Good rundown on the silver situation, he's elaborating on points I have made above:
"For decades, the global silver market operated on a simple assumption: Nobody would actually demand delivery of the metal they owned on paper. That assumption just collapsed. In the first seven days of January, 33.45 million ounces of silver were physically withdrawn from COMEX for delivery. That's 26% of COMEX's registered inventory gone in a single week.
Traders who had March futures contracts were paying premiums to ROLL BACKWARDS to January, demanding immediate delivery weeks early. They weren't willing to wait. They wanted metal in hand.
Here's the China problem you have to understand if you're buying silver: On January 1, 2026, Beijing implemented export controls that fundamentally changed global silver supply. This wasn't a minor tweak. They reclassified silver as a strategic material, putting it in the same category as rare earths. To export silver from China now, companies need government licenses. Only 44 firms qualified. They must have annual refining capacity of 80+ tonnes and credit lines exceeding $30 million.
Why does this matter? China controls 60-70% of global refined silver exports. The world's dominant refining hub just effectively ring-fenced its supply for domestic use. The physical-paper divergence: Here's where it gets uncomfortable...
In Shanghai, physical silver trades at 12-13% premiums over Western paper prices. In Dubai, premiums hit 40%. In Japan, secondary market premiums reached 60%. Meanwhile, the paper-to-physical ratio on COMEX sits at 356:1. For every one ounce of deliverable silver, there are 356 ounces of paper claims.
The system worked because nobody called the bluff. But now they're calling it. The supply deficit reality: The silver market has been in structural deficit for five consecutive years. Cumulative shortfalls from 2021-2025 total roughly 820 million ounces. Nearly an entire year of global mine production. Mine production peaked in 2016. Roughly 71% of mined silver comes as a byproduct from gold, copper, lead, and zinc mines.
So even if silver prices double, miners can't easily ramp production. Their operations are driven by base-metal economics, not silver prices. The industrial demand trap: Unlike gold, silver isn't primarily a monetary metal. Industrial demand now represents 59% of total consumption. Solar panels. EVs. AI data centers. Semiconductors. This demand is price-inelastic. Factories don't stop production because silver got expensive... They pay whatever it takes to keep lines running.
So what does this mean? Silver is now in backwardation. Spot prices above futures prices. That's rare. And it's significant. Backwardation tells you buyers want metal NOW, not paper promises for later.
The last time silver showed this kind of sustained backwardation was before the 2011 spike to $49. The gold-silver ratio has compressed from over 100:1 in recent years to around 50:1 now. Historically, that ratio has traded as low as 15-20:1 in extreme moves.If gold holds and the ratio compresses further, silver will go beyond $150. It's math.
My take: Silver is no longer just an industrial metal with monetary characteristics. It's becoming a triple-identity asset: industrial input, monetary metal, and strategic material. When China weaponizes export controls, when Western inventories drain, when paper claims vastly exceed physical supply, and when industrial demand is non-negotiable, you get exactly what we're seeing... A structural repricing.
Pullbacks will be sharp. The CME has already raised margin requirements. But the underlying dynamics aren't speculation. They're geology, geopolitics, and supply-demand math. Physical silver in your possession has no counterparty risk. Paper claims on silver that may or may not exist? That's a different bet entirely. If you don't hold it, you don't own it."
