at $3.01

Stock was 4.80 on 4 Mar 24 and today dumped down to $2.57 on horrible sales and earnings...
Losses were 168% worse than "Estimate" and Earnings were $2.2 Million lower that this woke woman CEO and her financial team actually reported and set expectations with the Markets and Shareholders.

Unless Wall Street analysts can speak to all of their Customers and get honest reports of their product and services purchases - not going to get accurate answers from private Companies or Government Agencies, then Wall Street has to depend upon the CEO and CFO for real estimates that reflect the real numbers. Old Wall Street Adage that Bill Gates and Microsoft adhere to;

Under Promise and Over Deliver.

Silver Lining now that we know this woke BBAI management team is executing a highly Volatile Pump and Dump strategy BBAI is liable to be an interesting swing trade on Nvidia AI Pumps and Woke Woman Dumps.

Interesting to observe waves 3, 4 and 5 top actually respected a Fibonacci 2.618 extension up before it turned so Fibonacci Maths still rule the universe even on Pumps and Dumps. Current ABC Retrace looking to bounce the Red 200 Moving Average on this Hourly Chart with a 1.618 test to $2.20.

1709914428542.png

1709914035994.png
 
Last edited:
Gold still making a higher 5th Wave to 2185 at Fibonacci extension .786 (2180) on its way to Fibonacci 1.0 at 2280 with a shorter ABC retrace due to Fed and Biden insane inflation (lies) policies and holding Interest Rates too high for too long.

The 1.618 Fibonacci extension will then be in play late 2024 or early 2025 on the upper yellow trading range trend line (Intersects 1.618 mid Feb 2025).

1709917412354.webp
 
Rolls tagged $5.00 this week new wave 3 top looking for a .382 4th wave retrace to $4.00:

1709927322091.png
 
FYI Since all of the Markets are looking Frothy and Toppy, I have been going through all my AI, Gold Mining, and Uranium positions putting on 5% to 10% Trailing Stop Losses, may even test this with Fidelity BTC. Idea is when you have an Impulsing 3rd or 5th Major Wave Up the trailing stop keeps moving upwards... if you have a 5% or 10% etc., pullback on your choice of Bid or Ask or Last price you are automagicically closed out capturing upside and minimizing downside risk. This has worked very well for me in the past on Options which often trigger overnight when you are still sleeping so a Trailing Stop Loss is a quite useful tool.

Only issue is if we have a massive black swan crash event trailing stop losses might not trigger fast enough.

With all of the Nuclear Sword play and Sabre Rattling going on between NATO and Russia/China, if we miss a trailing stop loss trigger we likely have bigger problems.
 
FYI Now that we are surging up in the Crypto and Stock Markets perhaps even an Austrian Economics School Bubble Blow Off Top - just finished going through all of my Positions on my Fidelity account and was able to place 5% trailing stop losses on all of my positions except for the Crazy Canadian OTC/Pink Sheet Speculative Mining Companies - and - No Trailing Stop Loss allowed on their Fidelity Crypto BTC/USD Buy/Sell/Hold service - Also like most BTC ETFs this Fidelity Crypto Custody service does not allow you to xfer BTC from the Fidelity Crypto Account to your cold storage hardware wallet device.
 
March Stock Market 2009 to 2024 Big Picture ... the Big Market that the Big Dogs play in...

From the Movie Wall Street; Gordon Gecko "You need Cash Reserves to Piss in the Tall Grass with the Big Dogs"

S&P Continuous Futures is the Definition of the Tall Grass - Largest Liquid Tradeable 23x5 (Close at 4:30 to 6PM NYC time Each day for Settlement) Futures Markets on the Planet that are so large and with so many major and retail participants with a level playing field that even the Fed has a hard time Manipulating S&P Futures.

Ten Year +/- Blue Major 5 Wave ES1! ticker for the Continuous S&P Futures Contract
All Time High 5257 or 0.618 left Blue Waves 2-3-4 Fibonacci Extension, Today current ESM2024 Contract @ 5232.
Right Wave 5 Fib Retrace target of leg A at .618 = 4172 The current ABC down off of Blue Major 5 High to 3400-3500 Corrective Range.
Then following the current corrective ABC cycle the new 5 Wave Motive cycle up to target Left Fibonacci Targets of 1.0 at 6120 end of 2024 and 1.618 at 7748 perhaps just before NATO-Russia Nuclear War in mid 2025. Afterwards we may be back to trading Sticks and Rocks for Spears and Hammers. Just Saying.

1710258226885.webp
 
I just bought 100 shares of Sandstorm (SAND) Gold Royalties Stream Corp at 4.57 a share.
So $457 worth. If that's the scale of your investments, aren't you better off figuring out how to make more money at your main hustle/job and buying something simple like an S&P tracker, like VOO?

