Prices, Inflation, Deflation, Interest Rates & The Federal Reserve

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NoMoreTO

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This I think was the most popular thread I had in the Old World Forum.

All things ferderal reserve. Inflation Deflation arguments encouraged! After all, either way they have the money and the populace will get squeezed by the Central Banking System.

It was kicked off at that time with an Uneducated economist video then, I'll do the same now.

Here, Federal Reserve documents outlines the plan to generate inflation in plain sight to regain their tools. They inflated on purpose, these guys know what they are doing.

 
Just got back from the grocery. Store bacon from the meat dept was $9.50 a pound. I mentioned it to the butcher. He said yea, when we opened the store 3-4 years ago the regular price was $4 a pound. Almost 150% increase in 4 years. Insane. (The prepackaged stuff, besides being questionable quality, was more expensive, $6 to $8 for 12 oz)

Bacon is now over $1 a slice.
 
NoMoreTO said:
Here, Federal Reserve documents outlines the plan to generate inflation in plain sight to regain their tools. They inflated on purpose, these guys know what they are doing.
Click to expand...
In his recent David Lin conversation, Richard Werner said that BlackRock said the necessary condition to create (summer 2019) was inflation, but they didn't say why. It was the plan that was told to everyone. The plan is always to inflate and lie about the inflation, so they can take advantage of the Cantillon effect, booms and busts, and the ability to allow the government to roll over debt that is made possible by borrowing/printing and lying about "inflation."
 
There's a reason that the 16th Amendment authorizing personal income taxes, the IRS, the Federal Reserve and the Anti-Defamation League (ADL) all came into existence in 1913. Basically, the Federal Reserve (and other central banks of the world) are giant scams -- they print money out of thin air and then loan those printed funds at interest to national governments. They are the real rulers of the world - the Rothschilds, Warburgs, Schiffs, Milners, Rockefellers, etc. - and they hide in plain sight, using elected politicians as frontmen to absorb public anger as well as using divide-and-conquer tactics to divide the world populations along race, gender, religious, sexual orientation, etc. grounds so people are too busy infighting to focus on the central bank theft. This post delves into the details of this unprecedented scam: https://neofeudalism.substack.com/p/goals-motivations-and-strategies

Below is an image of Evelyn de Rothschild and Prince Charles. Who looks like the senior figure and who looks like the junior figure in this relationship?

1699933260033.webp
 
Blade Runner said:
In his recent David Lin conversation, Richard Werner said that BlackRock said the necessary condition to create (summer 2019) was inflation, but they didn't say why. It was the plan that was told to everyone. The plan is always to inflate and lie about the inflation, so they can take advantage of the Cantillon effect, booms and busts, and the ability to allow the government to roll over debt that is made possible by borrowing/printing and lying about "inflation."
Click to expand...

To devalue big government debt, that's why they must have it. They will need a lot more of it. Tough line to walk between having to devalue the currency while maintaining its reserve status.
 
JR5 said:
There's a reason that the 16th Amendment authorizing personal income taxes, the IRS, the Federal Reserve and the Anti-Defamation League (ADL) all came into existence in 1913. Basically, the Federal Reserve (and other central banks of the world) are giant scams -- they print money out of thin air and then loan those printed funds at interest to national governments. They are the real rulers of the world - the Rothschilds, Warburgs, Schiffs, Milners, Rockefellers, etc. - and they hide in plain sight, using elected politicians as frontmen to absorb public anger as well as using divide-and-conquer tactics to divide the world populations along race, gender, religious, sexual orientation, etc. grounds so people are too busy infighting to focus on the central bank theft. This post delves into the details of this unprecedented scam: https://neofeudalism.substack.com/p/goals-motivations-and-strategies

Below is an image of Evelyn de Rothschild and Prince Charles. Who looks like the senior figure and who looks like the junior figure in this relationship?

View attachment 1172
Click to expand...

They say JP Morgan, the owner of Titanic, had sunk it to kill a group of millionaires who opposed Federal Reserve creation, Astor, Guggenheim and Straus. JP Morgan was supposed to be on Titanic himself but cancelled. It was 1912, too many coincidences, definitely.
 
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Wow. That's actually an article on The Atlantic. Inflation is your fault.