It all seems like so much effort when the indexes do so well. Dead people's portfolios do better than living people's.
 
So $457 worth. If that's the scale of your investments, aren't you better off figuring out how to make more money at your main hustle/job and buying something simple like an S&P tracker, like VOO?

It all seems like so much effort when the indexes do so well. Dead people's portfolios do better than living people's.
"If that's the scale of your investments"

Not withstanding your condescending remarks which would normally shut down any more civil conversation I will share facts for the benefit of other Christian Brothers here trying to build financially sound lives in order to raise Christian Families. I was specifically invited here to CiK to share the TA and Markets Analysis wisdom I have gained over a lifetime of learning from SUCCESSFUL Experts.

FACT: My Markets Advisor has generated over $4 Billion+ incremental trading profits including BTC Futures, Energy Futures and S&P Futures etc., over the past 5 years through both the Covid Crash and Recovery. We have two focused Market Reviews every week that he enjoys over strong Maduro Cigars. He observes full 2A Concealed Armed OpSec due to LEO warnings and has no active social media and leads a very private life.

My main hustle is doing fine thank you.

Rather than posting charts telling Brothers what to do, I prefer to show them both my successful trades as well as losses.

The reason for a small position in Gold & Silver Miners and Royalty Streaming companies is that there is a current disconnect between the surging price of Gold to a recent 2195 All Time High and the Senior and Junior Mining Companies that are still trading sideways or down.

The small position of 100 shares that you scoffed at is actually referred to as an Asymmetric Position designed to keep SAND front of Mind because it can take a few months (3 Mos=1 Quarter) for the rapid increase in the Price of Gold and lesser Extent Silver to move the Major GDX and Junior GDXJ Miners and Royalty Streaming Companies profits...

Furthermore the 1 hour SAND Chart (Always Run the Charts to know Where you are Now, Where you are Coming From and Where you are going to.) shows reason for a cautious small tracking position.

SAND Chart Shows a recent Major Blue 5 Wave Up that topped into a 5 Wave high of 4.80 turning into a standard ABC retrace pattern.

This Correction will test the 200 MA in the Range of 4.30 to 4.50 - the Optimal Entry Range this Cycle.

The Next 5 Wave impulsing Cycle move Up will test the 5.00 to 6.00 range while waiting for Higher Priced Gold and Silver Mining Profits to show up in the SAND Royalty Streams which will accelerate Miners and Royalty Streaming Companies Profits and Share Prices....

Typically when institutions take notice and back up the trucks to load up.

Breaking above a 10-year Gold Cup and Handle pattern indicates a new long Precious Metal Bull Run.

Miners and Royalty Cos in this scenario can provide 3X to 10X+ returns over the multi-year Bull Run especially if you throw in a Black Swan SHTF scenario.

1710270309904.png
 
Last edited:
Interesting News 1March2024:

Apollo Global Management Chief Economist Torsten Slok predicts that the Federal Reserve will NOT cut interest rates in 2024. His reasoning is based on two key factors:
  1. Re-Accelerating US Economy: Slok believes that the US economy is on a path of re-acceleration. As economic activity picks up, the need for rate cuts diminishes.
  2. Rise in Underlying Inflation: With inflationary pressures increasing, the Federal Reserve’s focus may shift toward managing inflation rather than implementing rate cuts.
In summary, according to Torsten Slok, the Fed’s actions in 2024 are more likely to involve rate increases rather than cuts.

 
Interesting News 1March2024:

Apollo Global Management Chief Economist Torsten Slok predicts that the Federal Reserve will NOT cut interest rates in 2024. His reasoning is based on two key factors:
  1. Re-Accelerating US Economy: Slok believes that the US economy is on a path of re-acceleration. As economic activity picks up, the need for rate cuts diminishes.
  2. Rise in Underlying Inflation: With inflationary pressures increasing, the Federal Reserve’s focus may shift toward managing inflation rather than implementing rate cuts.
In summary, according to Torsten Slok, the Fed’s actions in 2024 are more likely to involve rate increases rather than cuts.

I think this is generally the case but it is somewhat dependent on how meaningful they believe the "debt" or debt/GDP matters. That is, what's the range where even they start to worry. The treasury needs a rate cut more than anyone else does, to be honest.
 
This startling interview with the Contrarian David Hunter @davehcontrarian on X, really got my attention:

Takeaways:

Market Melt-up to S&P 7,000+ by end of year 3Q 2024 with Gold 3000oz and Silver 60oz

Then Global Bust major crash (18 to 24 Mos) very end 2024 into 2025 with 80% Crash in S&P 500, NASDAQ, DOW etc. Oil drops to $30 Barrel during BUST.