I'll ignore the fact that "buying things" doesn't cause inflation, and just point out that even her weird theory doesn't make sense. She is claiming that people deserve high inflation because they "won't stop buying things", giving proof like:

Online shopping jumped 7.8 percent over the Thanksgiving long weekend, more than analysts had anticipated.
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Well, toots, did you measure this increase in dollars or numbers of presents? Because what's happening is people are buying the same, or even fewer presents, (because they are poor), but because of price inflation the PRICE IN DOLLARS of those purchases is 7.8% higher than it was last year.

That's because the money supply has been inflated by about 1/3 since covid. And inflation, according to shadowstats, was 9% (officially) or 17+% if they measured it the 1990 way, without the fake price substition nonsense.

So yeah, if we were buying the same things as before, our expenses would be up 17%, not 7.8. In other words, we HAVE cut back our spending, because we all feel poorer.

So she goes around measuring everything in price, not quantity, and pretends that people are spending more.
That's like saying "Why did you increase your spending to $6 a week on eggs when last year you spent $3"?

Because the price of eggs doubled! You're still buying the same 12 eggs every week. There is no "increase in egg buying"!

People hate inflation, just not enough to spend less:
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Huh? Please. Enlighten me. How does one spend less when there is inflation? By not having Christmas?
My heating bill is $100 more than it's ever been. Should I just shiver or wear a giant coat when I sleep?

I'm still heating the same house with the same amount of gas as always (more or less), but the price is up almost 40%.
But I'm not "increasing my use of gas by 40%." I'm probably using less, setting the thermostat down because its so darn expensive, while still getting a higher bill.

The reality is, when you look across the board at cars, food, energy, clothing, etc. the sales of all these things are DOWN. Which means we are cutting back due to inflation. It also means we are in recession. But if they ignore the production numbers and just measure everything by its price they can pretend sales of everything is increasing because its price is so high. it's like telling the Weimer grandmother "Why are you spending a wheelbarrow full of money on bread! You should cut back! Don't you know we are having inflation?"

The problem is I think some of these Keynesian economists actually take articles like this seriously.
 
It´s all fabricated. All bullshit. There´s inflation because it was intentionally created. And the solution for inflation is always searched on the demand side never on the offer. If the demand increases normally the offer should increase also to stabilize prices. But this would mean the cartel companies owned by Vanguard, etc, would lose market. And control. Because in the end it´s about control. Only with a cartel can they make those stupid ads nobody enjoys and still survive.
 
Rax Moscow said:
But if they ignore the production numbers and just measure everything by its price they can pretend sales of everything is increasing because its price is so high. it's like telling the Weimer grandmother "Why are you spending a wheelbarrow full of money on bread! You should cut back! Don't you know we are having inflation?
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Well stated. Yes, it's similar to falling for the nominal GDP trick. Since GDP is up in $, we are more productive, right? LOL.
 
magoo said:
It´s all fabricated. All ********. There´s inflation because it was intentionally created. And the solution for inflation is always searched on the demand side never on the offer. If the demand increases normally the offer should increase also to stabilize prices. But this would mean the cartel companies owned by Vanguard, etc, would lose market. And control. Because in the end it´s about control. Only with a cartel can they make those stupid ads nobody enjoys and still survive.
Click to expand...
I've been arguing with the deflationistas for at least 3 years now, and they've been wrong and haven't admitted it, since they keep focusing (too much) on the demand side, just as you say. They don't seem to realize that if you have lower productivity, there is more scarcity. That's the supply side of cost that balances out "deflation" which is never actually deflation either (sigh, it's amazing even smart people keep messing this language game up), it's just disinflation since the printing is the matrix game.

Yes, you can get temporary decreases in price due to fluctuating markets, due to variable demand and supply. But the commodities bull run is finally here now because no one has invested in things we actually need, so production will be short for nearly all things, and thus prices for those things will certainly not go down long term. Especially in expanding money supply economies.
 
Rax Moscow said:
Wow. That's actually an article on The Atlantic. Inflation is your fault.

I'll ignore the fact that "buying things" doesn't cause inflation, and just point out that even her weird theory doesn't make sense. She is claiming that people deserve high inflation because they "won't stop buying things", giving proof like:



Well, toots, did you measure this increase in dollars or numbers of presents? Because what's happening is people are buying the same, or even fewer presents, (because they are poor), but because of price inflation the PRICE IN DOLLARS of those purchases is 7.8% higher than it was last year.

That's because the money supply has been inflated by about 1/3 since covid. And inflation, according to shadowstats, was 9% (officially) or 17+% if they measured it the 1990 way, without the fake price substition nonsense.

So yeah, if we were buying the same things as before, our expenses would be up 17%, not 7.8. In other words, we HAVE cut back our spending, because we all feel poorer.

So she goes around measuring everything in price, not quantity, and pretends that people are spending more.
That's like saying "Why did you increase your spending to $6 a week on eggs when last year you spent $3"?

Because the price of eggs doubled! You're still buying the same 12 eggs every week. There is no "increase in egg buying"!


Huh? Please. Enlighten me. How does one spend less when there is inflation? By not having Christmas?
My heating bill is $100 more than it's ever been. Should I just shiver or wear a giant coat when I sleep?

I'm still heating the same house with the same amount of gas as always (more or less), but the price is up almost 40%.
But I'm not "increasing my use of gas by 40%." I'm probably using less, setting the thermostat down because its so darn expensive, while still getting a higher bill.

The reality is, when you look across the board at cars, food, energy, clothing, etc. the sales of all these things are DOWN. Which means we are cutting back due to inflation. It also means we are in recession. But if they ignore the production numbers and just measure everything by its price they can pretend sales of everything is increasing because its price is so high. it's like telling the Weimer grandmother "Why are you spending a wheelbarrow full of money on bread! You should cut back! Don't you know we are having inflation?"

The problem is I think some of these Keynesian economists actually take articles like this seriously.
Click to expand...

Yes, people cutting consumption, alone, can not fix inflation. This leads to less production and imports, next it leads to less jobs and taxes paid, and, as a result, in government printing more money due to less tax receipts and increased scarcity of goods, which encourages higher prices. So cutting consumption isn't a magical fix, there are examples of severe reduction in consumption followed by hyperinflation. Hyperinflation can go in parallel with extreme recession and usually does. Another thing is there are cartel like behaviors by major suppliers, US food market is highly monopolized by several big corps, and other goods market is also pretty monopolized outside big cities, by Walmart and Amazon, they they keep prices high.
 
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We are currently in motion with the 40 year trend reversal (from the 80s) where secular rates are going higher. The breakout has occurred, which is why we will re-test 5% on the 10 year yield soon. It will be choppy, but it will keep creeping up and very soon you'll see that the US government or Fed can't really do anything about it. They'll try, but if they do yield curve control it will be the final stages of the US dollar being anywhere near what it once was, and that is obviously also a history of being debased over time.
 
Apparently, part of why people keep buying all kinds of stuff despite high prices is Doom spending, and they are taking on new debt to pay for purchases. Almost 1/3 of Americans engages in doom spending. People do it to relieve stress from wonky economy and inflation.

Another thing is when people expect prices to go up/inflation to continue they sometimes buy things earlier than needed and stock up on goods.
Doom spending is different than that in a way that instead of stocking up on needed stuff, people tend to buy luxury and unnecessary items, toys, highly discretionary stuff.
 
Fed leaving little to the imagination today about rate cuts in '24. Inflation is easing because prices for goods are running head first into what people are able or willing to pay. The recent price increases on goods has seriously altered what I buy more than any other time in my life. Everyone around me is feeling this. My co-workers with families who aren't already homeowners are beside themselves because housing is out of reach. And they are Union workers with good jobs.

Tl;dr: Powell "pivoted".

Instead of the old mantra of "don't fight The Fed", it appears The Fed's new mantra is "don't fight the market" as the Dot Plot adjusted down significantly more dovishly than expected, narrowing the gap to the market's expectation significantly...
Click to expand...
 
The analysis of the bond market seems schizophrenic right now. You've got greater inversion with the 10 year going below 4, but you've got guys like Mannarino saying that high rates are only problematic. If yields go lower because "people are buying", why would people continue to buy if they get lower yields and inflation is still high-ish? If a recession is here and thus demand was hit hard, which was the plan ... and the inversion signals recession eventually ... I don't get why anyone would buy bonds? Strictly to front run rate cuts?

Is this just constant short term trading? It's all over the place.
 
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