During 2008/09 Crash even Gold and Silver contracted 50%+/-

Global Bust lasts 18 Months, 10 Year Interest rates drop to 0%, Stocks and Real Estate and Main St Biz bust worse that 2008/09 approaching 1929 Crash. Worst post WWII Era to 2024 crash.

T-Bills and Long Treasury Bonds (TLT, ZROZ ETFs) only assets to preserve wealth. When 10 Year Treasuries Cut to Zero existing 5% Treasuries in 20 to 30 year Bond maturity ETFs or from Treasury Direct will likely rise significantly (TLT now 92 likely to double to $180-$200 range).

Fed Prints $20 Trillion in response. Causes Argentina levels of High Inflation in USA by 2028/2029 (20 to 25%) worse that Volkers 1980s.
When % rates spike back above 5% will turn into time to short TLT and ZROZ.

Inflation causes spikes in Gold $20,000 oz Silver $500 oz, Oil $500. Gold and Silver Miners 10Xplus. Bitcoin = Moon Shot.

20 million+ Illegal Aliens go to war with Urban BLMs and Antifas, all Run Amok looting, robbing and burning cities and suburbs to the ground.

Urban Zones become dangerous Food Deserts, the people go hungry Haiti Style Gang Chaos reigns supreme in Cities/Blue States.

In FULL PANIC MODE X, Millennials and Zoomer Gen Snowflakes all wind up in insane asylums or FEMA Camps with nervous breakdowns due to lack of safe spaces.

Middle Class gets wiped out Venezuela and Argentina Style.

Strong Men create Good Times
Good Times Create Weak Soft Woke Men
Weak Soft Woke Men Create Hard Times

 
Last edited:
Due to all of the recent major hackings especially ransomware of Corp and Gov Networks/Servers by CCP Hackers, Rooskie & Ukraine Mafiya Hackers for $$$, Iranian and North Korean Hackers etc. Hacking and Ransomware attacks are clearly a growth industry.

Therefore, I bought a tracking share of the BUG Cybersecurity ETF at $29.995 to keep an eye on BUG. Bug Daily Chart looks to have completed a major 5 wave motive up move and is now in the requisite A-B-C Waves corrective cycle. Concerns for Cybersecurity Companies revenue growth will be the Crack Up Boom and then Global Bust that cuts corporate Capex spending and even renewal licenses spending as all Spending, IT and Cybersecurity included will come under budget scrutiny in 2025. Still some time to catch the Melt Up move to S&P 7000 per Contrarian David Hunter (YT Video Interview Above) before the 2025 Global Bust. We are in the B turn into the C leg with Targets of $27.50 to $25 range before the final Q4 Bull Run Top and a new 5 Motive Waves Cycle up to $34 to $42+/- range.

1710791691410.png

Current BUG Holdings (Subject to change at any time):

Symbol Company Geography Weight
CRWD CrowdStrike Class A United States 8.09
ZS Zscaler Inc United States 6.94
S SentinelOne Inc Class A United States 6.34
GEN Gen Digital Inc United States 5.71
PANW Palo Alto Networks Inc United States 5.64
FTNT Fortinet Inc United States 5.45
OKTA Okta Inc Class A United States 5.38
CHKP Check Point Software Israel 5.34
VRNS Varonis Systems Inc United States 5.19
CYBR CyberArk Software Ltd United States 5.18
TENB Tenable Holdings Inc United States 4.65
4704 Trend Micro Inc Japan 4.43

RPD Rapid7 Inc United States 4.24
ATEN A10 Networks Inc United States 4.17
QLYS Qualys Inc United States 3.84
RDWR Radware Ltd United States 3.78
DARK Darktrace PLC United Kingdom 3.57
BB BlackBerry Ltd Canada 2.55
053800 AHNLAB Inc South Korea 2.55
2326 Digital Arts Inc Japan 1.98
OSPN OneSpan Inc United States 1.81
4475 Hennge KK Ordinary Shares Japan 1.63
TLS Telos Corp United States 1.20
ARQQ Arqit Quantum Inc United Kingdom 0.33
Cash† United States 0.01

Go figure, not on the list is my favorite Total Security Vendor BitDefender that I run on all my PCs and Mobile Devices (Anti Malware PC and Appliance Firewalls, Corporate Security Suite with instant Full Cloud Security collation and alerts and updates of all know global hacks and malware) including a ransomware blocking and recovery feature.

FYI: Bitdefender Technologies Group, being a private company, does not have publicly traded stock on the EU or Romanian stock exchanges. As of now, Bitdefender remains privately held, and its ownership is not publicly traded like stocks listed on the exchanges. If you’re interested in investing in cybersecurity companies, you might want to explore publicly traded alternatives in the industry.
 
Last edited:
Back
Top